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Why do we save so little? We overestimate the happiness from spending. But with any luck, repeated disappointments will bring wisdom.

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Investing Fundamentals: A Simple Guide for Beginners

"Excellent article. Now let’s forward it to our young relatives and friends who have limited attention spans."
- Nick Politakis
Read more »

The reality of Social Security and Medicare- My real life experience.

"I’ve only been on Medicare for nine months and am not drawing Social Security yet, so I don’t have many opinions about the whole thing. Because of my pensions and my husband still working, our IRMAA bite is pretty substantial. I don’t feel angry about that—paying IRMAA means you’re doing well, after all—but it’s made it harder to feel like I’m “getting something I paid for.” I do like going to the doctor and not having to pay a $35 co-pay anymore, and my prescriptions are cheaper, too. 👍"
- DrLefty
Read more »

Retirement Toys

"I think that’s right—maybe hit by a car? I remember Jonathan mentioning it a couple of times."
- DrLefty
Read more »

Ageing and the Open Road

RECENTLY I TOOK a free ride on a driverless bus trialling its proposed route, part of my local administration's ten-year rollout plan for self-driving public transport and taxis. I see real potential in this technology, and I'm hoping the infrastructure and implementation stay on schedule. That hope is mostly selfish, I'll admit. In fifteen years I'll be in my mid-seventies, and I'd love to ditch my car and rely on cheap, dependable robo-taxis instead. It would give me freedom precisely in that decade of life when driving starts to become genuinely problematic. I'm planning to change my car in 2027 for a modern hybrid, but in the back of my mind is the thought that it could be my last. If the self-driving rollout hits its targets, I can see the case for never buying another. The advantages for someone in my demographic at that stage of life would be hard to argue with. Think about what car ownership actually costs. There's the purchase price, insurance, road tax, fuel, servicing, tyres, and the occasional bill that arrives like a punch to the stomach. For most people, a car is the second most expensive thing they own after their home. In retirement, when income typically drops and budgets tighten, that ongoing drain becomes harder to justify. This is especially true when the car spends the vast majority of its time sitting on a driveway looking pretty. A robo-taxi model, where you pay only for the journeys you actually take, could represent a dramatic shift in how much personal transport really costs. The numbers, I suspect, will be compelling — with current estimates from real world operations suggesting an 80% reduction in the cost of fares being achievable. Then there's the question of independence. This is the one that matters most to me personally, and I'd imagine it resonates with anyone approaching or already in their later years. Giving up your car keys is one of those milestones that nobody really talks about, but everyone in that demographic understands. It represents a loss of spontaneity and self-sufficiency that can genuinely affect quality of life. The difference with autonomous vehicles is that surrendering the wheel doesn't have to mean surrendering the freedom. A reliable, affordable self-driving taxi available on demand restores something that previous generations simply had to go without once driving became difficult. This could be a trip to the supermarket on a weekday morning or a late evening visit to family. The safety dimension is also worth considering. Reaction times slow as we age. Night vision deteriorates. Concentration over long distances becomes harder. Most older drivers are aware of this and manage it carefully, but there comes a point for everyone where the road becomes a source of anxiety rather than freedom. Autonomous vehicles remove that calculation entirely. You get in, state your destination, and arrive, without the cognitive load of navigating, anticipating other drivers, or worrying whether your responses are still sharp enough. That peace of mind shouldn't be underestimated. There are wider social benefits too. Older people who can no longer drive are disproportionately affected by isolation. Poor rural transport links, infrequent bus services, and the general assumption that everyone has access to a car all contribute to a situation where many retired people find their world gradually shrinking. Autonomous vehicles, particularly if integrated intelligently with existing public transport, have the potential to reverse that. A robo-taxi that can be summoned by a smartphone, or even a simple voice command, could keep people connected to their communities, their families, and their routines far longer than is currently possible. There are, of course, reasons to be cautious. Technology rollouts rarely go entirely to plan. The ten-year schedule my local administration is working to is ambitious, and a lot can change in funding priorities, in public appetite, and in the regulatory environment. The early trials are promising, but promising trials and full-scale dependable infrastructure are very different things. It's worth keeping in mind, with a groan inducing pun: your mileage will vary — literally. Dense urban and suburban areas will almost certainly see reliable services first, and I'm fortunate that describes my situation. For those in more rural communities, the very people for whom isolation is already the sharpest problem, the wait could be considerably longer. I'm hopeful, but I'm not banking on it entirely. Which is why the 2027 hybrid still makes sense. It's a practical hedge, a good, modern, efficient car that will serve me well through the transition years, whatever pace that transition takes. But the fact that I'm already thinking of it as potentially my last car feels significant. A decade ago that thought wouldn't have crossed my mind. The technology has moved from science fiction to credible near-future fast enough to genuinely reshape how I'm thinking about retirement planning. If it delivers, the generation hitting their seventies in the late 2030s could be the first in history for whom ageing and mobility don't have to be in conflict. That's not a small thing. That might turn out to be one of the most personally transformative shifts of the entire autonomous vehicle revolution. It is not about the flashy early adopters or the logistics industry efficiencies. Instead, it is the simple dignity of an older person getting where they need to go, independently, on their own terms. I'm hopeful I'll be taking that ride and certain my children and grandchildren definitely will.
Mark Crothers is a retired small business owner from the UK with a keen interest in personal finance and simple living. Married to his high school sweetheart, with daughters and grandchildren, he knows the importance of building a secure financial future. With an aversion to social media, he prefers to spend his time on his main passions: reading, scratch cooking, racket sports, and hiking.
Read more »

Tax Free Income Trap, Dealing With MAGI

"Agree! When it comes to Roth conversions, tax arbitrage is usually the focus of discussion, but “portfolio return“ arbitrage (if that’s a proper term?) is usually less mentioned."
- Andy Morrison
Read more »

A Life You Build

"Jeff, That is an incredible article. One of if not the best HD articles I’ve ever read.That moved me. As I was reading I was thinking to mention a couple of the most inspiring takeaways you included but there were so many. Thank you so much for taking the time to write and share this piece with the HD community. Ideally, I hope this reaches way beyond HD. Well done on your life’s journey and well done capturing it here!"
- Andy Morrison
Read more »

How much to provide a college student monthly?

"I have one child who didn't ask for a lot. We were always like, do you need any money, do you need any money? Decades ago when I was in school, I tracked necessary expenses and then would ask my dad to reimburse me for those. So, then, what is "necessary?" Books, groceries, anything school-related, anything needed to live. Beyond that, I paid for it. I never overbilled him. I hated asking for money. I would have rather had a certain amount sent to me."
- David J. Kupstas
Read more »

Blood Money

"On April 30 (with WTI closing at $105.07/bbl.) I sold another 10% of my XOM shares @ $154.413 (up nicely from it mid-month low of $146.44). Plan is to continue selling next month."
- mflack
Read more »

New Face, old scam

"Thanks. Good to see you contributing again."
- Jeff Bond
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How Far Behind is the IRS?

"My mother died in 2021 and we were due a significant refund on 2020 taxes due to medical expenses. We filed on time but it took two years and mutiple phone calls to resolve it. This was before the Trump cuts. Nothing moved until Biden pumped $80 million more into their budget. Before they woukd not even answer the phone. my only advice is to call every 2 months, take names and badge numbers and if no result call again. one agent told me they had everything they needed but nothing happened. Two months later calling back I wastold they needed X form and the lady stood by the fax machine when I faxed it. The refund arrived in two weeks. oh and keep a joint bank acvout open with mom so they can send the money there even if she passes and you can withdraw it"
- Concerned
Read more »

First Place

"I've driven that stretch of road from the north, after a hiking trip to Humboldt Redwoods and Sinkyone on the coast. Very beautiful."
- Edmund Marsh
Read more »

Wall Street Trap

IN THE INVESTMENT world, May 1st is a notable day. It was on May 1, 1975 that the Securities and Exchange Commission deregulated the brokerage industry. For the 183 years prior to that, trading commissions on the New York Stock Exchange had been fixed at uniformly high rates. But when deregulation arrived, competition got going. That’s when discount brokers like Charles Schwab got rolling, and over time, May Day, as it’s now referred to, has delivered enormous savings to consumers. More than 50 years later, though, Wall Street still operates in ways that are often at odds with consumer interests. As an individual investor, what are the obstacles to be aware of? At the top of the list is Wall Street’s fixation with individual stocks. For almost 100 years, the data has been clear that stock-picking is counterproductive. Probably the first to uncover this was a fellow named Alfred Cowles. Cowles came from a wealthy family and wondered whether the investment advice his family had been receiving was worthwhile. He set about answering that question and in 1933, published a paper titled “Can Stock Market Forecasters Forecast?” Cowles’s conclusion: They can’t. More recently, research by finance professors Brad Barber and Terrance Odean came to a similar conclusion. The title of their most well known paper is self-explanatory: “Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth.”  Along the same lines, Standard & Poor’s regularly examines actively-managed mutual funds to see how many are able to outperform the overall market. The most recent finding: Over the past 10 years, fewer than 15% of funds benchmarked to the S&P 500 managed to beat the index. Research by Jeff Ptak at Morningstar has found that the more active a fund is, the worse it performs. So-called tactical funds, which shift among different asset classes in response to economic forecasts have, in Ptak’s words, “incinerated” shareholder dollars. This data is fairly well known. The problem, though, is that trading activity generates revenue for the brokerage industry, so it has an interest in keeping investors engaged with the market. That’s why brokerage analysts are on TV every day, offering their forecasts for individual stocks, for the overall market and for the broader economy. To be sure, this makes for interesting television. The problem, though, is that it’s been shown to carry almost no value. According to research by Joachim Klement, the accuracy of Wall Street prognosticators is approximately zero. Why are they so poor at forecasting? For starters, there’s the simple fact that no one has a crystal ball. No one can know what a company—or its competitors—will do a month or a year from now, and how that will translate into stock price gains or losses. Sociologist Ezra Zuckerman Sivan uncovered a more subtle explanation. In research published after the technology selloff in 2000, Sivan found that Wall Street analysts are constrained by two obstacles. The first is that they’re dependent on access to companies’ management teams to help in their research. For that reason, it’s in their interest to maintain positive relationships with the companies that they follow. Investment banks that take a positive view on a company may also be rewarded with profitable mergers or acquisitions work when the need arises. Those factors bias stock recommendations overwhelmingly in the direction of “buy” ratings. Another reason analysts tend to avoid negative comments about the companies they cover: Sivan found that there is a community effect that tends to form among the analysts assigned to a given company, and thus an incentive develops to not “rock the boat” in saying anything too critical. People generally want to get along, and that results in a sort of self-censorship. This research is well understood, and yet Wall Street continues to generate forecasts day after day, year after year. Why? There are two explanations, I believe. The first is that it’s entertaining. I’ll be the first to acknowledge that index funds aren’t terribly interesting to talk about. It’s far more interesting to talk about smartphones or AI and the companies behind them. That makes Wall Street analysts invaluable to the media, who need to fill airtime.  And as long as they’re granted that airtime, forecasters are of great value to the brokerage industry. Since trading activity is profitable for Wall Street, it’s in brokers’ interest to generate continued interest in stocks. That brings in commission dollars for brokers. And even though commissions have shrunk in recent years, brokers benefit in other ways from active trading, including the “bid-ask spread” on each trade. That’s the difference between what buyers pay and what sellers receive, and though these spreads are tiny, they add up for the brokers who collect them. For good reason, then, Wall Street continues to promote stock-picking. At the same time, the investment industry is always busy developing new funds. In the first half of last year, for example, fund companies rolled out more than 640 new funds. Among them: funds that hold single stocks with varying degrees of leverage and other seemingly unnecessary new formulations. The result: There are now many more funds than there are stocks trading on U.S. exchanges.  Many of these new funds follow ever more esoteric strategies. They’re often opaque. And almost invariably, they carry higher fees. In a 2011 study titled “The Dark Side of Financial Innovation,” finance professor Brian Henderson and a colleague looked at one popular category of fund known as a structured product. Their conclusion: These funds were overpriced to the point that their expected return was actually a bit below zero. How were they able to market such an inferior product? Henderson’s hypothesis was that the fund companies designed them to be intentionally as complex as possible in order to exploit individual investors. The bottom line: To a great degree, Wall Street is upside down. But as an individual investor, you don’t have to be. My rule of thumb: In building a portfolio, investors should do more or less the opposite of what Wall Street recommends. That, I believe, is a reliable formula for success.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Investing Fundamentals: A Simple Guide for Beginners

"Excellent article. Now let’s forward it to our young relatives and friends who have limited attention spans."
- Nick Politakis
Read more »

The reality of Social Security and Medicare- My real life experience.

"I’ve only been on Medicare for nine months and am not drawing Social Security yet, so I don’t have many opinions about the whole thing. Because of my pensions and my husband still working, our IRMAA bite is pretty substantial. I don’t feel angry about that—paying IRMAA means you’re doing well, after all—but it’s made it harder to feel like I’m “getting something I paid for.” I do like going to the doctor and not having to pay a $35 co-pay anymore, and my prescriptions are cheaper, too. 👍"
- DrLefty
Read more »

Retirement Toys

"I think that’s right—maybe hit by a car? I remember Jonathan mentioning it a couple of times."
- DrLefty
Read more »

Ageing and the Open Road

RECENTLY I TOOK a free ride on a driverless bus trialling its proposed route, part of my local administration's ten-year rollout plan for self-driving public transport and taxis. I see real potential in this technology, and I'm hoping the infrastructure and implementation stay on schedule. That hope is mostly selfish, I'll admit. In fifteen years I'll be in my mid-seventies, and I'd love to ditch my car and rely on cheap, dependable robo-taxis instead. It would give me freedom precisely in that decade of life when driving starts to become genuinely problematic. I'm planning to change my car in 2027 for a modern hybrid, but in the back of my mind is the thought that it could be my last. If the self-driving rollout hits its targets, I can see the case for never buying another. The advantages for someone in my demographic at that stage of life would be hard to argue with. Think about what car ownership actually costs. There's the purchase price, insurance, road tax, fuel, servicing, tyres, and the occasional bill that arrives like a punch to the stomach. For most people, a car is the second most expensive thing they own after their home. In retirement, when income typically drops and budgets tighten, that ongoing drain becomes harder to justify. This is especially true when the car spends the vast majority of its time sitting on a driveway looking pretty. A robo-taxi model, where you pay only for the journeys you actually take, could represent a dramatic shift in how much personal transport really costs. The numbers, I suspect, will be compelling — with current estimates from real world operations suggesting an 80% reduction in the cost of fares being achievable. Then there's the question of independence. This is the one that matters most to me personally, and I'd imagine it resonates with anyone approaching or already in their later years. Giving up your car keys is one of those milestones that nobody really talks about, but everyone in that demographic understands. It represents a loss of spontaneity and self-sufficiency that can genuinely affect quality of life. The difference with autonomous vehicles is that surrendering the wheel doesn't have to mean surrendering the freedom. A reliable, affordable self-driving taxi available on demand restores something that previous generations simply had to go without once driving became difficult. This could be a trip to the supermarket on a weekday morning or a late evening visit to family. The safety dimension is also worth considering. Reaction times slow as we age. Night vision deteriorates. Concentration over long distances becomes harder. Most older drivers are aware of this and manage it carefully, but there comes a point for everyone where the road becomes a source of anxiety rather than freedom. Autonomous vehicles remove that calculation entirely. You get in, state your destination, and arrive, without the cognitive load of navigating, anticipating other drivers, or worrying whether your responses are still sharp enough. That peace of mind shouldn't be underestimated. There are wider social benefits too. Older people who can no longer drive are disproportionately affected by isolation. Poor rural transport links, infrequent bus services, and the general assumption that everyone has access to a car all contribute to a situation where many retired people find their world gradually shrinking. Autonomous vehicles, particularly if integrated intelligently with existing public transport, have the potential to reverse that. A robo-taxi that can be summoned by a smartphone, or even a simple voice command, could keep people connected to their communities, their families, and their routines far longer than is currently possible. There are, of course, reasons to be cautious. Technology rollouts rarely go entirely to plan. The ten-year schedule my local administration is working to is ambitious, and a lot can change in funding priorities, in public appetite, and in the regulatory environment. The early trials are promising, but promising trials and full-scale dependable infrastructure are very different things. It's worth keeping in mind, with a groan inducing pun: your mileage will vary — literally. Dense urban and suburban areas will almost certainly see reliable services first, and I'm fortunate that describes my situation. For those in more rural communities, the very people for whom isolation is already the sharpest problem, the wait could be considerably longer. I'm hopeful, but I'm not banking on it entirely. Which is why the 2027 hybrid still makes sense. It's a practical hedge, a good, modern, efficient car that will serve me well through the transition years, whatever pace that transition takes. But the fact that I'm already thinking of it as potentially my last car feels significant. A decade ago that thought wouldn't have crossed my mind. The technology has moved from science fiction to credible near-future fast enough to genuinely reshape how I'm thinking about retirement planning. If it delivers, the generation hitting their seventies in the late 2030s could be the first in history for whom ageing and mobility don't have to be in conflict. That's not a small thing. That might turn out to be one of the most personally transformative shifts of the entire autonomous vehicle revolution. It is not about the flashy early adopters or the logistics industry efficiencies. Instead, it is the simple dignity of an older person getting where they need to go, independently, on their own terms. I'm hopeful I'll be taking that ride and certain my children and grandchildren definitely will.
Mark Crothers is a retired small business owner from the UK with a keen interest in personal finance and simple living. Married to his high school sweetheart, with daughters and grandchildren, he knows the importance of building a secure financial future. With an aversion to social media, he prefers to spend his time on his main passions: reading, scratch cooking, racket sports, and hiking.
Read more »

Tax Free Income Trap, Dealing With MAGI

"Agree! When it comes to Roth conversions, tax arbitrage is usually the focus of discussion, but “portfolio return“ arbitrage (if that’s a proper term?) is usually less mentioned."
- Andy Morrison
Read more »

A Life You Build

"Jeff, That is an incredible article. One of if not the best HD articles I’ve ever read.That moved me. As I was reading I was thinking to mention a couple of the most inspiring takeaways you included but there were so many. Thank you so much for taking the time to write and share this piece with the HD community. Ideally, I hope this reaches way beyond HD. Well done on your life’s journey and well done capturing it here!"
- Andy Morrison
Read more »

How much to provide a college student monthly?

"I have one child who didn't ask for a lot. We were always like, do you need any money, do you need any money? Decades ago when I was in school, I tracked necessary expenses and then would ask my dad to reimburse me for those. So, then, what is "necessary?" Books, groceries, anything school-related, anything needed to live. Beyond that, I paid for it. I never overbilled him. I hated asking for money. I would have rather had a certain amount sent to me."
- David J. Kupstas
Read more »

Blood Money

"On April 30 (with WTI closing at $105.07/bbl.) I sold another 10% of my XOM shares @ $154.413 (up nicely from it mid-month low of $146.44). Plan is to continue selling next month."
- mflack
Read more »

Wall Street Trap

IN THE INVESTMENT world, May 1st is a notable day. It was on May 1, 1975 that the Securities and Exchange Commission deregulated the brokerage industry. For the 183 years prior to that, trading commissions on the New York Stock Exchange had been fixed at uniformly high rates. But when deregulation arrived, competition got going. That’s when discount brokers like Charles Schwab got rolling, and over time, May Day, as it’s now referred to, has delivered enormous savings to consumers. More than 50 years later, though, Wall Street still operates in ways that are often at odds with consumer interests. As an individual investor, what are the obstacles to be aware of? At the top of the list is Wall Street’s fixation with individual stocks. For almost 100 years, the data has been clear that stock-picking is counterproductive. Probably the first to uncover this was a fellow named Alfred Cowles. Cowles came from a wealthy family and wondered whether the investment advice his family had been receiving was worthwhile. He set about answering that question and in 1933, published a paper titled “Can Stock Market Forecasters Forecast?” Cowles’s conclusion: They can’t. More recently, research by finance professors Brad Barber and Terrance Odean came to a similar conclusion. The title of their most well known paper is self-explanatory: “Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth.”  Along the same lines, Standard & Poor’s regularly examines actively-managed mutual funds to see how many are able to outperform the overall market. The most recent finding: Over the past 10 years, fewer than 15% of funds benchmarked to the S&P 500 managed to beat the index. Research by Jeff Ptak at Morningstar has found that the more active a fund is, the worse it performs. So-called tactical funds, which shift among different asset classes in response to economic forecasts have, in Ptak’s words, “incinerated” shareholder dollars. This data is fairly well known. The problem, though, is that trading activity generates revenue for the brokerage industry, so it has an interest in keeping investors engaged with the market. That’s why brokerage analysts are on TV every day, offering their forecasts for individual stocks, for the overall market and for the broader economy. To be sure, this makes for interesting television. The problem, though, is that it’s been shown to carry almost no value. According to research by Joachim Klement, the accuracy of Wall Street prognosticators is approximately zero. Why are they so poor at forecasting? For starters, there’s the simple fact that no one has a crystal ball. No one can know what a company—or its competitors—will do a month or a year from now, and how that will translate into stock price gains or losses. Sociologist Ezra Zuckerman Sivan uncovered a more subtle explanation. In research published after the technology selloff in 2000, Sivan found that Wall Street analysts are constrained by two obstacles. The first is that they’re dependent on access to companies’ management teams to help in their research. For that reason, it’s in their interest to maintain positive relationships with the companies that they follow. Investment banks that take a positive view on a company may also be rewarded with profitable mergers or acquisitions work when the need arises. Those factors bias stock recommendations overwhelmingly in the direction of “buy” ratings. Another reason analysts tend to avoid negative comments about the companies they cover: Sivan found that there is a community effect that tends to form among the analysts assigned to a given company, and thus an incentive develops to not “rock the boat” in saying anything too critical. People generally want to get along, and that results in a sort of self-censorship. This research is well understood, and yet Wall Street continues to generate forecasts day after day, year after year. Why? There are two explanations, I believe. The first is that it’s entertaining. I’ll be the first to acknowledge that index funds aren’t terribly interesting to talk about. It’s far more interesting to talk about smartphones or AI and the companies behind them. That makes Wall Street analysts invaluable to the media, who need to fill airtime.  And as long as they’re granted that airtime, forecasters are of great value to the brokerage industry. Since trading activity is profitable for Wall Street, it’s in brokers’ interest to generate continued interest in stocks. That brings in commission dollars for brokers. And even though commissions have shrunk in recent years, brokers benefit in other ways from active trading, including the “bid-ask spread” on each trade. That’s the difference between what buyers pay and what sellers receive, and though these spreads are tiny, they add up for the brokers who collect them. For good reason, then, Wall Street continues to promote stock-picking. At the same time, the investment industry is always busy developing new funds. In the first half of last year, for example, fund companies rolled out more than 640 new funds. Among them: funds that hold single stocks with varying degrees of leverage and other seemingly unnecessary new formulations. The result: There are now many more funds than there are stocks trading on U.S. exchanges.  Many of these new funds follow ever more esoteric strategies. They’re often opaque. And almost invariably, they carry higher fees. In a 2011 study titled “The Dark Side of Financial Innovation,” finance professor Brian Henderson and a colleague looked at one popular category of fund known as a structured product. Their conclusion: These funds were overpriced to the point that their expected return was actually a bit below zero. How were they able to market such an inferior product? Henderson’s hypothesis was that the fund companies designed them to be intentionally as complex as possible in order to exploit individual investors. The bottom line: To a great degree, Wall Street is upside down. But as an individual investor, you don’t have to be. My rule of thumb: In building a portfolio, investors should do more or less the opposite of what Wall Street recommends. That, I believe, is a reliable formula for success.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Free Newsletter

Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 52: WE SHOULD aim to become homeowners—not because homes deliver handsome capital gains, but because owning locks in our housing costs and, with every mortgage payment, forces us to save.

Truths

NO. 111: WALL STREET tries never to send us a bill, so we’re unaware of how much we’re paying. Fund expenses and financial advisor fees are quietly subtracted throughout the year. Stock trading spreads and bond markups are built into security prices. Load mutual fund commissions are swiped from our initial investment or they're deducted when we sell.

act

GO TO THE LIBRARY. You can borrow DVDs, rather than paying to stream movies and TV shows. You can cancel your magazine and newspaper subscriptions, and peruse the library’s periodicals instead. You can borrow the latest books, rather than ordering from Amazon. All this will get you out of the house, meeting your neighbors and reading more—at no cost.

think

EVOLUTIONARY psychology. Why are we so fearful of losses, so bad at saving money and always hankering for more material goods? Evolutionary psychology explains such behavior by identifying the traits that helped our nomadic ancestors to survive. These hardwired instincts often hurt us in today’s world—and it can take great mental effort to overcome them.

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Manifesto

NO. 52: WE SHOULD aim to become homeowners—not because homes deliver handsome capital gains, but because owning locks in our housing costs and, with every mortgage payment, forces us to save.

Spotlight: Markets

Driving Prices

IN 2020, ELECTRIC car maker Lucid Motors brought in revenue of $4 million. Five years later, sales had risen impressively, to more than $1 billion. In 2025 alone, sales grew 68%. That sounds like a success story, and through that lens, it is. And yet, over that same period, the company’s stock dropped more than 89%.
What happened?
A better question is: What didn’t happen? Despite growing sales, the company has struggled to turn a profit.

Read more »

Holy Cow! Holding The Line in a Market Stampede

Last night after dinner, I went for a cycle. When at our holiday home, it’s one of my favourite routes: it goes along behind sand dunes on a wooden boardwalk until reaching the Giant’s Causeway. From there, it’s a push up onto the cliff-top paths. After a few miles, there’s a steep descent with cliffs on one side and a field with cows on the other. I normally dismount and carefully walk my bike down, but I decided to freewheel while on my bike.

Read more »

Private Equity Traps

IN APRIL 2005, art dealers Robert Simon and Alex Parish traveled to New Orleans to attend an auction. They were particularly interested in a work titled Salvator Mundi. The painting was in bad shape, having been neglected for years. But Simon and Parish ended up bidding on it and taking it home for $10,000.
After some restoration work, the pair succeeded in having it authenticated as a work of Leonardo da Vinci.

Read more »

Financial Trauma

SOMETIMES WORLD events beyond your control create a hard reset point in your financial life. A before and after. For me, that point was the 2007 Great Financial Crisis (GFC). The psychological scars still reverberate into my current life.
 
Looking back, I was aware of something rumbling about in the financial landscape but didn’t take much notice due to being deeply involved in running my business. Little did I realize the impact heading my way.

Read more »

Perfect Portfolio

WHAT’S THE BEST way to manage your investments?
A new book titled Your Perfect Portfolio helps answer this question. I spoke this week with the author, Cullen Roche.
Adam Grossman: The title is Your Perfect Portfolio with an emphasis on your
Cullen Roche: I was very intentional about saying “your perfect portfolio” because everyone’s different, everyone’s unique. So I wrote this book with the intent of studying lots of different strategies and styles.

Read more »

Asset Location Decisions

WHERE YOU PUT your investments can make a huge difference for your after-tax wealth. 
As you know, we have 3 main investment accounts:

Taxable account. A traditional brokerage account where you are taxed every time you dividends or sell investments at a gain.
Tax deferred account. Traditional 401(k), 403(b), and traditional IRAs allow taxes to be deferred to the future. You pay taxes when your investments are withdrawn, and generally come with an immediate tax deduction.

Read more »

Spotlight: disqus_J4eibgHQnB_2

Coping with inflation in retirement, what’s the plan?

It’s not hard to find articles about high prices, the burden inflation puts on seniors, those with a so-called fixed income, which is a myth. Virtually no retiree is on a fixed income and the more they depend on Social Security the less so.  Of course, high inflation, actually any inflation creates financial stress for many retirees, but is it a surprise? Isn’t being aware of and planning for inflation a key part of retirement? Inflation is nearly always with us.  The highest period of inflation since 1900 was between 1973-1982 where it average 8.7% and hit a peak of 13.5% in 1980. That’s when my mortgage had a 9-3/4% interest rate They were tough times. Remember WIN buttons?  To my surprise the lowest period was 1920-1929 with an average of 0.0%. No wonder it’s called the roaring twenties.  While we can’t predict inflation from year to year, it’s a pretty good bet that goods and services, property taxes, etc. will cost more ten years after we retire.  Many claim Social Security doesn’t keep up with inflation. It does, but it depends.  The overall inflation rate for 2025 was reported as 2.6%. The 2026 Social security COLA was 2.8% so yes, SS keeps up with inflation. If inflation takes off after September of a year, the COLA may be less. On the other hand, the opposite may happen.  The important variables are what percentage of total income is Social Security and how close to the CPI is an individual’s inflation rate? For example, I’m not affected by housing prices, but I am by premiums for Medicare. Indirectly many seniors see rising expenses reflected in property taxes as towns cope with rising prices and wage pressures.  The CPI-E (Consumer Price Index for Americans 62 Years of Age and Older) has been…
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Can a parent ever say to their “not my problem?”

A question for discussion. Is an eighteen year old an adult? Do you expect an 18 year old to pay their bills, to be on their own for college? Several years ago on HD someone wrote in a comment that when their child reach age 18, they were done. They expected them out of the house and they were on their own.  Another wrote that when their youngest child graduated high school, the were relocating south and leaving the child behind.  One blogger I read who retired at 33 bragged that when his 11 year old asked if he was going to pay for her college, he told her no. Frankly, I don’t understand those points of view. In my view an 18-year old brain is not that of an adult. A child is the parents obligation until they are truly on their own, earning a living. Even then there are times when help is appropriate. And no, I am not talking about the 25 year old lounging in the basement playing video games all day.  I am especially convinced that to the extent feasible parents have a responsibility to pay for college.  In a recent post on HD from 2017 Jonathan wrote “Can you afford to help your kids with college costs? It’s important to talk to your teenagers early on about how much financial assistance you can offer—and that’s doubly true if they’ll need to shoulder much or all of the cost.” Wise advice indeed. Defining “afford” is critical. In my example of the 11 year old, the family takes three or four international trips a year.  Some families view college the same way they view housing, food, or healthcare while growing up—as part of supporting a child until they’re established. Others argue college is the student’s responsibility…
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Enough complaining already. Live your life and stop worrying about “they” “ them” or things

Over the years I have mentioned some of this before, but the perception of unfairness and complaining about what others have is getting worse in my view. Did I and others in my generation have everything easier because we were born in the 1940s? True I wasn’t burdened with student loans, but on the other hand I never had the full college experience and most of my night school was paid by the GI Bill.  I was never burdened by credit card debt, because I was taught never to buy what you couldn’t pay for- the alternative was doing without. I grew up in a modest income family, probably not reaching middle-class ($3,000 in 1950- $41,000 in 2026 money). In the early years I remember we didn’t have a car and my parents couldn’t afford a house until my father was in his 60s and then shared with my sister’s family.  Unlike what I hear these days, there was no complaining, no talking of unfairness. There were a couple of overnight and one week long road trip, but never a real vacation, my father didn’t get paid for vacations until years later when I was an adult.  Life was life and you accepted it and made the best of it and enjoyed it as simple as it was. I don’t recall whining about millionaires or thinking about them and what they had and we didn’t. We didn’t know anyone as rich as Rockefeller. There weren’t many billionaires in those days, J Paul Getty and H.L. Hunt were exceptions.  I had no feelings of going without, but I admit I had thoughts of doing better. While I never received an allowance, I always had some change in a piggy bank or my pocket, enough for a ice cream cone at ten…
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Do retirees really struggle financially? Why and what to do?

I asked my friends AI, what percentage of pre-retirement income to retirees actually live on. Of course, most of the data is survey based. The answer was 66% on average.  A T. Rowe Price/NewRetirement survey found that, nearly three years into retirement, retirees report living on 66% of pre-retirement income on average—and 57% said they live as well or better than before.  A Goldman Sachs Asset Management survey showed retirees receive ~60% of pre-retirement wages on average, with high satisfaction (71%).  The Center for Retirement Research (CRR-Boston College) noted many retirees get by on less than 70%, with 4 in 10 on 60% or less. Bankrate analysis put the nationwide average at ~60%.  Interestingly, the needed percentage varies by income level. •  Low income (e.g., under ~$50k pre-retirement): •  Often need 80-104% replacement. •  JPMorgan (Chase data): ~104% for $30k households. •  Boston College CRR: ~80% target. •  Fidelity: Higher end (~80%+) for < $50k band.  •  Middle income (e.g., $50k-$150k): •  Typically 70-80%. •  T. Rowe Price: Around 73-77% across $50k-$150k, varying slightly by marital status. •  CRR: ~71% for middle group.  •  High income (e.g., $200k+): •  Often 55-70% (or lower). Social Security replaces a larger percentage for lower income. For someone earning $30,000 at FRA retirement, the replacement is about 55%. Forty percent replacement from Social Security is more typical.  So why do so many seniors claim to be struggle financially? Seniors feel they struggle due to a mix of real economic pressures: Fear of long-term care costs, inflation, but it is a myth retirees fully live on a fixed income (besides most Americans do not reliably receive a dedicated annual pay raise (merit, COLA, or performance-based) at their current job every year), inadequate savings and longevity are also key factors among those claiming to be struggling. …
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Retirement in America is not a pretty picture…and not getting better.

From what I read, many if not the great majority, of HD readers are the exception to much of this dilemma. The responsibility for retirement income has steadily shifted to individuals and away from employers (unless you work for government), but far too few workers have accepted that responsibility. Longterm thinking does not seem a widespread skill. I find this information a bit depressing. How do we change the situation?  Frankly I don’t know, but if we don’t make changes- if individuals don’t make changes in their financial behavior and if we don’t do better for those with inadequate means to fend for themselves, there will be adverse economic consequences as society continues to age. In my view anyway.  Hey, we need more Americans reading HumbleDollar and the reality it’s writers bring to personal finance. 🤑 Fact: most workers don’t stay with one employer long enough to get any value from a pension plan. The median job tenure is about 4 years, a bit longer in the public sector.  Fact: the peak for workers pensions in the private sector was about 50% in the 1970s. However, far less actually received a pension because they left the job before vesting or the receive a minimal deferred annuity at age 65 if they were vested. Today about 15% of private sector workers have a defined benefit pension, but short job tenure still means they most receive little value.  Fact: Today more workers have an employer-based retirement plan than ever before, just not a defined benefit pension. About 65–70% of private-sector workers have access to a retirement plan (401k and the like), the bad news, roughly 50–55% actually participate.  Fact:  workers in their 50s have an average 401k balance of  $246,700 – $270,000 and a median of $85,000 – $95,000.  Workers in their…
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Is saving really that hard? Nope, not for the great majority of Americans. 

I posed this question to an AI program (because I don’t know how to use a spreadsheet). “If my income is $3,000 per month, I save 10%, I expect to earn 8% per year on invested money and my income will increase by 2.5% per year (basically inflation). How much will I have in 40 years?” Here’s the answer. You’d have about $1.29 million after 40 years, assuming you invest the savings monthly, earn 8% per year compounded monthly, and your income — and therefore your 10% savings amount — rises 2.5% each year. Assuming all tax deferred. About $914,000 of the final $1.29 million is growth from returns on your investments If you save only 5% of income instead of 10%, you’d have about $645,600 after 40 years About $457,000 of the final $645,600 is growth from returns on your investments. Compounding is pretty powerful stuff. Imagine if this was all in a Roth account. Saving a portion pre-tax will help with take-home pay.  Add a few extra dollars along the way; tax refund, a bonus, a gift, whatever and things look better.  In my opinion, for most people this is very doable and once in place will continue virtually unnoticed. Lifestyle with a bit of discipline will be based on net income. Add Social Security to this nest egg and retirement should be comfortable.  We could play with the numbers all we like, but the approach is sound for most people even recognizing life’s blips along the way. 
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