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Simplify Everything

"Doug, Thanks for the suggestion. I use about 50 different passwords and don't use qwerty+digits anymore. All of them conform to: upper, lower, special character and number, but are rarely longer than 9 or 10 keystrokes. What do you think of using those google Chrome recommended multi-character passwords that show up every once in a while when I go to some new site? (I use Chrome, Firefox, Opera, and Safari for various sites...do you recommend one more than another?)"
- John D.
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Perfection, enemy of good

"Kristine ....spot on. I see lifestlye creep with my 2 boys & their significant others. All with new leased cars as opposed to buying a older used car. We live approx. 12 miles from Manhattan. Bus stop 5 minute walk from our townhouse. NJ Transit bus to midtown $9.50.....Uber usually $50'ish to $65.00 each way. They Uber it. Food shopping - the one significant other doesn't like it. Instacart or a similar service. Multiple vacations to the Caribbean, Mexico or Europe yearly. At this point I can't imagine either owning a home. They all make what I would consider relatively good money. The downside is we live in a very pricey area. Keep hoping they will wake up!"
- Kevin N
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Financial regrets about parenthood?

"Rewarding for most people, but not all. And obviously Mike grew up in an environment where that was not the case and he did not want to risk that being repeated."
- Doug C
Read more »

Lent, Chocolate, and the Art of Retirement

"What a lovely coincidence — my wife and I have just returned from a walk into the little village of Bushmills, near our vacation home, where we picked up scallions for the colcannon we're making tonight... although we call it champ."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Note to HD Writers and Contributors

"First Elaine, belated condolences. I had no doubt HD would change without Jon's steady hand at the helm, but apologies on behalf of those who may have directed vitriol either at you or the site, which seems simply nuts. I'm still here as a reader, as I was way back in the day when Jon was at the WSJ. Sure, maybe it's a bit different, but still one of the very best personal finance sites out there. Best."
- medhat
Read more »

Tax Efficiency

TAX EFFICIENT FUND placement is an often underrated topic. The goal of the tax efficient fund placement is to minimize taxes within your investments, and select the right account for those investments.

But how much does that actually matter?

Vanguard’s research finds that a thoughtful asset location strategy can add significantly more value than an equal location strategy. The value added typically ranges from 5 to 30 basis points of after-tax return, depending on circumstances (e.g., income, portfolio size).

Investors generally have access to different account types, including:

  • Tax-free accounts (Roth IRA, Roth 401(k))
  • Taxable brokerage accounts
  • Tax-deferred accounts (401(k), 403(b), Traditional IRA)

If you are an employee that may not have access to a retirement plan, you could perhaps consider a Solo 401(k) if you have "side hustle" business income.

Generally, if your investments are all in tax-deferred or tax-free accounts, fund placement will not make a huge difference for you. That is because these accounts already come with tax efficiency.

If that's your case, two things become important though:

1. Consideration between pre-tax, like Traditional 401(k) or after-tax account, like Roth 401(k). Put simply, this decision generally comes down to your marginal tax rate now versus marginal tax rate in the future (which isn't something easy to predict due to the ever-changing tax landscape).

2. Account allocation. It becomes equally important where exactly you are investing. Roth accounts grow tax-free and qualified withdrawals are tax-free. You likely don't want to hinder that growth by choosing conservative assets (like fixed income, Money Market Funds, and so on).

Tax-efficient fund placement becomes extremely important when you also have a taxable brokerage account, along with tax-advantaged accounts. Many funds pay dividends and distribute capital gains if placed in your taxable brokerage account. At the end of the year, you receive a 1099 with that income and must pay taxes on the dividends and certain distributions.

One thing to call out from history is that you generally shouldn't hold Target Date Retirement mutual funds (or any "proprietary" funds) in your brokerage account. This is because unexpected redemptions could cause a huge tax bill.

You may remember a Vanguard 2021 fiasco where Vanguard opened an institutional TDF to more investors (lowered the minimum investment from $100M to $5M), which caused smaller retirement plans to sell out of individual funds and move into the institutional fund. This triggered massive unexpected capital gains for anyone invested in the individual funds if held in a brokerage account.

All of those unnecessary taxes could've been avoided by:

  • Choosing investments that don’t distribute many dividends or capital gains
  • Choosing passively managed investments (low portfolio turnover)
  • Placing them in tax-advantaged accounts

Let me give you a simple example:

Let’s say you are in a 22% federal tax bracket and a 5% state tax bracket, and you have some money invested in a dividend fund like Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD). SCHD dividends are generally qualified, which means that the dividends get preferential treatment at a 15% federal tax rate for this investor.

The dividend yield is 3.43%. Considering the tax rates, the tax drag is (15% + 5%) * 3.43% = 0.686%.

To put this in perspective, a $10,000 investment will yield ~$343 in annual dividends. The tax impact on that investment will be $60.86.

Of course, if that money was in a Roth IRA, you would pay $0 in taxes on dividend distributions. Alternatively, this is something you may need to decide whether a dividend-focused investing strategy is the right one for you. For example, a Total US Stock Market ETF could have almost 3x less tax drag, and potentially more growth.

As someone in their 20s (who is subject to the Net Investment Income Tax) my focus is 100% on a growth investment strategy, rather than income generation. For someone in their 60s, that strategy could be different (even though selling shares for capital gains is better from a tax timing point of view).

A few more important points:

REIT stocks/ETFs are the least tax-efficient asset class to hold in a brokerage account because their distributions aren’t qualified, so you pay more tax (even though it may qualify for a 199A deduction).

Stocks that don’t pay dividends are the most tax-efficient to hold within your taxable account (Adobe, Amazon, Netflix, and others). However, holding individual stocks may not be the best strategy from an investment and diversification standpoint.

A big benefit of a taxable account is that the money is always easily accessible (liquidity), and you can control your withdrawal timing. While there are strategies that allow you to withdraw from retirement accounts before age 59 (like Rule of 55, 72(t) SoSEPP, Roth conversions), a brokerage account is more flexible. Therefore, analyzing the contributions and investments that go into this account is crucial.

How do you maximize tax efficiency? Let us know in the comments!   Bogdan Sheremeta is a licensed CPA based in Illinois with experience at Deloitte and a Fortune 200 multinational.  

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Giving Up on Owning a Home

"Primary purpose is shelter, but this is a bit simplistic. Other things we value about our house: Within a walkable mile of public transportation into NYC. Decent local bus routes just three blocks away. Ample parking. Same walkable range to two different downtowns including one high end supermarket, restaurants, places of worship (which host nonreligious community events as well), decent schools, parks, libraries, etc. Neighbors who are community. My kids have different views of what dream house means.(This may be an article someday.) Then there is the issue of maintenance vs appreciation. As a proportion to house value, our property taxes have dropped, but they do increase every year. Homeowner's insurance, on the other hand, has soared. We just signed a contract for a $13.5k plumbing repair. In 2020 we spent $30k on a detatched garage repair (the foundation was crumbling on 2 sides and needed a new door and electrical servive.) We need outdoor painting every ten years. I could continue, but you get the point. If something goes very wrong in a rental, you move. If something goes wrong in an owned property, you better be insured for it with a company that pays out."
- Cammer Michael
Read more »

Blood Money

"Michael, got it and thanks for answering. Perhaps an idea for another article. Don't think I've seen anything about Net Unrealized Appreciation (NUA) rollovers on Humble Dollar."
- Jim Burrows
Read more »

Stock Market Contest

"It would be interesting if there were a control group, comprised of a basket of Vanguard Index Funds."
- normr60189
Read more »

Any concern?

"Aside from LTC which is not medical care, what care do you refer to. “A lot of medical care is not covered by insurance.” In fact, the really serious expensive care is covered, especially with Medicare/Medigap"
- R Quinn
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Home Tax Tips

IF YOU OWN a home or are planning to buy one, there are a few things you need to know from the tax standpoint that could save you money: 1. Mortgage Interest If you have a mortgage, you can typically deduct the interest you pay on the loan up to $750,000 ($1,000,000 if taken before December 16, 2017) but only if you itemize your deductions (schedule A) You can also deduct points you paid if you itemize. Many people miss deducting points on their tax returns when they purchase a house, but you have to meet some criteria like:
  1. The points relate to a mortgage to buy, build or improve your principal residence
  2. Points were reasonable amount charged in that area
  3. You provide funds (at or before closing) at least equal to the points charged
  4. The points clearly show on the settlement statement
In general, points to get a new mortgage or to refinance an existing mortgage are deducted ratably over the term of the loan.  Note that the deductible points not included on Form 1098 (the mortgage interest form) should be entered on Schedule A (Form 1040), Itemized Deductions, line 8c “Points not reported to you on Form 1098.” 2. Property taxes Property taxes can be deducted on your tax return if you itemize deductions. The total amount of taxes (including state and local income taxes) is capped at $40,400 for 2026. This cap is temporary and will increase by 1% annually through 2029 before reverting to $10,000 in 2030. If you make between $500k to $600k of modified adjusted gross income, the $40.4k deduction is reduced by 30% for each dollar you make. At $600k MAGI, the deduction drops to $10k, potentially raising marginal tax rates to 45.5% (!) for singles due to “SALT torpedo” if you are in the $500-600k range. If you are at that range, it’s recommended to mitigate this by lowering AGI/MAGI by maximizing pre-tax 401(k)/403(b), HSA, FSA contributions, timing RSU sales, tax loss harvesting, or deferring income/accelerating expenses for business owners. 3. Improvements Improvements are significant enhancements made to your home that increase its value. Many people overpay on taxes when they ultimately sell their house because they don’t keep track of these improvements. Here are some examples provided by the IRS: > Putting an addition on your home > Replacing an entire roof > Paving your driveway > Installing central air conditioning > Rewiring your home > Building a new deck > Kitchen upgrades > Lawn sprinkler system > New siding > Built in appliances > Fireplace Now, these costs aren’t deducted, but they are added to your home’s cost basis. This could lead to lower capital gains taxes when you sell your property (more on this later). Repairs, on the other hand, don’t impact your basis and don’t affect your taxes (e.g. repairing a broken fixture, patching cracks, etc) You will need to document every improvement, as this can help you save money on taxes. Keep your receipts and invoices (upload them to Google Drive) and record the dates and descriptions of the work done. Taxes when selling your house When you sell your house, here’s the formula: Selling price  > Selling expenses (like realtor fees) > Adjusted cost basis (how much you purchased it for + all these capital improvements I talked about above + any closing costs you paid when you acquired the home (legal fees, recording, survey, stamp taxed, title insurance) = Gain/Loss You will need to pay capital gains tax if there is a gain, but, luckily there is a gain exclusion (Section 121 exclusion) that can also help you save on taxes: 4. Gain exclusion If you sell your primary residence, you may be able to exclude up to $250,000 ($500,000 for married) of the gain from taxes if you meet some conditions. > Ownership (must have owned the home for at least 24 months within the 5 years prior to sale. For married couples only one spouse needs to meet this requirement) > Residence (you must have used the home as your main residence for at least 24 non-consecutive months during the 5 years before the sale. For married couples both spouses must meet requirements. > Look-back (you must not have claimed the exclusion on another home within the 2 years before this sale) Now, many people don’t know this but there is actually a partial exemption.  1. Work related move (i.e. you started a new job at least 50 miles farther from home) 2. Health related move (you moved to obtain, provide, or facilitate care for yourself or a family member) 3. Unforeseeable events (casualty, divorce, death, financial difficulty) 4. Special circumstances So, instead of claiming the full exclusion, you can exclude a prorated portion of the $250,000/$500,000 limit based on how long you owned and lived in the home. By the way, you can rent out a home for 2 years and still qualify for the exemption, as long as you lived there for the required period before selling (many people do this). 5. Tax example selling a home You bought a home for $200,000 (including all other costs) in 2018. You built a new deck, new roof and siding totaling $50,000. You now sold your home for $500,000. You are single. Selling costs are $20,000 (agent fees, etc) Sale price: $500,000 -$20,000 of selling costs (200,000 + 50,000) = -$250,000 (adjusted basis) Total Gain = 230,000 Exclusion = $250,000. Total taxes paid = $0. But what if you didn’t keep track of all your renovation costs like new siding or a deck? You would’ve had to pay taxes on $20,000 of capital gains!  Overall, knowing how these things work can literally save you thousands in taxes. Do you have any tips with homeownership? Share some in the comments!   Bogdan Sheremeta is a licensed CPA based in Illinois with experience at Deloitte and a Fortune 200 multinational.
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How Deals Hurt Returns

THERE'S BEEN DRAMA recently in a normally quiet corner of the market. This story got its start back in 2015, when Warren Buffett helped to merge food makers Kraft and Heinz. At first, it looked like a smart idea. Through cost-cutting, the combined company was expected to save more than $1 billion in annual operating expenses. “This is my kind of transaction,” Buffett said at the time, “uniting two world-class organizations and delivering shareholder value. I’m excited by the opportunities for what this new combined organization will achieve.” The excitement was short-lived, and many observers were skeptical from the start, mainly because Buffett had teamed up with a private equity firm called 3G to make the purchase. 3G had a reputation for being overly zealous when it came to cost-cutting. Initially, Buffett defended 3G. They “could not be better partners,” he wrote in his 2015 annual letter. But within a few years, it became clear that the skeptics had been right. Sales at the combined company began falling, and in 2018, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway recorded a $15 billion write-down on the value of its Kraft Heinz holdings. The following year, Buffett publicly acknowledged that the merger had been a mistake and that Berkshire had overpaid for its stake. “The business does not earn more because you pay more for it,” he said. In the years since, Kraft Heinz has continued to struggle with declining sales. To address the problem, in January of this year, the company brought in a new CEO, Steve Cahillane, and tasked him with splitting the company back up again. By that point, though, Buffett had changed his mind again. His view was that it was now better to leave the combined company intact rather than going through the costly exercise of trying to break it back up. A breakup, he said, wouldn’t create value. “It doesn’t do a thing, you know, for what the ketchup tastes like.” Despite his influence, though, the break-up plan appeared to be moving forward, and Cahillane took the helm on January 1 with that mandate.  Within weeks, Cahillane came around to Buffett’s point of view. The company’s woes were more fundamental, he told the board, and breaking it up wouldn’t address those core issues. Where things go next is an open question.  This story is notable because of Warren Buffett’s involvement, but it turns out not to be so unusual. Studies over the years have found that corporate mergers and acquisitions, on average, do not create value. According to a study by KPMG of more than 3,000 acquisitions, 57% of deals were found to detract from shareholder value rather than increase it. Other research puts the failure rate in the neighborhood of 70%. Aswath Damodaran, a finance professor at NYU, sums it up this way: “More value is destroyed by acquisitions than by any other action that companies take.” Why do so many transactions detract from shareholder value? Economist Richard Thaler attributes it to what he calls the “winner’s curse.” This phenomenon was first identified in the petroleum industry, where competitive auctions are held for oil leases. Research found that the winners of these competitive auctions often ended up disappointed—not because they didn’t find any oil, but simply because they had overpaid. Thaler explains that auctions—especially when there are large numbers of bidders—can cause some participants to become emotional, to the point that they become undisciplined and end up bidding too much. The winners in these situations are thus “cursed” because they’re the ones who were willing to overpay the most and thus tend to be most disappointed. Thaler found that the winner’s curse dynamic appears across industries, and that is what explains the poor track record of corporate acquisitions. Competitive situations, whether it was in the Kraft-Heinz case, or in the one that recently played out in the competition for Paramount, can cause prices to go too high. That’s great for sellers but a key reason why acquirers often end up regretting their decisions and why a large number of corporate takeovers end up being reversed. So why, despite all this data, do corporate managers—including even Warren Buffett—pursue these transactions? There are three key reasons.  The first is that they’re an easy way for companies to combat stagnant growth—much easier than the hard work of developing new products. This helps explain the Kraft-Heinz tie-up. According to a write-up in 2015, when the merger was first announced, many of Kraft’s businesses had been stalled out, delivering zero or even negative growth. Another reason mergers and acquisitions are popular despite the odds: Corporate managers tend to overestimate the economic benefits—so-called synergies—that will result from a transaction. Consider companies like Kraft and Heinz. It was easy to make the argument that two companies in the same industry would be able to gain significant efficiencies by combining operations and realizing economies of scale. And since some number of transactions do succeed, even if it’s only a minority, it’s natural for corporate managers to believe that their transaction will be the one to beat the odds. In a 1986 paper, economist Richard Roll identified a related phenomenon, which he dubbed “the hubris hypothesis.” The logic is as follows: Corporate managers who find themselves in a position to be making acquisitions are, by definition, probably doing well. Their stock prices are up, and they likely have cash in the bank. Because their businesses are strong, they’re more likely to feel self-confident in their ability to succeed with a merger or an acquisition even when the data suggests the odds are against them. The lesson for individual investors? Companies will probably always pursue transactions like this that end up subtracting from shareholder value. But since there’s no way to predict when this will happen, I see this as yet another reason to choose broadly-diversified index funds, where any one company’s mistake generally won’t have too much of a negative impact. Also, to the extent that the company being acquired is also in the index, passive fund investors can enjoy the benefits that accrue to that company’s shareholders.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
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Simplify Everything

"Doug, Thanks for the suggestion. I use about 50 different passwords and don't use qwerty+digits anymore. All of them conform to: upper, lower, special character and number, but are rarely longer than 9 or 10 keystrokes. What do you think of using those google Chrome recommended multi-character passwords that show up every once in a while when I go to some new site? (I use Chrome, Firefox, Opera, and Safari for various sites...do you recommend one more than another?)"
- John D.
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Perfection, enemy of good

"Kristine ....spot on. I see lifestlye creep with my 2 boys & their significant others. All with new leased cars as opposed to buying a older used car. We live approx. 12 miles from Manhattan. Bus stop 5 minute walk from our townhouse. NJ Transit bus to midtown $9.50.....Uber usually $50'ish to $65.00 each way. They Uber it. Food shopping - the one significant other doesn't like it. Instacart or a similar service. Multiple vacations to the Caribbean, Mexico or Europe yearly. At this point I can't imagine either owning a home. They all make what I would consider relatively good money. The downside is we live in a very pricey area. Keep hoping they will wake up!"
- Kevin N
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Financial regrets about parenthood?

"Rewarding for most people, but not all. And obviously Mike grew up in an environment where that was not the case and he did not want to risk that being repeated."
- Doug C
Read more »

Lent, Chocolate, and the Art of Retirement

"What a lovely coincidence — my wife and I have just returned from a walk into the little village of Bushmills, near our vacation home, where we picked up scallions for the colcannon we're making tonight... although we call it champ."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Note to HD Writers and Contributors

"First Elaine, belated condolences. I had no doubt HD would change without Jon's steady hand at the helm, but apologies on behalf of those who may have directed vitriol either at you or the site, which seems simply nuts. I'm still here as a reader, as I was way back in the day when Jon was at the WSJ. Sure, maybe it's a bit different, but still one of the very best personal finance sites out there. Best."
- medhat
Read more »

Tax Efficiency

TAX EFFICIENT FUND placement is an often underrated topic. The goal of the tax efficient fund placement is to minimize taxes within your investments, and select the right account for those investments.

But how much does that actually matter?

Vanguard’s research finds that a thoughtful asset location strategy can add significantly more value than an equal location strategy. The value added typically ranges from 5 to 30 basis points of after-tax return, depending on circumstances (e.g., income, portfolio size).

Investors generally have access to different account types, including:

  • Tax-free accounts (Roth IRA, Roth 401(k))
  • Taxable brokerage accounts
  • Tax-deferred accounts (401(k), 403(b), Traditional IRA)

If you are an employee that may not have access to a retirement plan, you could perhaps consider a Solo 401(k) if you have "side hustle" business income.

Generally, if your investments are all in tax-deferred or tax-free accounts, fund placement will not make a huge difference for you. That is because these accounts already come with tax efficiency.

If that's your case, two things become important though:

1. Consideration between pre-tax, like Traditional 401(k) or after-tax account, like Roth 401(k). Put simply, this decision generally comes down to your marginal tax rate now versus marginal tax rate in the future (which isn't something easy to predict due to the ever-changing tax landscape).

2. Account allocation. It becomes equally important where exactly you are investing. Roth accounts grow tax-free and qualified withdrawals are tax-free. You likely don't want to hinder that growth by choosing conservative assets (like fixed income, Money Market Funds, and so on).

Tax-efficient fund placement becomes extremely important when you also have a taxable brokerage account, along with tax-advantaged accounts. Many funds pay dividends and distribute capital gains if placed in your taxable brokerage account. At the end of the year, you receive a 1099 with that income and must pay taxes on the dividends and certain distributions.

One thing to call out from history is that you generally shouldn't hold Target Date Retirement mutual funds (or any "proprietary" funds) in your brokerage account. This is because unexpected redemptions could cause a huge tax bill.

You may remember a Vanguard 2021 fiasco where Vanguard opened an institutional TDF to more investors (lowered the minimum investment from $100M to $5M), which caused smaller retirement plans to sell out of individual funds and move into the institutional fund. This triggered massive unexpected capital gains for anyone invested in the individual funds if held in a brokerage account.

All of those unnecessary taxes could've been avoided by:

  • Choosing investments that don’t distribute many dividends or capital gains
  • Choosing passively managed investments (low portfolio turnover)
  • Placing them in tax-advantaged accounts

Let me give you a simple example:

Let’s say you are in a 22% federal tax bracket and a 5% state tax bracket, and you have some money invested in a dividend fund like Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD). SCHD dividends are generally qualified, which means that the dividends get preferential treatment at a 15% federal tax rate for this investor.

The dividend yield is 3.43%. Considering the tax rates, the tax drag is (15% + 5%) * 3.43% = 0.686%.

To put this in perspective, a $10,000 investment will yield ~$343 in annual dividends. The tax impact on that investment will be $60.86.

Of course, if that money was in a Roth IRA, you would pay $0 in taxes on dividend distributions. Alternatively, this is something you may need to decide whether a dividend-focused investing strategy is the right one for you. For example, a Total US Stock Market ETF could have almost 3x less tax drag, and potentially more growth.

As someone in their 20s (who is subject to the Net Investment Income Tax) my focus is 100% on a growth investment strategy, rather than income generation. For someone in their 60s, that strategy could be different (even though selling shares for capital gains is better from a tax timing point of view).

A few more important points:

REIT stocks/ETFs are the least tax-efficient asset class to hold in a brokerage account because their distributions aren’t qualified, so you pay more tax (even though it may qualify for a 199A deduction).

Stocks that don’t pay dividends are the most tax-efficient to hold within your taxable account (Adobe, Amazon, Netflix, and others). However, holding individual stocks may not be the best strategy from an investment and diversification standpoint.

A big benefit of a taxable account is that the money is always easily accessible (liquidity), and you can control your withdrawal timing. While there are strategies that allow you to withdraw from retirement accounts before age 59 (like Rule of 55, 72(t) SoSEPP, Roth conversions), a brokerage account is more flexible. Therefore, analyzing the contributions and investments that go into this account is crucial.

How do you maximize tax efficiency? Let us know in the comments!   Bogdan Sheremeta is a licensed CPA based in Illinois with experience at Deloitte and a Fortune 200 multinational.  

Read more »

Giving Up on Owning a Home

"Primary purpose is shelter, but this is a bit simplistic. Other things we value about our house: Within a walkable mile of public transportation into NYC. Decent local bus routes just three blocks away. Ample parking. Same walkable range to two different downtowns including one high end supermarket, restaurants, places of worship (which host nonreligious community events as well), decent schools, parks, libraries, etc. Neighbors who are community. My kids have different views of what dream house means.(This may be an article someday.) Then there is the issue of maintenance vs appreciation. As a proportion to house value, our property taxes have dropped, but they do increase every year. Homeowner's insurance, on the other hand, has soared. We just signed a contract for a $13.5k plumbing repair. In 2020 we spent $30k on a detatched garage repair (the foundation was crumbling on 2 sides and needed a new door and electrical servive.) We need outdoor painting every ten years. I could continue, but you get the point. If something goes very wrong in a rental, you move. If something goes wrong in an owned property, you better be insured for it with a company that pays out."
- Cammer Michael
Read more »

Blood Money

"Michael, got it and thanks for answering. Perhaps an idea for another article. Don't think I've seen anything about Net Unrealized Appreciation (NUA) rollovers on Humble Dollar."
- Jim Burrows
Read more »

Stock Market Contest

"It would be interesting if there were a control group, comprised of a basket of Vanguard Index Funds."
- normr60189
Read more »

How Deals Hurt Returns

THERE'S BEEN DRAMA recently in a normally quiet corner of the market. This story got its start back in 2015, when Warren Buffett helped to merge food makers Kraft and Heinz. At first, it looked like a smart idea. Through cost-cutting, the combined company was expected to save more than $1 billion in annual operating expenses. “This is my kind of transaction,” Buffett said at the time, “uniting two world-class organizations and delivering shareholder value. I’m excited by the opportunities for what this new combined organization will achieve.” The excitement was short-lived, and many observers were skeptical from the start, mainly because Buffett had teamed up with a private equity firm called 3G to make the purchase. 3G had a reputation for being overly zealous when it came to cost-cutting. Initially, Buffett defended 3G. They “could not be better partners,” he wrote in his 2015 annual letter. But within a few years, it became clear that the skeptics had been right. Sales at the combined company began falling, and in 2018, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway recorded a $15 billion write-down on the value of its Kraft Heinz holdings. The following year, Buffett publicly acknowledged that the merger had been a mistake and that Berkshire had overpaid for its stake. “The business does not earn more because you pay more for it,” he said. In the years since, Kraft Heinz has continued to struggle with declining sales. To address the problem, in January of this year, the company brought in a new CEO, Steve Cahillane, and tasked him with splitting the company back up again. By that point, though, Buffett had changed his mind again. His view was that it was now better to leave the combined company intact rather than going through the costly exercise of trying to break it back up. A breakup, he said, wouldn’t create value. “It doesn’t do a thing, you know, for what the ketchup tastes like.” Despite his influence, though, the break-up plan appeared to be moving forward, and Cahillane took the helm on January 1 with that mandate.  Within weeks, Cahillane came around to Buffett’s point of view. The company’s woes were more fundamental, he told the board, and breaking it up wouldn’t address those core issues. Where things go next is an open question.  This story is notable because of Warren Buffett’s involvement, but it turns out not to be so unusual. Studies over the years have found that corporate mergers and acquisitions, on average, do not create value. According to a study by KPMG of more than 3,000 acquisitions, 57% of deals were found to detract from shareholder value rather than increase it. Other research puts the failure rate in the neighborhood of 70%. Aswath Damodaran, a finance professor at NYU, sums it up this way: “More value is destroyed by acquisitions than by any other action that companies take.” Why do so many transactions detract from shareholder value? Economist Richard Thaler attributes it to what he calls the “winner’s curse.” This phenomenon was first identified in the petroleum industry, where competitive auctions are held for oil leases. Research found that the winners of these competitive auctions often ended up disappointed—not because they didn’t find any oil, but simply because they had overpaid. Thaler explains that auctions—especially when there are large numbers of bidders—can cause some participants to become emotional, to the point that they become undisciplined and end up bidding too much. The winners in these situations are thus “cursed” because they’re the ones who were willing to overpay the most and thus tend to be most disappointed. Thaler found that the winner’s curse dynamic appears across industries, and that is what explains the poor track record of corporate acquisitions. Competitive situations, whether it was in the Kraft-Heinz case, or in the one that recently played out in the competition for Paramount, can cause prices to go too high. That’s great for sellers but a key reason why acquirers often end up regretting their decisions and why a large number of corporate takeovers end up being reversed. So why, despite all this data, do corporate managers—including even Warren Buffett—pursue these transactions? There are three key reasons.  The first is that they’re an easy way for companies to combat stagnant growth—much easier than the hard work of developing new products. This helps explain the Kraft-Heinz tie-up. According to a write-up in 2015, when the merger was first announced, many of Kraft’s businesses had been stalled out, delivering zero or even negative growth. Another reason mergers and acquisitions are popular despite the odds: Corporate managers tend to overestimate the economic benefits—so-called synergies—that will result from a transaction. Consider companies like Kraft and Heinz. It was easy to make the argument that two companies in the same industry would be able to gain significant efficiencies by combining operations and realizing economies of scale. And since some number of transactions do succeed, even if it’s only a minority, it’s natural for corporate managers to believe that their transaction will be the one to beat the odds. In a 1986 paper, economist Richard Roll identified a related phenomenon, which he dubbed “the hubris hypothesis.” The logic is as follows: Corporate managers who find themselves in a position to be making acquisitions are, by definition, probably doing well. Their stock prices are up, and they likely have cash in the bank. Because their businesses are strong, they’re more likely to feel self-confident in their ability to succeed with a merger or an acquisition even when the data suggests the odds are against them. The lesson for individual investors? Companies will probably always pursue transactions like this that end up subtracting from shareholder value. But since there’s no way to predict when this will happen, I see this as yet another reason to choose broadly-diversified index funds, where any one company’s mistake generally won’t have too much of a negative impact. Also, to the extent that the company being acquired is also in the index, passive fund investors can enjoy the benefits that accrue to that company’s shareholders.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
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Manifesto

NO. 6: OUR FINANCIAL life involves endless tradeoffs. We usually have a good idea of what our dollars are buying us. But to be good stewards of our wealth, we should also ponder what we’re giving up.

Truths

NO. 112: ALL-TIME highs in the stock market shouldn’t cause alarm. Investors often get unnerved when they see the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the S&P 500-stock index hit one new high after another. But because share prices trend upward over the long haul, all-time highs happen often—and don’t necessarily signal an imminent market downturn.

humans

NO. 56: FOLKS might talk about the economy or boast about their investment winners, but they’re often reluctant to reveal details of their financial life, even to close family. But such conversations can help educate our children about money, give our spouse a deeper understanding of the household finances and help us figure out how we can best assist our kids.

act

CREATE A WISH LIST. Want more happiness from your dollars? Write down the major purchases you’d like to make in the years ahead—perhaps a car, vacation or kitchen remodeling. Regularly revise the list, keeping only items you’re still enthused about. Result: You’ll make wiser spending decisions—and enjoy a long period of pleasurable anticipation.

Safety net

Manifesto

NO. 6: OUR FINANCIAL life involves endless tradeoffs. We usually have a good idea of what our dollars are buying us. But to be good stewards of our wealth, we should also ponder what we’re giving up.

Spotlight: Happiness

Christmas Thoughts from Henry van Dyke

“I am thinking of you today because it is Christmas, and I wish you happiness. And tomorrow, because it will be the day after Christmas, I shall still wish you happiness.
I may not be able to tell you about this every day, because I may be far away or we may be very busy, but that makes no difference—because my thoughts and my wishes will be with you just the same.
Whatever joy or success comes to you will make me glad.

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Priceless to Me

AT AGE 55, I’M PERHAPS a bit young to spend time reflecting on my life. My maternal grandmother died at 101, so I could have many more decades to go. Nevertheless, I find myself more nostalgic now than I was just a few years ago.
I often think back to my childhood and how it shaped who I am today. In 1976, when I was in fourth grade, my parents purchased a two-and-a-half-acre property in a small town outside of Eugene,

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Does a Happy Country Lead to Happy Individuals?

I have decided to post this as a separate post, not to distract from Jonathan’s post today, but to further explore the concept of what makes not an individual, but a country happy. If a country is happier as a whole it seems intuitive that the individuals in said country would be happier as well.
I have received some of my highest negative net rating in the past for posting these facts on Humble Dollar but since I am a glutton for punishment will post these facts again:
Every year World Population Review ranks the happiest countries.

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Can’t Compare

COMPARISONS ARE the death knell of happiness—and they aren’t good for our wallets, either.
If we’re to get the most out of our time and money, we need to devote those two precious resources to things we consider meaningful. But how do we figure out whether something is indeed meaningful to us, and not a reflection of the influence of others?
For “meaningful,” dictionaries offer synonyms such as “important” and “significant.” What we’re talking about are things that have some special emotional resonance,

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Slowing the Clock

THE FIRST TIME I remember realizing that “time flies” was during my senior year of high school. One of my class periods each day involved working in the school’s main office. My primary duty was to walk the hallways, gathering attendance sheets from each classroom.
It was a highly repetitive task, each day a replica of the prior one, with the route through the hallways never changing. On one of those days, I recall thinking,

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Pursuit of Happiness

NOW THAT I’M RETIRED, I use two metrics whenever I’m faced with opportunities that require an investment of time or money.
First, there’s ROTI, or return on time invested. I use this metric to determine if something is worth my time. I want to invest the bulk of my time in things that’ll make me happy. Some examples of high-return time investments are:

Seeing family and friends
Going on new adventures
Making new friends
Starting a business
Learning something new
Going fishing

Recently,

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Spotlight: Actor

Withdrawal Symptoms

I SHIFTED TO WORKING part-time more than a year ago. It was a way to ease into retirement and give me time to explore new activities. My reduced work hours were also a way to experience life without the singular job focus that had defined my working years and, indeed, my identity. My new part-time status was, of course, accompanied by a markedly shrunken paycheck. That allowed my wife and me to see what it was like to be without the guaranteed and steady income we’d relied upon for nearly three decades. After more than a year of working part-time, I fully retired two months ago. Without a paycheck, our bank account balance soon fell to a level where we needed to transfer funds from savings to pay the monthly bills. The amount I transferred was equal to just over half of my fulltime monthly paycheck. The mental anguish was palpable. I knew the day would come when we’d begin spending down our financial accounts. But I was mentally unprepared for the angst and anxiety that raged inside my head. This reaction was completely emotional—and totally unexpected. Before retiring, we’d done our math, considered dozens of scenarios, and had full confidence that our savings strategy over our careers was more than sufficient to provide for our retirement needs. We knew that our savings were, in the end, meant to be spent. Still, when the time came to withdraw funds from our investment portfolio, I was unable to sleep at night and had a devastating migraine lasting several days. It took two weeks for me to gather the courage to push the transfer button and reclaim some dollars from our savings. I was in a full “deer in the headlights” panic, caught up in an emotional state that couldn’t be overcome…
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A Dirty Business

I'M SLOWLY LEARNING not to let frugality prevent me from doing the things I love. One of my favorite pastimes is cooking outdoors during the heat of the summer. Nothing pairs better with steelhead trout than a homegrown, freshly picked Hungarian hot wax pepper, softened by the grill’s intense heat. The aroma of the pepper’s lightly scorched skin, complete with grill marks, is enough to make any mouth water. Simply pick the largest, throw it directly on the burner and wait patiently for the magic to occur. To appreciate the experience, you must plan ahead—which includes growing the peppers. Spring weather arrived a few weeks early in my part of Texas. I pulled out my dog-eared Old Farmer’s Almanac to check planting times. I decided to go against optimal recommendations, overconfident that my planting skills would be sufficient to protect the seedlings against the slim possibility of a late winter freeze. While starter pepper plants are common once spring is officially underway, they’re notoriously hard to find on the cusp of the growing season. My search began at my usual garden centers, but I was met with disappointment. They wouldn’t be in stock for at least two weeks. Dang. Undeterred, I expanded my search, driving through Houston in a crisscross pattern, scouring the inventory at second-tier gardening establishments. These are places where past searches have paid off, but the plants weren’t nearly as successful at surviving in my compost-enriched soil. Unfortunately, it was also too early for these places to carry the seedlings. Resolute in my desire, I even tried the big box hardware stores. Alas, still no paydirt. My search was now becoming a full-blown obsessive quest. I committed to driving, pedal to the metal, 10 miles west to a small, hidden-away urban nursery, tucked neatly on the edge…
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Frugality Has a Cost

I LIKE TO THINK OF myself as frugal, not cheap. The difference between these two is admittedly subtle—and, indeed, my wife insists that I straddle the line between them. That brings me to my lifelong do-it-yourself approach to all things home-related. I abhor paying for services that I can do myself. But sometimes, I wish I were a little less frugal. When we first moved to Texas, I tried saving money by doing my own yard work. Foolish me. My first attempt was on a 98-degree day in August. I was nearly finished when my brand-new push mower hit an immovable obstacle, damaging the blade and main axle. No problem. I would simply use a weed whacker to complete the job. I shrugged off my heat exhaustion, plugged in the cord and got back to work. Who knew that operating with a non-grounded extension cord would be a problem? Twenty-five minutes later, I heard a loud sizzle and pop, after which the weed whacker exploded in flames, completely melting the framework surrounding the motor driveshaft. My wife dialed a local grass-cutting service to finish the job. We’ve used them ever since, and our lawn has never looked better. I’m also frugal about calling repairmen, especially since I’m confident I can repair just about anything. In truth, I run at a 50% success rate when it comes to repairs. I fixed the washing machine and dryer—twice—but have failed with other major appliances. I remember being especially stubborn when it came to a broken dishwasher. My wife agreed that I could try my hand at repair, provided we still had clean dishes. Six months later, after suffering severe dishpan hands, I purchased a new Kenmore. In my defense, the problem was with the motherboard, and not a mechanical issue. I must say,…
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Hitting Reset

MY WIFE AND I TOOK a hiking trip last fall that included wandering through the foothills of the Ozark Mountains in Arkansas. The leaves were just starting to change colors, something I so badly miss living here in Texas. I returned exhausted and sore, yet mentally energized and invigorated. For the majority of the trip, we were untethered from technology: no cellphone service during the day, no newspapers or TV distractions, no political talking heads, and no e-mails requiring an immediate response. My rejuvenated mental state was partly due to the physical exertion, but also partly the result of escaping the constant deluge of news, financial and otherwise. You see, I’m a closet financial information junkie. Not a day goes by without checking the Dow’s and Nasdaq’s movements, looking for the best rates on certificates of deposit, or wondering when the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates. One of my favorite websites is finviz.com, a financial market visualization website. I check market data regularly and tabulate my net worth weekly. I rationalize my “need to know” as an effort to check that our portfolio really can sustain us through a 40-year retirement. Admittedly, even I find my behavior odd, especially since I don’t own any individual stocks. I have a plan in place, as described in earlier HumbleDollar articles. I contributed religiously to retirement accounts during my working years, stick to my investment strategy, and rebalance once or twice a year to my set asset allocation. My portfolio is predominantly comprised of a Boglehead-like mix of Vanguard stock and bond mutual funds. I also have a sprinkling of cash equivalents to help us weather retirement until we start Social Security. My mantra leans toward set it and then don’t mess with it. But as I see it, that doesn’t mean…
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Inns and Outs

MOST READERS HAVE likely graduated from the vacations of their youth, where they saved a few dollars by sleeping on a friend’s hand-me-down couch. Still, some of my fondest travel memories were shaped by such frugal accommodation. I once traveled cross-country on a summer camp trip with 48 other teens, touring the greater U.S. in a converted Greyhound bus. It was an eye-opener, visiting such heralded landmarks as the Statue of Liberty and the St. Louis Gateway Arch, as well as must-see kitsch like the Cadillac Ranch and the world’s largest ball of twine. We stayed in a different motel every night. The trip’s operator held down costs by favoring motels in the cheaper part of town, with four teens to a room, where they shared two double beds. Such sleeping arrangements never bothered me. I especially loved the motel rooms with vibrating beds. Twenty-five cents went a long way back then. Now, any room with a coin-operated bedframe is a warning sign. Same for any suite that has a coin-operated dispenser in the bathroom. From there, my taste in overnight stays evolved. Shortly after marrying my bride of now 36 years, I vividly remember taking her to Bar Harbor, Maine, to visit Acadia National Park. We stopped at lighthouses and cider houses along the way, and—for one night—found a cheap roadside motel with a partly shorted-out neon vacancy sign. It felt reminiscent of the Bates Motel, with an off-beat, standalone cabin office complete with a wraparound colonial porch. The sleeping quarters were located upwind in a heavily wooded area located 100 paces behind the office. The entire complex felt like the Hitchcock movie, creepy with a sense of unresolved mystery. I didn’t realize that we’d need to upgrade our stay if we wanted a room with windows. We slept…
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My Best-Laid Plans

I HAD MY SIGHTS SET on retiring at age 59. Not exactly FIRE—financial independence-retire early—but certainly a bit earlier than my peers, close friends and family. I wanted to seek new challenges after spending more than 25 years in academic research. Our financial plan was solid. My wife and I calculated we’d have more than enough retirement income. But my plans were upended, first by the COVID-19 pandemic and then by two life-threatening health issues. I’d spent three decades studying the immune system, with a specific focus on developing new ways to increase vaccine potency. The pandemic represented an opportunity to put all my theoretical knowledge to good use. As a researcher, I was well positioned to lead a team seeking to develop enhanced and novel vaccines. As an educator, I had the opportunity to teach medical students about SARS-CoV-2 and introduce them to an entirely new class of therapeutics. How could I possibly retire? Needless to say, I put my retirement plans on hold and jumped into the scientific void. I look back on the three additional working years not just with joy, but also with gratitude that I was able to contribute—at least in some very small way—toward helping the world work through the pandemic. I joined the scientific community on a common and exciting quest. It wasn’t easy. The increased pressure to produce solid data in a short period of time took a toll on my health. Put it this way: There’s never a good time to have a heart attack, but that’s doubly true if we’re in the midst of a pandemic. Luckily, the care I received was top notch. I escaped with some embedded hardware and no permanent cardiac damage. A year ago, with the pandemic in the rearview mirror, I returned to my earlier…
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