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What financial risks do we face? Don’t just consider what’s happened. Also ponder the bad stuff that didn’t come to pass.

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The High Cost of Financial Advice: A Tale of Two Portfolios Revisited

"The classic dilemma: use inflation to shrink the debt, or keep rates low to avoid drowning in interest payments? Honestly, I'm just relieved this particular headache belongs to people earning far more than I do."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

A Message to Young Readers: Your Crisis Is Coming.

"When our kids came along, we started a few different savings pots for them. One of those is an emergency fund that we've kept in reserve—we haven't handed these over to them yet. My eldest daughter is getting married on this exact date next year, and that's when she'll be getting hers. My other daughter is still a bit of a wild child, so I honestly don't know when I'll feel ready to broach the subject with her."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Helping Adult Children

"Good luck to you and your son with your real estate venture!"
- gnussen623
Read more »

Laid Off

"Venicio, while condolences are in order, so might be congratulations. I’m sure being laid-off after thirty years of commitment and service feels like (and is in my opinion) a form of betrayal. And I’m sure you both feel unmoored and mournful.  But if you both are in fact financially fine,,  I suspect that given time you will look back at this unsettling event as an unintended but ultimately fortuitous gift (i.e being able to fully share your retirement together, sooner rather than later). Major marriage altering events such as yours bring to mind the last lines of Milton’s “Paradise Lost”.  As you may recall, having been “laid off" by the boss, Adam and Eve are forced to retire from Eden.  I’ll leave you in the hands of Milton: Some natural tears they drop'd, but wip'd them soon;  The World was all before them,  where to choose Their place of rest,  and Providence their guide:  They hand in hand with wandering steps and slow,  Through Eden took their solitary way."
- Retired
Read more »

Don’t Let Mr Market Bully You: A Gentle Reminder of Your Built-In Protection

"The greatest mistake an investor can make is constantly changing their strategy. You should be grounded in the reasons behind your allocation and only review it if significant assumptions about spending, health, or lifespan have changed. A fee-only financial advisor is the best investment when fear or greed makes you want to take action. Unfortunately, the more intelligent you are, the stronger the “itch” becomes and seeking the counsel will save you regret."
- Mark Gardner
Read more »

High Interest Savings Accounts vs Bond funds

"I probably should have called it a stable value fund; my plan calls it common assets. It’s a short-term fixed income fund that can invest in longer maturities than a money market fund so can get a bit better return but still manages them to a $1 share price so is effectively cash. My particular one has done about the same as a MM lately, but in the higher inflation we had recently it strongly outperformed. "
- Michael1
Read more »

The ACA Financial Cliff … some helpful visuals (and hope for continued dialog)

""To rectify... ALL income." You taking money from a cash account or a Roth isn't income. Am I missing something?"
- Edwin Belen
Read more »

Value of Waiting

I WAS THINKING ABOUT Jonathan the other day on my morning walk, which happens more often than you might think. It’s hard not to think about him when you have HumbleDollar coasters in your living room and a HumbleDollar shopping bag in your car that you use for groceries. My wife confiscated the HumbleDollar cup I had been using for my morning tea, and it now has a new home in our bathroom holding her toothbrush and toothpaste. There’s even an apron somewhere in the house that Jonathan once sent to all the writers. Ever since I started writing for HumbleDollar in 2017, Jonathan has influenced my retirement. I now own the Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund (symbol: VT) in my investment portfolio because of his recommendation. He liked it for its “broad global diversification in one low-cost fund that covers virtually all publicly traded companies worldwide.” It struck me as a good way to simplify our holdings. I didn’t just borrow some of Jonathan’s investment ideas; I also borrowed some of his words he used when editing my articles. I began peppering my writing with words like fret, upshot, and folks. He once told me, “While your grammar is occasionally a bit dodgy, you have a great ear for language.” I was too embarrassed to ask him what he meant by a “great ear for language.” When I retired, I never imagined that writing for HumbleDollar would become such a big part of my retirement, and I’m grateful to Jonathan for that. I also didn’t think my retirement would be so fluid. I pictured something far more stable: remaining single, living in a one-bedroom condo, and fending for myself. My life now is different. I’m married and live in a three-bedroom home in another city. One of the biggest changes, however, has nothing to do with geography. It has to do with money—specifically, how financial decisions change when there are two people instead of one. I learned that lesson early in our marriage. We got married in August 2020. That December, I woke up one morning and saw blood in my urine. I went to an urologist who ran a series of tests, but it took about a month to determine the cause.   During that time, I decided to consolidate our remaining investment holdings to make things easier for Rachel to manage in case something happened to me. Most of our money was already at Vanguard, except for a 401(k) from my former employer that was invested in a stable value fund. It still held a significant balance. Without much hesitation, I moved it into a bond fund at Vanguard. Not too long afterward, the bond market nosedived. The fund performed poorly—especially compared to the stable value fund the money had been in. The upshot: I panicked—and paid for it. It wasn’t a good time to make a financial decision while I was under stress. Some of the worst money moves happen when emotions are running high—selling stocks at the bottom of a bear market or rushing to act after an unexpected windfall. More often than not, it’s better to wait until you’re clearheaded before making a decision. At the time, I was also fretting about whether Rachel would qualify for my Social Security benefit, which is much larger than hers. You have to be married for at least nine months. I found myself counting off the days. Another financial decision became more complicated simply because we were now a couple: what to do with the three properties we owned—my condo, Rachel’s house, and the house I had inherited. Neither of us wanted to be landlords at this stage of our lives. We were excited about getting married and starting a new life together. I decided to sell my condo during the pandemic, which wasn’t easy. Rather than wait, I accepted an offer of $380,000—$43,000 below the asking price. Rachel decided to wait and rent out her house for two years. She didn’t get caught up in the excitement or rush into selling. As it turned out, that patience paid off. When the for-sale sign finally went up, I would stop by the house to water the yard and rake the falling leaves. One day, a real estate agent and his client were there looking at the property. They kept asking me whether the price listed on the brochure was correct. Rachel’s agent had intentionally priced the house at the lower end of the range in hopes of creating a bidding war. I told them they would have to talk to my wife and her agent because it wasn’t my house. The agent asked how long we had been married. When I told him two years, he nodded and said, “I get it. She wanted to wait until she was sure about the marriage before selling the house.” Rachel laughed when I told her what he said. She wasn’t waiting to see if the marriage would work. She waited because selling a house is a major financial decision, and she didn’t see any reason to rush it. Two years later, the timing turned out to be just right. The market had improved and the strategy worked exactly as planned. There were multiple offers, and the final sale price was well above what it would have been earlier. At the time my wife sold her house, Zillow’s estimated price of my condo was $484,000—$104,000 more than I received. I don’t really know why I was in such a rush to sell. Maybe it had something to do with the pandemic, my mother’s recent death, my sister and brother-in-law moving out of state, or the stress of renovating our new house. It was an emotional time for me, and I was probably searching for some stability in my life. What I’ve learned—both from Jonathan and from being married—is that good financial decisions usually come from patience, not urgency. When I feel anxious or pressured to act, I’m more likely to make a mistake. When I slow down, think things through, and listen—especially to my wife—the outcome is usually better. Managing money well isn’t about always making the right move. It’s about avoiding the wrong ones—and knowing when to wait.  Dennis Friedman retired from Boeing Satellite Systems after a 30-year career in manufacturing. Born in Ohio, Dennis is a California transplant with a bachelor’s degree in history and an MBA. A self-described “humble investor,” he likes reading historical novels and about personal finance. Follow Dennis on X @DMFrie and check out his earlier articles.
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Choices, choices everywhere

"No, I don't. Nor do I want a car that tells its manufacturer (and/or a collection of insurance companies) where and how I am driving it. When I finally buy another I car I will have to spend a lot of time reading the manual and turning things off. On the other hand, I do want a car with a backup camera, blind spot detector etc. Did you see where I said "safely"? Unfortunately, that will mean I have to go car shopping, an activity I hate."
- mytimetotravel
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When $2100 is not what it appears. The Medicare Part D trap

"I looked the generic version of that drug up on GoodRx. In my area prices range from $6.87 at Sam's Club to $32 at CVS. I currently get my prescriptions filled at Harris Teeter, where it's $13.79. In other words, drug prices in the US are irrational. Welcome to laissez-faire capitalism. I just checked, and a prescription drug in the UK costs 9.90 GBP. Period. ($13.47 at the current exchange rate.) Or you can buy a Prepayment Certificate to cut the price on multiples."
- mytimetotravel
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Perfect Portfolio

WHAT'S THE BEST way to manage your investments? A new book titled Your Perfect Portfolio helps answer this question. I spoke this week with the author, Cullen Roche. Adam Grossman: The title is Your Perfect Portfolio with an emphasis on your Cullen Roche: I was very intentional about saying “your perfect portfolio” because everyone’s different, everyone’s unique. So I wrote this book with the intent of studying lots of different strategies and styles. I go into detail on the history behind the portfolios, why they’re popular, their origin story, then I describe the history of how they’ve performed, and the pros and cons, and who these portfolios might be good and bad for. The goal is to help people not only understand all the different options out there, but hopefully arrive at a point where they can look at certain styles or strategies and say, “This is the portfolio that’s perfect for me.” Adam: You start the book with 10 essential principles. One is that beating the market is very hard. Cullen: The numbers are daunting. Over 20 years, 95% of active investors will underperform a simple index. More importantly, beating the market is literally not a good financial goal, because typically when people are chasing returns, they’re really chasing risk. Adam: Another of your essential principles is that asset allocation is a temporal conundrum. Cullen: We talk about diversification across different asset classes, but people don’t often talk about diversification across different time horizons. Especially from a financial planning perspective, I think the difficulty is that it’s really a time problem. When you sit down with somebody and you start mapping out their financial goals, you’re really trying to make sure that people have enough money at certain times in their life. [Dartmouth College finance professor] Ken French said that risk is uncertainty of future consumption, which I think is a perfect way of summarizing it. Asset allocation, to me, is really a time-based problem. Adam: In the second part of your book, you discuss 20 different portfolio options. Let’s start with the simplest one: 100% bonds. What are the pros and cons? Cullen: I’m a huge advocate of very, very short-term instruments. I’m somewhat hypercritical of very long-duration bonds. I love the concept of matching assets to liabilities, which is what banks and pension funds do. It’s even more applicable to your average individual investor. So I try to be rigorous about matching assets and liabilities inside of portfolios, but when you get to longer-term Treasurys, they’re not very good liability matching instruments, because of the risk. Bonds can be wildly volatile instruments that, on a risk-adjusted basis, just don’t generate very good returns. Today, a 30-year Treasury bond is yielding 4.5%, and has a duration, or interest rate sensitivity level, of 18%. If you’ve got a 15-plus year time horizon, the probability of the stock market outperforming bonds is very, very high.  Adam: At the other end of the spectrum, there’s 100% stocks. If someone were 30 or 40 years old, with decades until retirement, should that person go all-in on stocks?  Cullen: You should think of your human capital as sort of a fixed income allocation. The income you’re generating from your job functions a lot like a bond, and so if you’re making $100,000 a year, you can think of that as a $1 million bond that is paying 10%. So someone who’s 20 years old, who’s got 40 years of runway, they actually have a lot more potential to take equity market risk, because they’ve basically got a 40-year bond that is going to be paying them 10% a year. It’s arguably the greatest asset that person has. They’ve got a much higher risk capacity because of that. Adam: Is age the only consideration in deciding on an allocation? Cullen: I also like to break it up by portfolio type. For a 50-year-old with a Roth IRA and a taxable account, their Roth has a very different return and risk profile than their taxable account. They’ve got the luxury in the Roth IRA of thinking of that account as maybe a multi-generational account. So that piece of your portfolio might be 100% stocks. Adam: So any given person might have more than one perfect portfolio? Cullen: Yes, you’re not just building one sort of homogeneous portfolio. You can pick and choose and have lots of different perfect portfolios of your own. Adam: Between the extremes of 100% bonds and 100% stocks, the book looks at the traditional 60-40 strategy as well as the Bogleheads three-fund portfolio. What are the pros and cons? Cullen: The three-fund portfolio is a bond aggregate fund, a domestic stock fund, and a foreign stock fund. It’s just three funds. It can be bought for close to 0% fees. It’s incredibly elegant in its simplicity. That and the 60-40 strategy have stood the test of time. But you can also argue that there are elements in them that are too simple. You don’t have a cash bucket, so if you’re going through 2022, and you were a retiree with the three-fund portfolio, you maybe didn’t feel that comfortable. You probably felt like you wanted a fourth bucket inside of that portfolio at times during that year.  Adam: After deciding on their perfect portfolio, how often should investors revisit their strategy? Cullen: Only when life changes. For longer-term goals, I don’t think you should tinker too much. You should probably just buy index funds and set it and forget it. Let them serve long-term needs. Adam: In deciding whether to change strategy, should investors respond to the news? Cullen: The financial media is incentivized to say almost hyperbolic things all the time, because they’re just trying to get your attention. And that’s counterproductive to a lot of what good, sound portfolio management requires.  Adam: Gold makes an appearance in some of the portfolios in your book. How do you think about gold? Cullen: Gold is a really tough asset to think about because it doesn’t generate cash flows. There’s no way to really value it. Some people view gold as almost like fiat currency insurance, which I don’t think is irrational. But nobody knows how to value it.  And it’s had this huge run-up. When an asset goes up a whole lot in a very short time period, that creates what I call price compression. Let’s say that gold can be reasonably expected to generate 8% per year, for instance. And let’s say it gains 70%, like it did last year. What happens, in my view, inside of an environment like that, is that you’ve taken a whole bunch of those average 8% years, and you’ve compressed them all down into one year. And what this does is creates much greater sequence of return risk going forward, where the probability is higher of the prices decompressing at some point. The classic example of price compression was the NASDAQ bubble. If you bought at the very top of the NASDAQ 100 back in 2000, you’ve generated an 8% return per year—a really good return, even if you picked the absolute worst time to buy. The kicker, of course, is that you went through 15 to 20 years of just horrific sequence of return risk inside of that portfolio. So when I see an asset booming like gold, that’s the risk. Adam: Another portfolio is the endowment model. It’s gotten a lot of discussion recently because of the potential for private funds to enter 401(k) plans. How should individual investors think about the endowment model? Cullen: This is a really hard one. You almost need your own research team to actually manage a good endowment portfolio. They’re really complex, they’re hard to replicate. And you’ve got a huge fee compounding effect inside a lot of these portfolios. For the vast majority of people, you really don’t need to try to do anything that sophisticated, because there’s other really simple models where you can get low-cost, diversified asset allocation without giving yourself brain damage trying to overcomplicate everything. Adam: In a paper you wrote in 2022, you introduced a concept you call Defined Duration Investing. Could you talk about how that works? Cullen: It’s kind of like a bucketing strategy, where I’m bucketing things into very specific time horizons, but I’m doing it in a much more personalized way, where each bucket is serving a specific financial goal and matched to a specific asset. Then you can allocate it in a much more quantified way, mapping out the expenses and liabilities. For instance, we need one year of emergency funds. That’s going into a T-bill ladder. We have a house down payment for $200K that we need to set aside. That’s going into a three-year instrument. And then you’ve got retirement goals 20 years out. We’re matching that to a 20-year type of instrument. You can start to build a rigorously, temporally structured portfolio utilizing this methodology. When I wrote the paper three years ago, I was trying to quantify the time horizon of the stock market, in order to quantify the sequence of returns risk in the market.  The thing that I always disliked about bucketing strategies was that they don’t really quantify or communicate the time horizon to people. They use these vague sorts of terms like “short-term” and “long-term.” The question I always run into is determining what long-term means. Learning to think across very specific time horizons is really useful, because it creates this clarity, matching assets to future liabilities. And I mitigate a lot of the behavioral risk in my portfolio, because I understand exactly what my asset-liability mismatch looks like, and if there is one or not.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
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I got the call

"I’ve advised friends over the years—back during my USAF career, I also briefed new troops on the Thrift Savings Plan and the importance of paying yourself first. More recently, I put together a small booklet for fellow Fed employees where I work."
- Jeff Peck
Read more »

The High Cost of Financial Advice: A Tale of Two Portfolios Revisited

"The classic dilemma: use inflation to shrink the debt, or keep rates low to avoid drowning in interest payments? Honestly, I'm just relieved this particular headache belongs to people earning far more than I do."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

A Message to Young Readers: Your Crisis Is Coming.

"When our kids came along, we started a few different savings pots for them. One of those is an emergency fund that we've kept in reserve—we haven't handed these over to them yet. My eldest daughter is getting married on this exact date next year, and that's when she'll be getting hers. My other daughter is still a bit of a wild child, so I honestly don't know when I'll feel ready to broach the subject with her."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Helping Adult Children

"Good luck to you and your son with your real estate venture!"
- gnussen623
Read more »

Laid Off

"Venicio, while condolences are in order, so might be congratulations. I’m sure being laid-off after thirty years of commitment and service feels like (and is in my opinion) a form of betrayal. And I’m sure you both feel unmoored and mournful.  But if you both are in fact financially fine,,  I suspect that given time you will look back at this unsettling event as an unintended but ultimately fortuitous gift (i.e being able to fully share your retirement together, sooner rather than later). Major marriage altering events such as yours bring to mind the last lines of Milton’s “Paradise Lost”.  As you may recall, having been “laid off" by the boss, Adam and Eve are forced to retire from Eden.  I’ll leave you in the hands of Milton: Some natural tears they drop'd, but wip'd them soon;  The World was all before them,  where to choose Their place of rest,  and Providence their guide:  They hand in hand with wandering steps and slow,  Through Eden took their solitary way."
- Retired
Read more »

Don’t Let Mr Market Bully You: A Gentle Reminder of Your Built-In Protection

"The greatest mistake an investor can make is constantly changing their strategy. You should be grounded in the reasons behind your allocation and only review it if significant assumptions about spending, health, or lifespan have changed. A fee-only financial advisor is the best investment when fear or greed makes you want to take action. Unfortunately, the more intelligent you are, the stronger the “itch” becomes and seeking the counsel will save you regret."
- Mark Gardner
Read more »

High Interest Savings Accounts vs Bond funds

"I probably should have called it a stable value fund; my plan calls it common assets. It’s a short-term fixed income fund that can invest in longer maturities than a money market fund so can get a bit better return but still manages them to a $1 share price so is effectively cash. My particular one has done about the same as a MM lately, but in the higher inflation we had recently it strongly outperformed. "
- Michael1
Read more »

The ACA Financial Cliff … some helpful visuals (and hope for continued dialog)

""To rectify... ALL income." You taking money from a cash account or a Roth isn't income. Am I missing something?"
- Edwin Belen
Read more »

Value of Waiting

I WAS THINKING ABOUT Jonathan the other day on my morning walk, which happens more often than you might think. It’s hard not to think about him when you have HumbleDollar coasters in your living room and a HumbleDollar shopping bag in your car that you use for groceries. My wife confiscated the HumbleDollar cup I had been using for my morning tea, and it now has a new home in our bathroom holding her toothbrush and toothpaste. There’s even an apron somewhere in the house that Jonathan once sent to all the writers. Ever since I started writing for HumbleDollar in 2017, Jonathan has influenced my retirement. I now own the Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund (symbol: VT) in my investment portfolio because of his recommendation. He liked it for its “broad global diversification in one low-cost fund that covers virtually all publicly traded companies worldwide.” It struck me as a good way to simplify our holdings. I didn’t just borrow some of Jonathan’s investment ideas; I also borrowed some of his words he used when editing my articles. I began peppering my writing with words like fret, upshot, and folks. He once told me, “While your grammar is occasionally a bit dodgy, you have a great ear for language.” I was too embarrassed to ask him what he meant by a “great ear for language.” When I retired, I never imagined that writing for HumbleDollar would become such a big part of my retirement, and I’m grateful to Jonathan for that. I also didn’t think my retirement would be so fluid. I pictured something far more stable: remaining single, living in a one-bedroom condo, and fending for myself. My life now is different. I’m married and live in a three-bedroom home in another city. One of the biggest changes, however, has nothing to do with geography. It has to do with money—specifically, how financial decisions change when there are two people instead of one. I learned that lesson early in our marriage. We got married in August 2020. That December, I woke up one morning and saw blood in my urine. I went to an urologist who ran a series of tests, but it took about a month to determine the cause.   During that time, I decided to consolidate our remaining investment holdings to make things easier for Rachel to manage in case something happened to me. Most of our money was already at Vanguard, except for a 401(k) from my former employer that was invested in a stable value fund. It still held a significant balance. Without much hesitation, I moved it into a bond fund at Vanguard. Not too long afterward, the bond market nosedived. The fund performed poorly—especially compared to the stable value fund the money had been in. The upshot: I panicked—and paid for it. It wasn’t a good time to make a financial decision while I was under stress. Some of the worst money moves happen when emotions are running high—selling stocks at the bottom of a bear market or rushing to act after an unexpected windfall. More often than not, it’s better to wait until you’re clearheaded before making a decision. At the time, I was also fretting about whether Rachel would qualify for my Social Security benefit, which is much larger than hers. You have to be married for at least nine months. I found myself counting off the days. Another financial decision became more complicated simply because we were now a couple: what to do with the three properties we owned—my condo, Rachel’s house, and the house I had inherited. Neither of us wanted to be landlords at this stage of our lives. We were excited about getting married and starting a new life together. I decided to sell my condo during the pandemic, which wasn’t easy. Rather than wait, I accepted an offer of $380,000—$43,000 below the asking price. Rachel decided to wait and rent out her house for two years. She didn’t get caught up in the excitement or rush into selling. As it turned out, that patience paid off. When the for-sale sign finally went up, I would stop by the house to water the yard and rake the falling leaves. One day, a real estate agent and his client were there looking at the property. They kept asking me whether the price listed on the brochure was correct. Rachel’s agent had intentionally priced the house at the lower end of the range in hopes of creating a bidding war. I told them they would have to talk to my wife and her agent because it wasn’t my house. The agent asked how long we had been married. When I told him two years, he nodded and said, “I get it. She wanted to wait until she was sure about the marriage before selling the house.” Rachel laughed when I told her what he said. She wasn’t waiting to see if the marriage would work. She waited because selling a house is a major financial decision, and she didn’t see any reason to rush it. Two years later, the timing turned out to be just right. The market had improved and the strategy worked exactly as planned. There were multiple offers, and the final sale price was well above what it would have been earlier. At the time my wife sold her house, Zillow’s estimated price of my condo was $484,000—$104,000 more than I received. I don’t really know why I was in such a rush to sell. Maybe it had something to do with the pandemic, my mother’s recent death, my sister and brother-in-law moving out of state, or the stress of renovating our new house. It was an emotional time for me, and I was probably searching for some stability in my life. What I’ve learned—both from Jonathan and from being married—is that good financial decisions usually come from patience, not urgency. When I feel anxious or pressured to act, I’m more likely to make a mistake. When I slow down, think things through, and listen—especially to my wife—the outcome is usually better. Managing money well isn’t about always making the right move. It’s about avoiding the wrong ones—and knowing when to wait.  Dennis Friedman retired from Boeing Satellite Systems after a 30-year career in manufacturing. Born in Ohio, Dennis is a California transplant with a bachelor’s degree in history and an MBA. A self-described “humble investor,” he likes reading historical novels and about personal finance. Follow Dennis on X @DMFrie and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Choices, choices everywhere

"No, I don't. Nor do I want a car that tells its manufacturer (and/or a collection of insurance companies) where and how I am driving it. When I finally buy another I car I will have to spend a lot of time reading the manual and turning things off. On the other hand, I do want a car with a backup camera, blind spot detector etc. Did you see where I said "safely"? Unfortunately, that will mean I have to go car shopping, an activity I hate."
- mytimetotravel
Read more »

Perfect Portfolio

WHAT'S THE BEST way to manage your investments? A new book titled Your Perfect Portfolio helps answer this question. I spoke this week with the author, Cullen Roche. Adam Grossman: The title is Your Perfect Portfolio with an emphasis on your Cullen Roche: I was very intentional about saying “your perfect portfolio” because everyone’s different, everyone’s unique. So I wrote this book with the intent of studying lots of different strategies and styles. I go into detail on the history behind the portfolios, why they’re popular, their origin story, then I describe the history of how they’ve performed, and the pros and cons, and who these portfolios might be good and bad for. The goal is to help people not only understand all the different options out there, but hopefully arrive at a point where they can look at certain styles or strategies and say, “This is the portfolio that’s perfect for me.” Adam: You start the book with 10 essential principles. One is that beating the market is very hard. Cullen: The numbers are daunting. Over 20 years, 95% of active investors will underperform a simple index. More importantly, beating the market is literally not a good financial goal, because typically when people are chasing returns, they’re really chasing risk. Adam: Another of your essential principles is that asset allocation is a temporal conundrum. Cullen: We talk about diversification across different asset classes, but people don’t often talk about diversification across different time horizons. Especially from a financial planning perspective, I think the difficulty is that it’s really a time problem. When you sit down with somebody and you start mapping out their financial goals, you’re really trying to make sure that people have enough money at certain times in their life. [Dartmouth College finance professor] Ken French said that risk is uncertainty of future consumption, which I think is a perfect way of summarizing it. Asset allocation, to me, is really a time-based problem. Adam: In the second part of your book, you discuss 20 different portfolio options. Let’s start with the simplest one: 100% bonds. What are the pros and cons? Cullen: I’m a huge advocate of very, very short-term instruments. I’m somewhat hypercritical of very long-duration bonds. I love the concept of matching assets to liabilities, which is what banks and pension funds do. It’s even more applicable to your average individual investor. So I try to be rigorous about matching assets and liabilities inside of portfolios, but when you get to longer-term Treasurys, they’re not very good liability matching instruments, because of the risk. Bonds can be wildly volatile instruments that, on a risk-adjusted basis, just don’t generate very good returns. Today, a 30-year Treasury bond is yielding 4.5%, and has a duration, or interest rate sensitivity level, of 18%. If you’ve got a 15-plus year time horizon, the probability of the stock market outperforming bonds is very, very high.  Adam: At the other end of the spectrum, there’s 100% stocks. If someone were 30 or 40 years old, with decades until retirement, should that person go all-in on stocks?  Cullen: You should think of your human capital as sort of a fixed income allocation. The income you’re generating from your job functions a lot like a bond, and so if you’re making $100,000 a year, you can think of that as a $1 million bond that is paying 10%. So someone who’s 20 years old, who’s got 40 years of runway, they actually have a lot more potential to take equity market risk, because they’ve basically got a 40-year bond that is going to be paying them 10% a year. It’s arguably the greatest asset that person has. They’ve got a much higher risk capacity because of that. Adam: Is age the only consideration in deciding on an allocation? Cullen: I also like to break it up by portfolio type. For a 50-year-old with a Roth IRA and a taxable account, their Roth has a very different return and risk profile than their taxable account. They’ve got the luxury in the Roth IRA of thinking of that account as maybe a multi-generational account. So that piece of your portfolio might be 100% stocks. Adam: So any given person might have more than one perfect portfolio? Cullen: Yes, you’re not just building one sort of homogeneous portfolio. You can pick and choose and have lots of different perfect portfolios of your own. Adam: Between the extremes of 100% bonds and 100% stocks, the book looks at the traditional 60-40 strategy as well as the Bogleheads three-fund portfolio. What are the pros and cons? Cullen: The three-fund portfolio is a bond aggregate fund, a domestic stock fund, and a foreign stock fund. It’s just three funds. It can be bought for close to 0% fees. It’s incredibly elegant in its simplicity. That and the 60-40 strategy have stood the test of time. But you can also argue that there are elements in them that are too simple. You don’t have a cash bucket, so if you’re going through 2022, and you were a retiree with the three-fund portfolio, you maybe didn’t feel that comfortable. You probably felt like you wanted a fourth bucket inside of that portfolio at times during that year.  Adam: After deciding on their perfect portfolio, how often should investors revisit their strategy? Cullen: Only when life changes. For longer-term goals, I don’t think you should tinker too much. You should probably just buy index funds and set it and forget it. Let them serve long-term needs. Adam: In deciding whether to change strategy, should investors respond to the news? Cullen: The financial media is incentivized to say almost hyperbolic things all the time, because they’re just trying to get your attention. And that’s counterproductive to a lot of what good, sound portfolio management requires.  Adam: Gold makes an appearance in some of the portfolios in your book. How do you think about gold? Cullen: Gold is a really tough asset to think about because it doesn’t generate cash flows. There’s no way to really value it. Some people view gold as almost like fiat currency insurance, which I don’t think is irrational. But nobody knows how to value it.  And it’s had this huge run-up. When an asset goes up a whole lot in a very short time period, that creates what I call price compression. Let’s say that gold can be reasonably expected to generate 8% per year, for instance. And let’s say it gains 70%, like it did last year. What happens, in my view, inside of an environment like that, is that you’ve taken a whole bunch of those average 8% years, and you’ve compressed them all down into one year. And what this does is creates much greater sequence of return risk going forward, where the probability is higher of the prices decompressing at some point. The classic example of price compression was the NASDAQ bubble. If you bought at the very top of the NASDAQ 100 back in 2000, you’ve generated an 8% return per year—a really good return, even if you picked the absolute worst time to buy. The kicker, of course, is that you went through 15 to 20 years of just horrific sequence of return risk inside of that portfolio. So when I see an asset booming like gold, that’s the risk. Adam: Another portfolio is the endowment model. It’s gotten a lot of discussion recently because of the potential for private funds to enter 401(k) plans. How should individual investors think about the endowment model? Cullen: This is a really hard one. You almost need your own research team to actually manage a good endowment portfolio. They’re really complex, they’re hard to replicate. And you’ve got a huge fee compounding effect inside a lot of these portfolios. For the vast majority of people, you really don’t need to try to do anything that sophisticated, because there’s other really simple models where you can get low-cost, diversified asset allocation without giving yourself brain damage trying to overcomplicate everything. Adam: In a paper you wrote in 2022, you introduced a concept you call Defined Duration Investing. Could you talk about how that works? Cullen: It’s kind of like a bucketing strategy, where I’m bucketing things into very specific time horizons, but I’m doing it in a much more personalized way, where each bucket is serving a specific financial goal and matched to a specific asset. Then you can allocate it in a much more quantified way, mapping out the expenses and liabilities. For instance, we need one year of emergency funds. That’s going into a T-bill ladder. We have a house down payment for $200K that we need to set aside. That’s going into a three-year instrument. And then you’ve got retirement goals 20 years out. We’re matching that to a 20-year type of instrument. You can start to build a rigorously, temporally structured portfolio utilizing this methodology. When I wrote the paper three years ago, I was trying to quantify the time horizon of the stock market, in order to quantify the sequence of returns risk in the market.  The thing that I always disliked about bucketing strategies was that they don’t really quantify or communicate the time horizon to people. They use these vague sorts of terms like “short-term” and “long-term.” The question I always run into is determining what long-term means. Learning to think across very specific time horizons is really useful, because it creates this clarity, matching assets to future liabilities. And I mitigate a lot of the behavioral risk in my portfolio, because I understand exactly what my asset-liability mismatch looks like, and if there is one or not.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
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Manifesto

NO. 71: WE SHOULD take a broad view of our bond holdings—and include our paycheck, Social Security and other bond-like income streams. Result? We may find we have too much in bonds.

act

THROW STUFF OUT. Almost all of us have too many possessions. Those possessions come with an ongoing cost if, say, we rent a storage locker or we feel compelled to own a larger home. A suggestion: Make it a rule that, for every item of clothing or every tchotchke you buy, you have to give away at least one—and perhaps two—items that you already own.

Truths

NO. 13: WE GET MORE pain from losses than pleasure from gains. This leads us to shy away from stocks, because we loathe market declines. We sell our winners quickly, fearful our gains will turn into losses. We also hang on to losers too long, hoping to “get even, then get out” and thereby avoid the regret that comes with selling for less than we paid.

think

AVAILABILITY. We tend to make decisions—financial and otherwise—based on information that easily comes to mind. That might include personal experiences, anecdotes we heard, recent events or events that resonated with us. The problem: This easily recalled information may lead us to misjudge the likelihood that something will happen.

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Manifesto

NO. 71: WE SHOULD take a broad view of our bond holdings—and include our paycheck, Social Security and other bond-like income streams. Result? We may find we have too much in bonds.

Spotlight: Happiness

Financial Happiness

ACCORDING TO THE World Happiness Report, Finland ranks as the happiest nation in the world, a title it’s held for eight years in a row.
Each time this report is updated, it makes the news for a day or two but then fades. That’s for good reason, I think. As much as Finland might be a nice place, it isn’t necessarily practical to suggest that anyone pick up and move.
The good news, though,

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Saving Happiness

RESEARCHERS HAVE spent decades probing the connection between money and happiness. For instance, a much-cited 2010 study by academics Daniel Kahneman and Angus Deaton found that folks tend to feel happier the more money they make—but only up to a point, which they estimated to be about $75,000 a year.
But using only income to measure the link between money and happiness is incomplete. Another study, entitled “How Your Bank Balance Buys Happiness,” analyzed the connection to people’s “cash on hand.” The researchers found that having more money in checking and savings accounts was associated with higher levels of life satisfaction.

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15 Ways to Happy

WE DON’T PURSUE MONEY just to put food on the table and a roof over our head. Instead, the hope is to enhance our life. On that score, it seems we aren’t doing terribly well: Our reported level of happiness is no higher than it was half a century ago.
Could we do better? I believe so. There’s been extensive research on happiness in recent decades. For those who want to dig into the details,

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Your Answers May Vary

IN THE WORLD OF personal finance, there’s no shortage of formulas and frameworks for making financial decisions. But it’s also important, I think, to see these as guidelines rather than as rules. Consider the textbook view of money and happiness.
What the research says is that, all else being equal, we should opt to spend money on experiences rather than things. Let’s say the choice is between spending $1,000 on a new watch or on a weekend away.

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Any Seat Will Do

WHEN OUR CHILDREN were little, we had season tickets to the Children’s Theatre in Minneapolis. We started taking our older child, and then brought his brother along when he was old enough to enjoy the show. We had tickets in the front row of the balcony.
Before my youngest son’s first show, he looked over the balcony railing at all of the people below. He asked why we were clear up here, when there were all of those people below us.

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Happy: 10 Questions

COULD YOU SQUEEZE more happiness from your dollars? Here are 10 questions to ponder:

Which expenditures from the past year do you remember with a smile? Which prompt a shrug of the shoulders and maybe even a twinge of regret? Use those insights to guide your spending in the year ahead.
Could you commute less? Research tells us that commuting is terrible for happiness. You might move closer to the office or try to work at home a few days each week.

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Spotlight: Zaccardi

A Worthy Choice?

A RECENT RULING from the Department of Labor appears to pave the way for more ESG (environmental, social and governance) mutual funds in 401(k) plans. Last week, Morningstar even launched an ESG-focused retirement plan service. ESG assets are modest compared to other parts of the money management business, but they’re growing fast. Fund flows are substantial in the U.S. and gigantic in Europe. Investors are increasingly putting their money where their conscience is. But is that really a good thing when it comes to building our long-term wealth? There’s data supporting the notion that stocks with high ESG scores perform relatively well. Critics, however, argue that impressive ESG fund performance simply reflects strong recent results for particular market sectors, notably technology. After all, tech firms and companies with an online-only presence have low carbon footprints—boosting their all-important “E” score. Aligning some of your wealth with your beliefs is fine. But as investors, we also need to keep sight of the cold-hearted truth that investing is primarily about building wealth. If we want to be charitable, it might make more sense to focus on donating part of our gains to our favorite nonprofits. One consequence of the Department of Labor’s favorable ruling for the ESG industry: 401(k) plan participants could be faced with more choice, and that often hurts investment decision-making. I’d rather just own a few low-cost index funds or even a single target-date fund. Would I ever consider an ESG fund? Only if its expense ratio was dirt cheap.
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Listen Up

WHEN I STUDIED FOR the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) exams, I snagged extra prep time by listening to textbooks while commuting. As boring as that sounds, it helped me absorb the dry curriculum—and it made listening to financial information part of my daily routine. While I no longer commute—or even own a car—I continue to plug in my earphones to catch up on the latest investment insights, often during my afternoon walks. Here are my eight favorite podcasts: The Long View. Morningstar’s Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak do a great job of interviewing portfolio managers, personal finance experts and other market pros. Investors seeking to learn more about the current investment landscape and finance generally should tune in. Consistent with the research firm’s thoughtful, data-driven approach, Benz and Ptak allow guests to talk while asking targeted questions. Animal Spirits. The Ritholtz Wealth Management team is famous for producing outstanding content for investors and financial advisors. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson have been at the mic for almost five years. Biweekly episodes consist of a no-nonsense approach to markets, including interviewing fintech firms and promoting sound, long-term investment concepts—all with a fun tone. They also dive into their latest favorite books and TV shows, an ever-popular segment. Standard Deviations. I’m a sucker for behavioral finance. To me, you won’t find a better communicator on the topic than Daniel Crosby, who has a PhD in psychology. He’s a frequent keynote speaker at conferences and has written several books on the subject. Infinite Loops. These Apple podcasts by Jim O'Shaughnessy and Jamie Catherwood hit each Thursday, offering a much broader perspective than the typical financial podcast. They’re a refreshing escape from the constant market news and noise that I usually subject myself to. CNBC’s Fast Money and Closing Bell: Overtime. HumbleDollar readers might scoff at listening to talking heads from shows focused on daily market action. I do it because panelists like Josh Brown, Ed Yardeni and Jeremy Siegel often bring commonsense to the crazy world of short-term trading. I also have to keep up with the day-to-day action for my writing gigs—it comes with the territory. “The Weekly Trend” by David Zarling and Ian McMillan, along with “Behind the Markets” with Jeremy Schwartz and Prof. Siegel, are also among my weekend market listens. Odd Lots. While reading Bloomberg articles requires a subscription, you can freely tune into Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway interviewing guests on fascinating macro topics. Inflation, supply chain issues and niche industry trends are among the topics covered. The hosts’ chemistry makes the show compelling, and their journalism skills are on full display. Kitces & Carl. Many financial advisors are familiar with Michael Kitces and Carl Richards. Kitces runs one of the most-visited research sites in the wealth management industry. Richards is famous for his simple and profound sketches published in The New York Times during his years as a columnist. Since I work with financial advisors, I never miss an episode. Rarely do I listen to a show and fail to come away with a cool writing idea. Your Money Briefing. This daily 10-minute podcast from The Wall Street Journal covers a market topic or personal finance issue. Journalists are brought on to talk about their recent articles. I particularly enjoy it when Laura Saunders, the newspaper’s tax expert, weighs in. Admittedly, I’m an information and research addict. Not everyone is like that and, indeed, some investors may be better off ignoring anything related to day-to-day market analysis and financial news. But if you want to learn more about the markets—and the information doesn’t prompt you to trade unnecessarily—you could do worse than listen to a few of the shows listed above. Mike Zaccardi is a freelance writer for financial advisors and investment firms. He's a CFA® charterholder and Chartered Market Technician®, and has passed the coursework for the Certified Financial Planner program. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikeZaccardi, connect with him via LinkedIn, email him at MikeCZaccardi@gmail.com and check out his earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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Submerging Markets

JULY WAS ANOTHER positive month for U.S. stocks, which gained 1.7%. But overseas markets were down 1.4%, with emerging markets faring even worse, tumbling 5.9%. Last week, the Chinese government clamped down on its education and technology industries, sparking a sharp selloff. The return of Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (symbol: VWO), which is 40% Chinese stocks, briefly turned negative for the year, while U.S. stocks continue to sport year-to-date gains of more than 15%. Sentiment is so bearish that The Economist featured emerging markets on its cover this weekend. The prudent course of action is to rebalance your portfolio once or twice a year to ensure your asset allocation fits with your long-term goals. Emerging markets comprise about 11% of the total world stock market, as measured by Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT). Straying from that number is effectively an active bet for or against emerging markets. When analyzing your portfolio’s composition, keep in mind that broader international funds may have a significant allocation to emerging markets. Volatility in any one market segment can prompt investors to question their allocation. While this past week’s steep decline in emerging markets is no more than a blip, it’s been many months since we’ve seen that sort of short-term hit in the stock market. It’s a little reminder to always keep a long-term focus when the headlines turn scary.
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It Could Be Worse

FEELING DESPONDENT about your 2022 investment returns? Yes, it’s been a grueling year for almost all stock and bond investors. But some folks have been hit far harder than others. In the bounce back from 2020’s coronavirus market crash, near-zero-percent interest rates, coupled with consumers flush with cash, made for pockets of irrational exuberance. High-risk growth stocks—like those owned by Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (symbol: ARKK)—captured the imaginations of Wall Street and Main Street alike. ARK Innovation rallied from a pandemic low of $33 to its February 2021 peak just shy of $160. But fast forward to today, and the fund’s shares have completed a roundtrip to their March 2020 bottom. The fund has plummeted some 80% from its all-time high and is off 67% this year alone. One fund has capitalized on ARK’s misfortune: AXS Short Innovation Daily ETF (SARK) sells short the entire ARK Innovation portfolio, in a bet those stocks will fall. AXS is up almost 86% in 2022.  But ARK Innovation is hardly 2022’s only big loser. In 2021, SPACs, short for special purpose acquisition companies, were a popular way for private companies to become publicly traded. But total issuance of new SPACs was down sharply in the first half of 2022 from a year earlier, and that trend has likely continued through the rest of 2022. What about the performance of companies that went public via the SPAC route? Bloomberg reports that the median post-merger SPAC company that debuted this year is down a stunning 70%. And we can’t leave out cryptocurrencies. Stalwarts like bitcoin and ethereum are down more than 60% in 2022, while smaller “altcoins” have fared even worse. Meanwhile, some stablecoins—tokens thought to be pegged one-for-one to the dollar—left investors with big losses as some crypto lenders went bankrupt in recent months. In all, the total value of cryptocurrencies is down some 65% year-to-date, dropping from nearly $3 trillion in November 2021 to almost $800 billion today. We shouldn’t expect gains every year in the stock and bond markets. Still, while a 15% to 20% drop feels lousy, it pales next to the crashes we’ve seen in these other assets. Moreover, while it’s debatable whether investors in SPACs, crypto and ARK Innovation will ever make back their losses, 2022’s pain in the mainstream stock and bond markets probably means better returns in the years ahead.
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Wrestling With Rates

THE S&P 500 WAS UP 0.8% last week. It was a wild ride, with the Volatility Index climbing to almost 40—the highest level in 15 months—as investors grappled with the threat of rising interest rates. The Federal Reserve is steadfast in its plans to aggressively raise short-term interest rates. Bank of America Global Research was the buzz of Wall Street on Friday morning, with its economic team saying it now expects the Fed to hike rates by a quarter-point at all seven remaining meetings this year. If Bank of America is right, we’ll be able to earn upwards of 2½% to 3% on money market accounts by the end of 2023. But keep in mind that forecasts vary widely. Still, the fear is that tighter Fed policy will lead to slower economic growth. Amid the monetary policy uncertainty, corporate earnings are coming in fast. FactSet’s earnings insight blog provides the latest earnings season figures. It’s been a solid but not spectacular reporting period thus far. FactSet says that 77% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates, near the five-year average beat rate. Aggregate earnings, however, are just 4% above analysts’ expectations, well below the 8.6% five-year average. With the S&P 500 down 7% year-to-date and earnings continuing to climb, price-earnings (P/E) ratios are becoming more reasonable. The U.S. stock market now looks cheaper than at any time last year. The ratio based on expected earnings is at 19.2, near the five-year average of 18.5, says FactSet. Outside the S&P 500—such as among foreign stocks—valuations appear much better. Meanwhile, the economy was humming along until Omicron hit. The Commerce Department reported Thursday that real gross domestic product grew at a 6.9% annualized clip in the fourth quarter. That’s the fourth fastest pace since the high-growth days of the mid-1980s. Much of the huge growth in the economy was the result of inventory restocking, which is seen as less indicative of sustainable growth. Looking ahead, economists expect the latest COVID variant to hurt job growth in January. We’ll get a fresh look at the employment situation on Friday. Some forecasters expect the Labor Department to report a drop in jobs after a stellar 807,000 gain in December’s employment report.
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Cash No Longer Trash

MONEY MARKET YIELDS are no longer zero. Far from it. With the Federal Reserve raising short-term interest rates by another 0.75 percentage point last week, investors can now park their savings in a safe money-market mutual fund and earn more than 2%. If you look at Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (symbol: VFMXX), you won’t see a seven-day SEC yield that’s that high—yet. But give it a few days. Right before the Fed’s move last week, Vanguard’s money market fund yielded 1.5%. Add 0.75 percentage point to that figure, and you’ll get a sense for where we’re headed. For folks with accounts at Fidelity Investments, another option is Fidelity Money Market Fund (SPRXX). The last time I reviewed Fidelity’s policies, it doesn’t allow that fund to be a default core cash position. Instead, you must opt to purchase the fund’s shares, just like you would any other fund. That means there’s an extra step to get the fund's higher yield, versus Fidelity Government Money Market Fund (SPAXX), which has a lower SEC yield but can be used as a default cash position. I stumbled across a Fidelity Institutional page that lists a “one-day” SEC yield of 1.96% for Fidelity Money Market Fund as of July 29. Earlier this year, I suggested people consider a short-term Treasury bond fund for their emergency savings. At the time, the yields on those funds were attractive relative to bank money market accounts and online savings accounts. I took my own advice. As it turns out, I was early with that call. Rates rose through mid-June, leading to modest share-price declines among the Treasury funds I mentioned in March. But now, with Treasury note yields declining over the past seven weeks while the Fed hikes short-term rates, I decided to make a switch. Late last week, I exchanged my emergency money, which had been sitting in Fidelity Short-Term Treasury Bond Index Fund (FUMBX), to Fidelity Money Market Fund. My plan now is to keep my cash in that money market fund through at least early 2023. That’s when traders see the Fed’s rate-raising campaign peaking in the 3.25% to 3.5% range. Thanks to the Fed’s actions and a Treasury yield curve that’s the most inverted it’s been since 2000, money-market mutual funds look like a relatively good deal—one that comes with little risk.
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