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Why Marlboro Gold is better Than Gold 

"Twinkies and cockroaches will survive Armageddon."
- Dan Smith
Read more »

Why I Own Gold Bars

"Like always, much of the gold accumulated in bars and coins eventually finds its way into jewelry. As Dorothy said in The Wizard of Oz, “We’re not in Kansas anymore.” Modern civilization runs on electricity, fertilizers, and plastics. Without those, our current standard of living wouldn’t exist. About preparing for a true “Level 3” scenario, I’ll admit that kind of world scares me more than it reassures me."
- Mark Gardner
Read more »

Always an investor?

"At 62 years of age, working part time and my wife fully retired age 57 we are still re-investing in stocks and bonds. We will be looking to do some Roth conversions over the next few years. I could see a scenario where future withdrawals from IRA's which are not earmarked for spending or gifting would be reinvested in taxable accounts and utilize tax efficient ETFs, municipal bonds etc."
- Grant Clifford
Read more »

Opinions Wanted: Please Reply Freely (I’m used to being called an idiot)

"There is no price tag(s) when it comes to family experiences and enjoyment with each other. I have also floated the idea with our family of 9 for an overseas trip maybe during Christmas. The memories you will have and shared are simply priceless. GO FOR IT as a gift of love and not a loan. If they want to repay that will be fine."
- achnk53
Read more »

No, it is not a scam

"Each chemo treatment costs about $24,000 between the chemicals and all related services involved. Of course Medicare does not allow it all, but the majority. Incredible."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Sector Fund by Stealth

I'VE RECENTLY MADE the most significant change to my own portfolio in thirty five years. For the first time I've moved away from pure market-cap investing, tilting meaningfully toward Europe and Southeast Asia and bringing my US technology concentration down to around fifteen percent. I'm retired. I don't need to chase the outperformance that concentration might deliver, and I don't need the potential volatility that comes with it. This is a personal position rather than any kind of recommendation; it's nothing more than a risk management decision made at a point in life where I simply don't need the risk. What prompted it was a growing discomfort with something I suspect many everyday investors haven't fully reckoned with: the S&P 500 is no longer quite the animal it once was. A broad market index fund casts a wide net across the economy, and the S&P 500, which tracks the 500 largest US businesses by market value, has long been held up as the sensible default: low cost, well diversified, a bet on the whole rather than any one part of it. A sector fund works differently; it makes a deliberate, concentrated bet on a specific industry. If you believe technology is going to outperform the market as a whole, it gives you the ability to concentrate your capital into exactly the sector your research or gut instinct suspects is going to be the place to be and let it run. The theory behind each is straightforward enough. A broad market fund captures a larger slice of the investment universe and is generally considered the lower-risk path. A sector fund comes with a well-understood trade-off: higher potential returns in good times, sharper drawdowns when sentiment turns. Investors who consciously choose a technology sector fund know what they're signing up for. The risk profile is understood, accepted, and priced into the decision. The problem is that the line between these two things has become a bit fuzzy, and most everyday investors haven't noticed. A handful of technology and technology-related companies (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet) have grown so dominant in their market valuations that they now represent a disproportionate share of the entire index. During the last year, the top ten holdings have accounted for roughly a third of the total weight of all 500 companies. The mechanism behind this is simply how the index works. The S&P 500 is market-cap weighted, meaning the bigger the company, the bigger its slice of the pie. As technology companies scaled their dominance through the 2010s and into the 2020s, their weight within the index ballooned accordingly. The index didn't change its rules; the market just rewarded one particular group of companies so heavily that they came to dominate the scoreboard. This means the investor who bought the S&P 500 believing they were spreading risk broadly across the American economy (energy, healthcare, financials, industrials, consumer staples) owns something that looks quite different to the story they were sold. You buy five hundred companies and a third of your money lands in ten stocks, most of them operating in the same broad technological ecosystem. That is a concentration risk, whether it is labelled as one or not. It's a sector fund “light”, acquired by stealth through the natural mechanics of market-cap weighting. The issue is that millions of everyday investors are carrying a version of that same risk without necessarily knowing it. Although I've used the S&P 500 as an example here, it isn't alone. Most broad-based indexes including developed world trackers will exhibit the same characteristics to varying degrees, because the same companies sit near the top of those indexes too. The MSCI World, often marketed as the global diversifier, allocates somewhere in the region of seventy percent to US equities, and within that, the familiar names reappear. You can cross borders on paper without ever really leaving the room. None of this is an argument against the S&P 500. The concentration reflects real, earned dominance; these companies grew to the top of the index because they genuinely deserved to. And whether my reallocation turns out to be the right call is genuinely unknowable. The concentrated index could continue to outperform for another decade and I'll have left returns on the table, a real possibility I've made my peace with. The point isn't that I've found the correct answer. The point is that I had the information to make a considered choice, weighed it against my own circumstances, and acted accordingly. That's all any investor can do. The uncomfortable truth is that a great many people haven't been given the chance to do the same. They're holding a product that has quietly changed its character, and nobody has thought to mention it. Better information doesn't guarantee better decisions, but it at least puts the decision where it belongs: with the person whose money it is. ___ Mark Crothers is a retired small business owner from the UK with a keen interest in personal finance and simple living. Married to his high school sweetheart, with daughters and grandchildren, he knows the importance of building a secure financial future. With an aversion to social media, he prefers to spend his time on his main passions: reading, scratch cooking, racket sports, and hiking.
Read more »

Buffett’s 90/10 is Wrong. Even Though it’s Right.

"Yes, that's my takeaway. But as Mark argues, I customize my numbers to fit my own situation. And I'm still drawn to Jonathan's repeated advice of a globally-diversified stock portfolio supplemented by five to seven years of short-term government bonds. Simple, yet sufficient."
- Edmund Marsh
Read more »

Allan Roth’s 2/13/26 article references Jonathan Clements

"I learned so much from Jonathan Clements. He was an amazing man both in life and as he approached death with so much dignity."
- Allan Roth
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Retirement Plan

"Agree with others. I did not get very far into the video. But the message about time is spot on."
- Jerry Pinkard
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Trump Accounts – An Update

"Gotcha. I misunderstood what it was. I thought he left some lump sum with instructions to have it grow to be used in 200 years (or something like that)."
- Ben Rodriguez
Read more »

Why Marlboro Gold is better Than Gold 

"Twinkies and cockroaches will survive Armageddon."
- Dan Smith
Read more »

Why I Own Gold Bars

"Like always, much of the gold accumulated in bars and coins eventually finds its way into jewelry. As Dorothy said in The Wizard of Oz, “We’re not in Kansas anymore.” Modern civilization runs on electricity, fertilizers, and plastics. Without those, our current standard of living wouldn’t exist. About preparing for a true “Level 3” scenario, I’ll admit that kind of world scares me more than it reassures me."
- Mark Gardner
Read more »

Always an investor?

"At 62 years of age, working part time and my wife fully retired age 57 we are still re-investing in stocks and bonds. We will be looking to do some Roth conversions over the next few years. I could see a scenario where future withdrawals from IRA's which are not earmarked for spending or gifting would be reinvested in taxable accounts and utilize tax efficient ETFs, municipal bonds etc."
- Grant Clifford
Read more »

Opinions Wanted: Please Reply Freely (I’m used to being called an idiot)

"There is no price tag(s) when it comes to family experiences and enjoyment with each other. I have also floated the idea with our family of 9 for an overseas trip maybe during Christmas. The memories you will have and shared are simply priceless. GO FOR IT as a gift of love and not a loan. If they want to repay that will be fine."
- achnk53
Read more »

No, it is not a scam

"Each chemo treatment costs about $24,000 between the chemicals and all related services involved. Of course Medicare does not allow it all, but the majority. Incredible."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Sector Fund by Stealth

I'VE RECENTLY MADE the most significant change to my own portfolio in thirty five years. For the first time I've moved away from pure market-cap investing, tilting meaningfully toward Europe and Southeast Asia and bringing my US technology concentration down to around fifteen percent. I'm retired. I don't need to chase the outperformance that concentration might deliver, and I don't need the potential volatility that comes with it. This is a personal position rather than any kind of recommendation; it's nothing more than a risk management decision made at a point in life where I simply don't need the risk. What prompted it was a growing discomfort with something I suspect many everyday investors haven't fully reckoned with: the S&P 500 is no longer quite the animal it once was. A broad market index fund casts a wide net across the economy, and the S&P 500, which tracks the 500 largest US businesses by market value, has long been held up as the sensible default: low cost, well diversified, a bet on the whole rather than any one part of it. A sector fund works differently; it makes a deliberate, concentrated bet on a specific industry. If you believe technology is going to outperform the market as a whole, it gives you the ability to concentrate your capital into exactly the sector your research or gut instinct suspects is going to be the place to be and let it run. The theory behind each is straightforward enough. A broad market fund captures a larger slice of the investment universe and is generally considered the lower-risk path. A sector fund comes with a well-understood trade-off: higher potential returns in good times, sharper drawdowns when sentiment turns. Investors who consciously choose a technology sector fund know what they're signing up for. The risk profile is understood, accepted, and priced into the decision. The problem is that the line between these two things has become a bit fuzzy, and most everyday investors haven't noticed. A handful of technology and technology-related companies (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet) have grown so dominant in their market valuations that they now represent a disproportionate share of the entire index. During the last year, the top ten holdings have accounted for roughly a third of the total weight of all 500 companies. The mechanism behind this is simply how the index works. The S&P 500 is market-cap weighted, meaning the bigger the company, the bigger its slice of the pie. As technology companies scaled their dominance through the 2010s and into the 2020s, their weight within the index ballooned accordingly. The index didn't change its rules; the market just rewarded one particular group of companies so heavily that they came to dominate the scoreboard. This means the investor who bought the S&P 500 believing they were spreading risk broadly across the American economy (energy, healthcare, financials, industrials, consumer staples) owns something that looks quite different to the story they were sold. You buy five hundred companies and a third of your money lands in ten stocks, most of them operating in the same broad technological ecosystem. That is a concentration risk, whether it is labelled as one or not. It's a sector fund “light”, acquired by stealth through the natural mechanics of market-cap weighting. The issue is that millions of everyday investors are carrying a version of that same risk without necessarily knowing it. Although I've used the S&P 500 as an example here, it isn't alone. Most broad-based indexes including developed world trackers will exhibit the same characteristics to varying degrees, because the same companies sit near the top of those indexes too. The MSCI World, often marketed as the global diversifier, allocates somewhere in the region of seventy percent to US equities, and within that, the familiar names reappear. You can cross borders on paper without ever really leaving the room. None of this is an argument against the S&P 500. The concentration reflects real, earned dominance; these companies grew to the top of the index because they genuinely deserved to. And whether my reallocation turns out to be the right call is genuinely unknowable. The concentrated index could continue to outperform for another decade and I'll have left returns on the table, a real possibility I've made my peace with. The point isn't that I've found the correct answer. The point is that I had the information to make a considered choice, weighed it against my own circumstances, and acted accordingly. That's all any investor can do. The uncomfortable truth is that a great many people haven't been given the chance to do the same. They're holding a product that has quietly changed its character, and nobody has thought to mention it. Better information doesn't guarantee better decisions, but it at least puts the decision where it belongs: with the person whose money it is. ___ Mark Crothers is a retired small business owner from the UK with a keen interest in personal finance and simple living. Married to his high school sweetheart, with daughters and grandchildren, he knows the importance of building a secure financial future. With an aversion to social media, he prefers to spend his time on his main passions: reading, scratch cooking, racket sports, and hiking.
Read more »

Buffett’s 90/10 is Wrong. Even Though it’s Right.

"Yes, that's my takeaway. But as Mark argues, I customize my numbers to fit my own situation. And I'm still drawn to Jonathan's repeated advice of a globally-diversified stock portfolio supplemented by five to seven years of short-term government bonds. Simple, yet sufficient."
- Edmund Marsh
Read more »

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Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 20: FRUGALITY isn’t just the key to financial success. It’s also no great sacrifice, because spending often brings only fleeting happiness—and sometimes even pangs of regret.

humans

NO. 21: IF WE'VE been good savers, it’s hard to become happy spenders. The key to building wealth is no great secret: We need to be committed savers. Yet saving can become too good a habit, one that folks struggle to shake once they retire. Remember, we save money not for the sake of saving money, but so we—or our heirs—can later spend.

think

COMPOUNDING. Each year, we earn returns not only on our original investment, but also on gains clocked in earlier years that we reinvested. Let’s say we started with $10,000 and made 7% a year. Without compounding, we’d earn $700 a year, leaving us with $24,000 after 20 years. But thanks to compounding, the final sum is much larger: $38,697.

act

TAKE ADVANTAGE of your growing wealth. You might avoid interest charges by paying cash for your next car, rather than borrowing. You could minimize financial account fees by always keeping the required minimum balance. You might trim insurance premiums by raising deductibles and lengthening elimination periods, and perhaps even opting to self-insure.

Borrowing

Manifesto

NO. 20: FRUGALITY isn’t just the key to financial success. It’s also no great sacrifice, because spending often brings only fleeting happiness—and sometimes even pangs of regret.

Spotlight: Insurance

Insuring Infirmity

LONG-TERM-CARE insurance and disability insurance can both be part of a comprehensive financial plan. But is it a good idea to have both coverages at the same time, or could one substitute for the other? After all, both policies are designed to help those who are, in some way, infirm.
To answer this question, let’s start with another one: What’s the purpose of insurance? The best use of any type of insurance is to guard against financial disaster.

Read more »

How Big is Your Umbrella?

Many HumbleDollar readers have saved and invested regularly over their working years and were able to retire comfortably. Unfortunately, a lawsuit could threaten that financial security.
One possible scenario: If, heaven forbid, you are involved in a traffic accident resulting in severe bodily injury or loss of life, a legal judgement against you could destroy your nest egg.
The liability coverage on a home or auto policy may not offer enough protection. For this reason,

Read more »

Value for Your Cash

TERM LIFE INSURANCE is best for most people: It’s affordable, simple to understand and provides the two or three decades of coverage they need. But that doesn’t mean that permanent “cash value” life insurance is always bad.
The most obvious situation: You actually need insurance permanently. Suppose you’re a business owner and you want to provide money for your family to pay inheritance taxes. By buying life insurance, you’d make sure your family receives a pool of income-tax-free money upon your death,

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Grab an Umbrella

ON FEB. 27, 1992, Stella Liebeck ordered a cup of coffee from a McDonald’s drive-through. Moments later, as she attempted to open the lid, the cup spilled, causing a burn that sent her to the hospital. Her injury was serious but self-inflicted and not life-threatening. Nonetheless, she sued McDonald’s, and a jury awarded her almost $3 million. That award was reduced upon appeal, but this case is often cited as an example of an out-of-control legal system exploited by personal injury lawyers.

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Works If You Can’t

BE HONEST: WHEN WAS the last time you thought about disability insurance? As co-founder of a website that sells insurance, it’s a topic I think about every day, but I realize most folks have other things on their mind. Yet becoming disabled is one of the biggest financial risks that working people face.
Disability can result from accidents or sickness and can impact people of all ages. According to the Social Security Administration, a 20-year-old entering the workforce has a one-in-four chance of becoming disabled for a year or more before retirement.

Read more »

Seeing the Benefit

SOMETIMES, I’M embarrassed to live in Florida.
Late-night talk show hosts have plenty of fodder for their jokes given the behavior of residents, visitors and our politicians. Fortunately, I don’t know anyone who fits the stereotype of “Florida Man,” but such folks clearly exist, or so these memes suggest.
We also endure hurricanes, scorching summers, soaring homeowner’s insurance rates and all kinds of odd creatures, from the native alligator to invasive species such as the green iguana and the giant African snail.

Read more »

Spotlight: Ehart

Some Gain, Less Pain

WHAT’S THE BIGGEST threat to your retirement? For young adults, we know a key pitfall is failing to invest in stocks because they’re so afraid of the market’s short-term ups and downs, thus unwittingly risking impoverishment later in life. But for those of us nearing retirement, the market’s ups and downs can start to matter more than stocks’ long-term inflation-beating performance. An ill-timed market crash or a run of bad annual returns could ruin our retirement plans. What to do? That depends on a host of factors, including your nest egg’s size, your ability to work longer if necessary, and the potential income and satisfaction you might derive from part-time work once you leave fulltime employment. There’s a point at which you should strive for growth and a point at which you should focus on conserving wealth—but those points will be different for each of us. My late mother had a decent-size portfolio. But during the final 15 months of her life, which spanned 2020-21, she required round-the-clock home health aides at a cost of $220,000 a year. We had no idea how long those expenses would go on. Mom, to her credit, had never before touched her portfolio. But during that 15-month stretch, I was forced to sell some investments at inopportune times on her behalf. Her end-of-life health care costs were a wakeup call for me. If you’re far short of a multi-million-dollar portfolio, like I am, you may have little choice but to continue living on a tight budget for the remainder of your working years, while also investing mostly in stocks. I know some say I should start traveling more now, while I have my health and can still get around. But I’m not earmarking a lot of money for overseas adventures. Maybe I’ll do one trip every three years or so. That’s despite the fact that, with my hip in need of possible replacement, I can imagine a future where strolling through the old town of a foreign capital will be painful. But at the same time, I also see the news of people dying who weren’t much older than I am now. My caution today is the price I pay for ruining my finances in my 40s, when I devastated my portfolio by making risky investments using margin debt. I don’t get the three-week Europe jaunt, at least not yet. I could probably spend more, but it isn’t my goal to die broke. If possible, I’d like to leave an inheritance to my two children. In the meantime, I still need growth. I’m 62, and I hope and plan to work for another five years or so. I may be able to work even longer, if that proves necessary. My profession—writing and editing—lends itself to part-time work in retirement, even with my arthritic joints. There are ways to get more conservative while investing for growth. I have about 72% of my portfolio in stocks and stock funds, though I’m planning to reduce that by one or two percentage points a year. That would still leave me with more than 60% in stocks at my planned retirement age, which is perhaps somewhat aggressive. I wrote earlier about how I’m increasingly limiting risk in my bond-market money. Within my stock holdings, I’m also trying to reduce risk, but that’s easier said than done. I’m diversified across U.S. and foreign stocks. I also have a little extra in energy and defense stocks as a hedge against events that could drive the broad market lower. I’m intentionally minimizing exposure to China, as I’ve written here and here. Partly as a result, I’m light on emerging markets. In addition, I lean toward a value investing style, especially small-cap value. I consider limiting exposure to high-priced mega-cap tech stocks—which today dominate the S&P 500-stock index—as a way to reduce risk. Indeed, true market-capitalization-weighted index funds only account for half of my portfolio. Unfortunately, other investors seem to be seeing more risk in small-cap value right now than in technology, partly due to fears about a recession and the banking sector. But I’m sticking to my value tilt. Still, there are risks in waiting for value to return to favor and deliver a multi-year period of outperformance. Investment styles can lag badly for many years, as value has, and my plan is to gradually move closer to complete market-cap indexing as I get older. Moreover, value stocks aren’t immune to market collapses. Sometimes, they don’t hold up much better than growth stocks, if at all. My approach paid off in 2020-22, a big improvement over my previous track record. My losses were well-contained last year. But with growth taking off again this year and value far behind, I’m fearful I’ll miss the boat again by not fully indexing. Maybe I’m living my own variation of Daniel Kahneman’s Prospect Theory, which states that we hate losses twice as much as we love gains. I’d rather lag the market on the upside than be fully exposed to today’s glamour stocks and the danger that there’s a bubble about to burst. Telling myself “I told you so” would be unbearable. William Ehart is a journalist in the Washington, D.C., area. In his spare time, he enjoys writing for beginning and intermediate investors on why they should invest and how simple it can be, despite all the financial noise. Follow Bill on Twitter @BillEhart and check out his earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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Mild Salsa

BALANCED FUNDS ARE a great first investment for those with a moderate risk tolerance. But which fund? Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Admiral Shares, with its incredibly low 0.07% expense ratio, $3,000 investment minimum and mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, is the standard by which all balanced funds should be judged—and it’s likely your best choice. But if it isn’t one of your 401(k) options, chances are you’ll find the plan includes one or more of the other five funds in the accompanying chart. They’re the largest and arguably the most successful balanced funds and, together with Vanguard Balanced Index Fund, are among the 10 biggest in the 401(k) market. They’re also good choices. These longstanding brand names don’t have the buzz of bitcoin or smart beta ETFs. But they continue to deliver generally consistent, solid results. Their average age is 62 years. Through many management changes and many market crises, their parent companies have kept them largely on track. Most balanced funds are actively managed. That means that, since the Vanguard index fund’s inception in 1992, they have tried to beat it, rather than match it—a difficult feat, but one that two of the five actively managed funds in the chart have accomplished over the past 15 years, while the other three weren't far behind. These were also the five largest balanced funds 15 years ago—and they’ve lived up to their reputations. Each has its own distinctive appeal. Whereas Vanguard Balanced Index Fund offers exposure to the entire U.S. stock market and only investment-grade bonds, some of the active funds have juiced returns with lower-quality bonds, including junk bonds. Fidelity Puritan currently has the lowest-quality bond rating of the group, at the last rung of investment grade, according to Morningstar. The index fund’s top-quality bonds will hold up better in bad times. The higher expense ratios of the active funds can incentivize them to increase risk, with an eye to boosting returns and thereby overcoming the drag from their higher annual expenses. Most of the actively managed balanced funds have more of a large-company investment focus than the index fund does. Some use a growth style, others value and some have significant foreign exposure, which has detracted from returns over the past 15 years. Undoubtedly, each has had ups and downs of its own making. Dodge & Cox Balanced stumbled badly during the financial crisis, thanks to its heavy stake in financial stocks. And portfolio manager changes are a source of uncertainty. In fact, Fidelity Puritan recently lost its lead fund manager and, next year, Vanguard Wellington will lose one of its lead managers, both because of retirement. Morningstar has cut its rating of Puritan to neutral, pending evaluation of new management, but has expressed more confidence in Wellington’s remaining team. With all that, there’s a lot to recommend all six funds. Here are five reasons to consider buying a balanced fund: The 60% stock-40% bond split, which is what these funds typically maintain, is ideal for moderate risk investors. It’s like mild salsa. In fact, it’s the industry standard for moderation: mostly stocks, to tap into the potential growth we need, but a hefty slug of bonds to limit volatility. Most investors below their 50s are advised to go heavier on stocks. But it’s also crucial to stay within your risk tolerance. That’s especially true for less-experienced investors. While target-date retirement funds are also great choices for set-it-and-forget-it investors, they’re a different animal. The allocation to stocks declines over time, plus they often have substantial foreign exposure. With a balanced fund, you have a better idea of what you’re getting. Even the best advice—about low-cost indexing, broad diversification, astute asset allocation, periodic rebalancing—can be a blur for beginning investors. The great investment books sometimes contradict each other on crucial issues, such as how much to invest overseas. As in other areas of our lives, we shouldn’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good. A lot of people have made a lot of money in balanced funds without knowing anything about asset class correlations or the price of shares in China. Your 401(k) choices may be limited—but there’s a good chance one of these funds is in there. The American Balanced Fund, normally available only through financial advisors for a heavy cost, may be available without a commission in your 401(k). I think of my mother, sitting in funds like Vanguard Wellington and American Balanced, and reinvesting her dividends and capital gains for decades. Her financial advisor was happy with such a low-maintenance client. What did Mom know about investing? Not much, except to buy and hold her balanced funds. Mom slept soundly, while I tossed and turned, worrying about whether my asset allocation was the right one. William Ehart is a journalist in the Washington, D.C., area. Bill's previous articles include Weight Problem, Not My Guru and China Syndrome. In his spare time, he enjoys writing for beginning and intermediate investors on why they should invest and how simple it can be, despite all the financial noise. Follow Bill on Twitter @BillEhart. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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Needing to Know

YEARS AGO, WHEN THE kids were teenagers, single Dad here was cooking dinner. You guessed it, hot dogs. I skillfully picked one up from the hot pan with my fingers and tossed it in a bun. When my daughter began to imitate me, I nearly shrieked. She lacked my years of experience in gauging exactly how hot the sides of the dog would be, how far from the splattering grease I needed to position my fingers, how many milliseconds I had to release the dog into the waiting bun. But something else was behind my horror and sense of guilt. It wasn’t just that my hands already had been cut and smashed and scalded many a time and that I wanted better for my little girl’s precious fingers. Rather, it’s that we make decisions differently when loved ones are involved. By ourselves, we may jaywalk, drive aggressively and invest with borrowed money. I’m guilty on all counts. We are willing to take greater risks for ourselves than for our children. The hot dog incident came to mind as I helped my daughter with her Roth IRA. I was recommending a 2060 target-date fund comprised of index funds, but thought about mixing it up a bit. How about a modest small-cap value stake, like Daddy has? That would reduce her exposure to the foreign stocks I’m skeptical of and to the runaway mega-cap tech stocks that scare me, both heavily represented in the target-date fund. But in my effort to guide her financial future, I fell into old, bad habits of thought. I was tempted to act like a know-it-all. Since I wanted to protect her, I had to know what small caps would do next, didn’t I? I wanted to trot out the charts, look at the moving averages, gauge the distance from the 52-week highs and lows. Are the small-cap value exchange-traded funds (ETFs) still red hot as they rebound from the March lows—or have they pulled back for a better buying opportunity? Are they the worst possible investment ahead of a potential pandemic-induced depression? I felt all the destructive emotions, the angst of uncertainty, the fear of being wrong and the lust for the illusion of control. It was all nonsense. Experience teaches us that we can succeed as investors—in fact, we must proceed as investors—without knowing how things will turn out. The more we realize we don’t know, the more prudent and balanced our decisions are likely to be. What did I need to know to recommend small caps to her? I needed to know not the 50-day moving average, but the 40-year body of research showing that shares of undervalued, lesser-known companies have been the best investments over the long term and should continue to be. I needed to know, as I do from my own experience with multiple bear markets, that a slug of small-cap value could position her for big gains when the overly popular large-cap growth stocks—which today dominate the major market indexes—inevitably fall to earth. But rather than just encouraging her to buy the ETF on my say-so, which she did, I should have explained the rationale more fully to her. Daddy’s little girl has to “grow up” in her investing experience someday. That means getting her fingers burned, her heart broken, and finding out whether she can watch an investment plunge 50% and stick with it. She needs to know that’s likely to happen several times in her investing career. She needs to know that risk is the price we pay for the chance at a 2,000%-plus return over 40 years. She needs to know that it’s a mistake to sell when the market breaks because such a move is almost certainly driven by fear—the fear that keeps us out of the market until after it rebounds and starts hitting new highs, as the U.S. market has always done. She’s old enough for “the talk,” even though my talk will be far more boring than the one her mother gave her as a teenager. Maybe I’ll just have her read this. William Ehart is a journalist in the Washington, D.C., area. Bill's previous articles include Played for Fools, Right from Wrong and Red Flags. In his spare time, he enjoys writing for beginning and intermediate investors on why they should invest and how simple it can be, despite all the financial noise. Follow Bill on Twitter @BillEhart. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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Cheapskates Win

NEW MORNINGSTAR research on bond funds echoes what the late Jack Bogle preached—and proved—for decades: Costs are the greatest predictor of fund performance, not stock or bond selection prowess. In investing, you get what you don’t pay for, said Bogle, Vanguard Group’s founder and creator of the first index mutual fund. There’s a school of thought that claims it’s easier for active bond fund managers to beat their indexes than it is for their stock fund colleagues. Whether that’s true or not, the fact remains that funds with lower expense ratios outperform more expensive ones, and they do so with less volatility. Those are the findings of Morningstar’s Chief Ratings Officer, Jeffrey Ptak, relayed in a recent column titled, “Why Pay Up for Bond Funds?” “Costlier bond funds not only return less than cheaper funds, on average, but they’re more volatile,” Ptak wrote. “That’s not a coincidence. For even among funds of the same type, pricier offerings are more likely to take on higher risk to clear the higher fee hurdles they face.” Upon reading that, my thoughts turned to today’s “bond king,” Jeff Gundlach. Several years ago, I considered investing in his flagship DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund (symbol: DLTNX), but I was dissuaded by the fund’s high expense ratio, which today is 0.73%. Especially when bond yields in the 2010s were so low, I couldn’t justify paying that much for fixed-income exposure. It’s also important to consider the purpose of fixed-income holdings in your portfolio. Since I’m still working and have a high percentage of my investments in stocks, I view Treasurys as the best way to hedge that risk. I use Treasury bond index funds as opposed to alternatives such as the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund’s Admiral Shares (VBTLX). Vanguard’s Total Bond fund tracks an index that includes all types of investment-grade bonds, with roughly half in Treasurys, but with corporates and securitized bonds also owned. Gundlach and his team, by contrast, invest the vast majority of their fund’s assets in securitized mortgage bonds. That presents a different risk profile but offers a higher yield. [xyz-ihs snippet="Mobile-Subscribe"] DoubleLine Total Return sports a trailing 12-month yield of 3.66%, according to Morningstar, versus just 2.66% for Vanguard’s Total Bond Market fund. Its yield advantage is even greater over my short-term Treasury fund. Yet I don’t need yield right now, nor do I need the higher interest-rate risk of these other funds. Despite vastly higher costs, Gundlach’s fund has destroyed the index fund since the former’s inception just over 13 years ago. DoubleLine Total Return has returned 3.5% per year, versus 2.2% for Vanguard Total Bond. Yet all that outperformance was concentrated in the DoubleLine fund’s early years, before it attracted most of its current $34 billion in assets. Over the 10 years ended May 31, DoubleLine Total Return, with an annual gain of 1.2%, has lagged behind Vanguard Total Bond’s 1.4% annual return. Paying DoubleLine nearly three-quarters of a percentage point every year cost investors money over the past decade. Vanguard Total Bond’s expense ratio is just 0.05%. Unlike most of the high-cost funds in the recent Morningstar study, the DoubleLine fund exhibited less volatility than the bond index fund. The DoubleLine fund fell just over 16% in the recent bond bear market, versus nearly 18% for Vanguard’s bond index fund. That’s good, yet hardly enough to let investors sleep more soundly—or to justify the higher costs. And most active bond fund managers can’t match Gundlach’s record. The bottom line: I’d think twice before investing in any high-cost fund. Management skill rarely compensates investors. The only certainty is that high fees handsomely compensate management. William Ehart is a journalist in the Washington, D.C., area. In his spare time, he enjoys writing for beginning and intermediate investors on why they should invest and how simple it can be, despite all the financial noise. Follow Bill on Twitter @BillEhart and check out his earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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How It Happens

THERE’S A SCENE in Three Days of the Condor, that very ’70s, America-in-decline movie, where the CIA is the bad guy and Robert Redford’s character is in danger of imminent extinction. Max von Sydow’s character Joubert—the Alsatian assassin—warns him that he has “not much future.” Then he calmly describes how the CIA will come for him. “It will happen this way,” Joubert says. “You may be walking. Maybe the first sunny day of the spring. And a car will slow beside you, and a door will open, and someone you know, maybe even trust, will get out of the car. And he will smile, a becoming smile. But he will leave open the door of the car and offer to give you a lift.” Let me paraphrase Joubert and tell you from experience how Mr. Market will occasionally come for you and try to kill your financial future. First, the market will fall far enough that investors start to be concerned. Not you necessarily, but some chatter begins. Worries are expressed. Theories are floated explaining why the market is down, and going to fall further.   Today, that might be the inflation narrative. Both stocks and bonds are down in 2022. At one point in January, the S&P 500 was off 10% from its high. But you know that happens to stocks every other year, on average. You buy the dip. Less frequently, the market will fall 15%. Now those predictions of big trouble get louder and more convincing. Still, you’ve seen this before. You buy more. Like Redford’s character—codenamed Condor—you’re still one step ahead. But once in a while, the market will drop 20%, then 30%. And at least once in your investment career, the bottom will seem to fall out. In mine, I’ve lived through: 2000-02, when the shares in the S&P 500 fell 49%. The index is now more than 700% higher, including dividends. 2007-09, down 57%. It’s again more than 700% higher. February-March 2020, down 34%. It’s now 100% higher. The further the market falls, the more prescient the doomsayers look. What are they saying now? That your past gains were based on easy money. It’s all a house of cards. America was living on borrowed money and borrowed time. Twenty-five-year-old crypto billionaires? Meme stock millionaires? You should have seen our comeuppance coming. [xyz-ihs snippet="Mobile-Subscribe"]  Hedge fund billionaire and author Ray Dalio contributes a doomsday scenario: America could collapse within 10 years because of populism, inflation and war. This time, the market won’t recover. Maybe those close to you start sounding the alarm, too. How will we ever retire? You feel like you better get this right. You may be ready to accept a ride from a friendly face and drive away from trouble. Maybe you’ll listen to a friend who sold everything when the news turned scary. Why didn’t you? Or perhaps a familiar Wall Street strategist or TV commentator will suggest bailing out. Or a legendary hedge fund manager in the high-brow financial press. They’ll say you can sidestep further declines, that buy-and-hold is dead. They’ll say you need to be in Chinese shares, gold, commodities—all the usual suspects. Maybe crypto is the future after all. Your own ego begins to convince you that you can call the next move. Stocks are obviously headed lower. It’s time to sell, to get a ride out of Dodge, even if just for a little while. This is exactly where Mr. Market wants you. Everything you think you know about what’s coming next was planted in your head: It took root because it seemed to explain the recent past. This is how Mr. Market, with all his multiple personalities at cross-purposes, weeds out the weak and the wrongfooted. Yes, Mr. Market can be your best friend, compounding your wealth over decades. But he’s also a remorseless assassin, occasionally—inevitably—destroying fortunes large and small, destroying the financial futures of the greedy and the innocent alike. But just like Three Days of the Condor, this is a movie we’ve seen before. The lessons of market history: Betting on a worst-case scenario is a bad bet. The market has always come back. Don’t risk selling near the lows, the point of maximum fear. In all likelihood, you will suffer a permanent loss of capital as you miss the rebound because the market is never going to seem safe until a new bull market is well underway. Then you may hear Joubert’s words: “You were quite good, Condor, until this. This move was predictable.” William Ehart is a journalist in the Washington, D.C., area. In his spare time, he enjoys writing for beginning and intermediate investors on why they should invest and how simple it can be, despite all the financial noise. Follow Bill on Twitter @BillEhart and check out his earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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No A for Effort

LESS IS MORE when it comes to investing. Less effort. Fewer transactions. Lower costs. Less worry. Lower taxes. Less ego. Less clickbait. We’re wired to try hard. To do well. Especially if you’ve had some success in your life, and built up some money to invest, you probably got there by working harder than others. Problem is, the same rule doesn’t apply to investing. There is no A for effort. But there is an F for frenetic. The good news is, there’s a simple way. You can grow wealth by matching the market—with index funds—instead of vainly trying to beat it. Broadly diversified low-cost balanced, asset allocation and target-date funds also can be good choices. It’s the pursuit of market-beating funds that can do us in, since past outperformance does not predict future outperformance. What will you do when yesterday’s top fund manager lags the market for the ensuing two or three years? Will you agonize, switch to the next hot fund, rinse and repeat? Just matching the market can be plenty lucrative. While we’re working, most of us will have the opportunity to invest regularly and let our money compound over several decades. Let’s assume you had done just that over the past 30 years. You made an initial $3,000 investment in a tax-deferred account on June 1, 1989, in the Vanguard 500 Index Fund. Then you added $400 a month through May 31, 2019. (In truth, you should try to invest more. This is just an eminently doable example, especially if you have a 401(k) with a company match.) According to PortfolioVisualizer.com, your money would have compounded at about 9% a year, in line with the historical average for U.S. stocks. Boring you say? What would you say to $717,000? I thought so. There’s no guarantee that your investments will compound at 9% annually for the next 30 years. But that is close to the long-term average for U.S. stocks. And what effort does capturing the long-term profit and dividend growth of the overall U.S. market require? Mostly, it requires prodigious patience and faith in the enduring strength of the American economy. Ignoring the naysayers and the doomsayers. Tuning out the siren songs of self-promotional investment gurus. Finally, it requires the realization that, to get the market’s returns, you have to be in the market. You won’t make money investing when things seem good and getting out when you’re worried. What is not required for this approach? Daily or up-to-the-minute portfolio monitoring. Expensive financial advisors or newsletter authors who say they can beat the market. Mornings, evenings and even work hours glued to CNBC. Saturdays spent with Barron’s and its lionized fund managers and forecasters. Umpteen magazines, blogs and websites trumpeting the stocks and funds to buy and sell now. (Best ETFs for Brexit! and Top funds for uncertainty! are among my favorites.) Good advice isn’t clickbait. Fewer clicks can result in higher returns and greater peace of mind. William Ehart is a journalist in the Washington, D.C., area. Bill's previous article for HumbleDollar was Father Knew Best. In his spare time, he enjoys writing for beginning and intermediate investors on why they should invest and how simple it can be, despite all the financial noise. Follow Bill on Twitter @BillEhart. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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