Our Chosen Road
Kenyon Sayler | Apr 12, 2022
CONSUMER REPORTS and other authorities will tell you that you get the greatest value for your car-buying dollar by purchasing a two- or three-year-old vehicle. They also often recommend selling your current car after you’ve owned it for about seven years. We favor a different strategy—one that suits our family but certainly isn’t for everybody. My wife’s No. 1 priority is that her vehicle be reliable. She insists that every time she gets in the car, it starts and delivers her to where she needs to be, with no worries along the way. To maximize the chances of that happening, we buy her a new car every eight to 10 years. She gets to drive a car largely under the manufacturer’s warranty, plus today’s cars are very reliable over their first decade. I then get her old car, and continue to drive it until some major mechanical problem crops up or the body rusts such that it’s no longer structurally safe. Once one of those things happen, she gets a new car and I once again take over her old car. This system certainly isn’t for everybody. The second driver of the car ends up with a car that’s eight to 20 years old. The final few years can be rough. The driver of the older vehicle better view a car as transportation only—because some of the amenities will stop working and won’t be worth replacing. If my wife’s heated seats stop functioning, we’ll get them fixed. If they stop working in year 10 or 12, they’re liable to stay not working. The second person also has to be willing to live with the occasional minor malfunction, like the fuel pump failing or a radiator hose bursting. I can almost guarantee that these things will happen on a dark road…
Read more » Sleeping Well
Kenyon Sayler | Oct 10, 2021
ONE OF MY DREAMS for retirement was to take four months and hike the Continental Divide Trail. It runs along the backbone of our country, from the Mexican border to the Canadian border. It’s 3,028 miles of beautiful scenery. Alas, my wonderful wife worries about me hiking alone for months. What if I got hurt? What if I got sick? Our son uses a satellite phone on his treks to keep us up-to-date on his location. I reason that I’d be safe using a satellite phone as well. She isn’t buying that argument. Simply put, my wife can’t sleep well at night, not knowing how I’m doing. Which got us to our current compromise. She lets me go on longer hikes with a guide. That way, if I get hurt or sick, there’s somebody to make sure I get the care and attention I need. We first tried this compromise in 2018, when I joined a group walking the West Highland Way in Scotland. And, to be honest, I really enjoyed it. Instead of sleeping in a tent every night, we walked from guesthouse to guesthouse. Our baggage was ferried between our lodgings. I slept in a real bed every night. I ate a hot pub meal every evening. It really was the best of all worlds. I enjoyed it so much that I recently hiked the Coast to Coast Walk in England. It’s 192-miles long and passes through three national parks. Apart from the wonderful scenery, the camaraderie, the beds and pub grub, I enjoyed disconnecting from “the real world” for two weeks. No Wall Street Journal. No closing bell update. Not caring what the Fed is signaling. I’m able to unplug because I’ve heeded Warren Buffett’s advice to “only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold…
Read more » Showing an Interest
Kenyon Sayler | Mar 30, 2022
WHILE VISITING MY mother, I walked along my old paper route. It made me wonder: Which customer am I? It helps to have a little background on these long-ago entrepreneurs. Paper carriers were independent contractors with the local newspaper. We were given a territory—the route. We purchased the papers from the newspaper company and then delivered them to our customers. Every other week, we would also go around to our customers and ask for payment for the preceding two weeks. When they paid us, we gave them a tiny, preprinted receipt. Of my 60 customers, I remember only two clearly. Neither was really a bad customer, but I remember the two extremes—my favorite customer and the one that caused me headaches. Mrs. Kramer was my favorite customer. She was almost always home when I was collecting money. She usually rounded up her bill by a quarter or 30 cents. If she was going out of town for a few days, she would pay two weeks ahead. When I next collected after her return home, we’d settle up the difference for the days she was gone. Mrs. Kramer always asked how I was doing in school or Scouts. On winter days, she would offer me hot cocoa. I never took her up on the offer, but it was nice knowing she was thinking about me. In December, she usually gave me a tip of $2 or $3. My least favorite customer was the doctor. The doctor’s family was seldom at home. I often extended them credit for eight or even 12 weeks of newspapers. Even as I waited to collect from the doctor, I was paying the newspaper company. When I was able to collect, we settled up for the exact amount due. In December, the doctor would usually give me…
Read more » Failure Is an Option
Kenyon Sayler | Oct 5, 2022
I RECENTLY LISTENED to author JL Collins on the Bogleheads Live podcast. Collins mentioned several times that stock declines never last. He isn’t alone in this assertion. You can read any number of books or articles that talk about the need to remain invested during stock market downturns because the market always recovers. Perhaps it’s my training as an engineer. We’re taught to think about failure rates and probabilities of failure—which brings me to an uncomfortable notion: Just because the U.S. stock market hasn’t yet failed to recover doesn’t mean it’ll always recover. There are cases where the entire stock market has disappeared. Think Russia in 1918, Romania and Czechoslovakia in 1948, or Cuba in 1960. It can also take a very long time for the stock market to recover—so long that many investors would give up or die before recouping their losses. It took the Taiwan stock market 17 years to return to its 2000 peak and the U.S. market 25 years to regain its 1929 peak. Meanwhile, the Japanese stock market hasn’t yet returned to its year-end 1989 all-time high. That’s 33 years and counting. To be sure, if stock investors reinvest their dividends, they’d be made whole much sooner. Unfortunately, reinvesting dividends may not be possible for retirees living off their investments. Let me be clear: I’m not predicting wholesale confiscation, as happened in communist countries. I’m also not predicting a prolonged bear market. I personally remain significantly invested in global stock markets, with a heavy tilt toward the U.S. My only point is that market participants get rewarded for taking risk. There’s some small risk that a particular stock market will provide no price appreciation for decades—and perhaps even decline to zero.
Read more » Home Free
Kenyon Sayler | Jan 28, 2021
MY SON AND HIS fiancée recently purchased their first home. They’ve asked me about things like how to fix a leaky faucet, but they haven’t asked me for financial advice—which is a good thing, because I’ve had very limited experience buying houses. You see, my wife and I bought our first and only home in 1986. We paid $89,000, putting down $20,000 and taking out a $72,000 mortgage by the time we added in points, fees, taxes and the myriad other costs associated with a loan closing. Our interest rate was 8.5%. We knew that we wanted to pay off the house early, so we started making extra principal payments. We also refinanced our mortgage twice as rates dropped. The upshot: We paid off the mortgage in 11 years. But were we financially smart to do so? Remember, this was at the beginning of a long bull market. By paying the mortgage off early, we avoided some $88,000 in interest payments over what would have been the full life of the mortgage. That’s before factoring in the tax deduction for mortgage interest. If you figure that in, the savings might have been $65,000. Had we had taken the $231.32 per month in extra principal we were paying on our mortgage—equal to more than $30,000 over 11 years—and instead directed it into the S&P 500, that $30,000 would have grown to $75,000 over the course of those 11 years. Throw in perhaps another $8,000 in dividends, and our $30,000 would have been worth $83,000 before taxes, and the sum would have continued to grow from there. Or, to put it another way, the 8.5% interest rate we avoided, which was even less after our two refinancings, was well below the return we could have earned in the stock market. To be…
Read more » Buy What You Value
Kenyon Sayler | Mar 23, 2022
IN A RECENT BLOG post, I mentioned a coworker’s Lexus. One commenter—none other than fellow HumbleDollar contributor Dick Quinn—noted that, while “there is no logical reason” the coworker needed a Lexus, he might have motivations I didn’t know about. I didn’t mean to imply my coworker had made an imprudent choice. I spent my career working with engineers and scientists. As a group, we were well paid. We could afford pretty much anything we wanted—just not everything we wanted. I’ve had friends purchase $15,000 custom-made carbon bicycles, buy $1,000 bamboo flyfishing rods and spend thousands making a Christmas village that’s on display for two months a year. While I personally don’t value those items enough to spend that sort of money on them, my friends all earned enough that they could afford to do so. They enjoy their hobbies, and spend countless hours biking, fishing and modeling. While I tend toward frugality, there are two expenditures I make that some of my friends would not choose to make. The first was our family vacations. Every year, our entire family took a vacation. Some years, it was camping in our western national parks. Some years, it was going to a warm southern state in the middle of our long Minnesota winters. But every few years, it would be outside the continental U.S. Our children have accompanied us on trips to Alaska, Hawaii, Quebec, Ireland, France and Italy. While some friends would take their spouse or partner on an overseas trip, a few expressed surprise that we’d take our children, especially when they were younger. These friends would tell me that the kids wouldn’t appreciate the experience or that they’d never remember the trip. I don’t buy those arguments. But even if they’re true, it wouldn’t matter. I worked with my colleagues…
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