Needing to Know
William Ehart | Jul 31, 2020
YEARS AGO, WHEN THE kids were teenagers, single Dad here was cooking dinner. You guessed it, hot dogs. I skillfully picked one up from the hot pan with my fingers and tossed it in a bun. When my daughter began to imitate me, I nearly shrieked. She lacked my years of experience in gauging exactly how hot the sides of the dog would be, how far from the splattering grease I needed to position my fingers, how many milliseconds I had to release the dog into the waiting bun. But something else was behind my horror and sense of guilt. It wasn’t just that my hands already had been cut and smashed and scalded many a time and that I wanted better for my little girl’s precious fingers. Rather, it’s that we make decisions differently when loved ones are involved. By ourselves, we may jaywalk, drive aggressively and invest with borrowed money. I’m guilty on all counts. We are willing to take greater risks for ourselves than for our children. The hot dog incident came to mind as I helped my daughter with her Roth IRA. I was recommending a 2060 target-date fund comprised of index funds, but thought about mixing it up a bit. How about a modest small-cap value stake, like Daddy has? That would reduce her exposure to the foreign stocks I’m skeptical of and to the runaway mega-cap tech stocks that scare me, both heavily represented in the target-date fund. But in my effort to guide her financial future, I fell into old, bad habits of thought. I was tempted to act like a know-it-all. Since I wanted to protect her, I had to know what small caps would do next, didn’t I? I wanted to trot out the charts, look at the moving averages, gauge…
Read more » Durn Furriners
William Ehart | Dec 12, 2019
A BURNING QUESTION has only gotten hotter as foreign stocks have lagged disastrously over the past dozen years: Should any of your stock market money be overseas? Most experts say “yes.” Vanguard Group, for one, recommends investors allocate 40% of their stock investments to foreign markets. In fact, some pundits have smugly derided what they call the “home bias” of those U.S. investors who avoid or underweight foreign stocks. Those stocks currently make up about 45% of world market capitalization. That smugness has waned considerably since 2007, as the S&P 500 Index has delivered a compound annual growth rate of 8%, versus 2% for MSCI’s Europe, Australasia and Far East (EAFE) index of developed country stocks. That’s a lot of opportunity cost. If emerging markets were included, the picture would look even worse. Vanguard Emerging Markets Index Fund is up a cumulative 10% over the past 12 years, compared with 29% for EAFE and 163% for the S&P 500. For this article and in the accompanying chart, I compare the S&P 500 and EAFE. The latter index goes back to 1970. By contrast, emerging markets indexes are relatively new, so it’s hard to do long-term comparisons. The data in the chart suggests investors can’t expect a “free lunch” by diversifying into foreign stocks. That phrase was used by Harry Markowitz, who introduced Modern Portfolio Theory in 1952. According to MPT, combining assets with similar long-term return potential but low correlations can boost portfolio returns while reducing volatility. Trouble is, foreign stocks have offered neither low correlations nor comparable returns for 12 years—and they didn’t in the 1990s, either. The only sustained period of foreign outperformance since 1989 was in 2002-07. Since the EAFE index’s inception in 1970, the S&P 500’s cumulative return has been double that of EAFE. But don’t…
Read more » Different This Time
William Ehart | Mar 25, 2020
I’M DETERMINED NOT to repeat my mistakes of 2008-09. I was ruined by that financial crisis or, more accurately, I let it ruin me. I led into it with my chin. I’ll spare you the details of my personal situation in the years leading up to the crash, but the upshot is I was egotistical, financially reckless and looking for a big score. As the crisis unfolded, I piled risk upon risk, mistake upon mistake. I bought 2008 all the way down, loading up on many of the beaten-down financial names: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and even Lehman Brothers. Unfortunately, I purchased Goldman and Morgan Stanley with borrowed money, using my margin account. I had been using such leverage for years—within prudent limits, I thought. I calculated potential downsides but, of course, it was the potential gains that seized my imagination. The hard lesson for me? It wasn’t that margin investors can be forced to sell stocks in bear markets, particularly the worst and most sudden ones, leaving them no means to buy back in. I knew that. What I didn’t know is that brokerage firms can decide overnight that some securities are no longer marginable and hence they don’t count as collateral. E*Trade said I couldn’t borrow against my Goldman and Morgan Stanley shares anymore. I was forced to sell. Probably less than two months before the low. Then I was laid off at the end of 2009 and missed about a year of potential 401(k) contributions as the market recovered. I entered 2020 much poorer for my folly. But I have no debt today. The car is paid off and has many miles left on it. My big risk is getting laid off again—unfortunately, a real possibility, as it is for so many. But unlike 2008, I’m not picking…
Read more » Don’t Sweat It
William Ehart | Aug 11, 2022
BEING MECHANICAL and unemotional is a poor way to live life. But when investing, it just might make you richer. Through this year’s stock market turbulence, I’ve been even keeled. My reaction to the plunging bond market has been more agitated, as I wrote about here and here. The fact is, while I’m convinced the stock market will rebound, I don’t have the same belief in bonds. Armed with my faith in stocks, I’ve adopted a mechanical approach to investing, primarily using stock index funds. No more trying to outsmart the next guy. I don’t have to time everything exactly right or worry about where shares will bottom. I have an allocation target for stocks as a percent of my total portfolio, along with preset trigger points at which I intend to buy more during substantial market dips. Pretty much all I need to know during a downdraft is, how far is the market from its peak? Sure, I subscribe to The New York Times, Morningstar and even Barron’s. I take advantage of the office subscription to The Wall Street Journal. I’ve got a wicked FinTwit feed of great financial journalists and pundits. And, of course, I read HumbleDollar. Still, as I make stock market decisions, it’s amazing all the things I don’t have to read. By avoiding overconsumption of financial news and advice, I keep my emotions in check and insulate myself from the temptation to put too much stock in predictions that seem persuasive in the moment. I don’t need to know how long bear markets have lasted historically, or their average decline, though I’m grateful to those who produce such information. I also don’t need to know what the market expects from future Federal Reserve interest rate moves. I don’t even need to know whether inflation has…
Read more » Wasted Journey?
William Ehart | Jan 14, 2022
WE OFTEN WRITE at HumbleDollar that saving and investing aren’t everything. Spending money on the right things—such as fulfilling experiences—can also be a great investment, especially if the dollars bring ample happiness. Nearly seven years ago, I thought I’d wasted $4,000 on a foreign trip. But the law of unintended consequences has since worked in my favor. The 2015 trip was supposed to be an investment in my career. I thought I could make a difference in the world and become a freelance foreign correspondent. I failed. I couldn’t interest any major publication in a story. At least The Christian Science Monitor gave me the courtesy of a polite response. What was meant to be an investment became an expenditure that I never would have made at that time in my life, just for the sake of traveling. Yet I now properly view the money “spent” as an investment that will pay dividends to my son and me for the rest of our lives. We didn’t travel to a touristy locale. We went to Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, a post-Soviet republic where reformed-minded citizens had risen up successfully against an extravagantly corrupt pro-Russia leader in 2014. Our hotel overlooked the main site of the uprising. Ukraine was then—and still is—under siege by a jealous neighbor. All the talk now is of a potential large-scale Russian invasion. But the fact is, Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine immediately after the uprising, seizing Crimea and slipping troops and heavy equipment into parts of eastern Ukraine, ostensibly to support pro-Russia separatists. I have no family ties to that part of the world. But I was grandiose enough to think I could help rally public support for a free and independent Ukraine. I didn’t pretend to be a war correspondent, and have never been a…
Read more » Seeking Shelter
William Ehart | Jun 6, 2024
YOU'VE HEARD OF asset allocation. But how good are you at asset location? On that one, I’d have to give myself a failing grade, but I hope to pass the test someday. I’ve realized I could save myself hundreds of dollars a year in taxes by relocating much of my safe money to tax-advantaged accounts, while being more aggressive with stocks in my taxable account. Those moves would leave me with the same overall stock allocation, so my risk profile wouldn’t be much different. In some ways, I’m a cautious investor, especially when it comes to my emergency fund. I’ve got a hefty allocation to stocks—currently about 70%—but I’ve also got a year and a half of living expenses in individual Treasurys, a certificate of deposit (CD) and money market funds. I figure my fixed expenses are $5,000 a month, so that’s $90,000 in safe money sitting in my taxable account. With current short-term interest rates over 5%, my conservative stance is raking in some good bucks, but it’s too much safety and too much taxable income. One reason it’s so much: I’m trying to save up five years’ worth of portfolio withdrawals in bonds and cash by the time I retire. At that point, with Social Security benefits of more than $2,000 a month, I reckon I’ll need just $3,000 monthly from savings to maintain something like my current lifestyle. The cash cushion I’m accumulating will protect me from a prolonged bear market. Intuitively, you might think emergency funds don’t belong in retirement accounts, which experts say should be invested for long-term growth. After all, who wants to raid an IRA to pay bills before they retire? But the truth is, not all good investment advice is good for all people all the time. I’m over age 59½, so…
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- Looking to make charitable gifts? Because the standard deduction is now so high, fewer taxpayers are able to itemize deductions, and that can limit the tax benefit of donations. But there’s still a way to gain a tax benefit: If you have appreciated stocks in a taxable account, you can donate them to a donor-advised fund. That would allow you to sidestep the capital gains tax that would otherwise be due if you sold those stocks. Many donor-advised funds have no minimums, making this an easy choice, in my view.
- If you believe your estate will top the estate tax threshold (about $15 million per person at the federal level, but much lower in certain states), then I would be sure to use the annual exclusion (currently $19,000 per donor and per recipient) to make incremental gifts to your heirs. That's because this annual exclusion is in addition to the lifetime exclusion and doesn’t carry over from year to year.
Note that these gifts don't have to be made in cash if the recipients aren't yet in a position to receive them. As alternatives, you could make contributions to a 529 account or to a trust for their benefit, and these contributions would count toward the annual exclusion.Total portfolio approach?
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