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Dickie and his magic beans

"Just curious if anyone else here that started using GLP-1 meds has noticed a significant change in their sense of taste? We bought Starbucks French Roast k-cups for more years than I can remember, stocking up on several boxes at a time from Costco when there was a sale (~$0.50/pod). It was “OK”, but after starting on the aforementioned med, it just didn’t taste the same. After purchasing a new Keurig Supreme Plus machine with adjustable settings for temp and strength, I used an included coupon to purchase a small box of Gevalia Columbia pods. I noted a significant improvement in taste such that I can no longer stand my former favorite - extremely bitter tasting to me, regardless of the machine settings. Salt is another taste that seems to have elevated in sensation, especially if it’s “in/on the food”, rather than added by me at the table (which I use far less of now). Best to all."
- G W
Read more »

Jonathan’s Advice for 2026 Graduates

"11 more to come. All scheduled by Jonathan himself!"
- Bogdan Sheremeta
Read more »

Saving for Grandchildren

OUR FIRST GRANDCHILD recently arrived, which naturally has us thinking about the smartest ways to build a strong financial foundation for her future. In 2019, I wrote Take a Break, which outlined saving strategies on behalf of children. Since then, the landscape has changed with the introduction of Trump accounts and Roth-conversion pathways for 529 accounts.  Families have four tax-advantaged savings approaches on behalf of young children plus the Roth IRA option once the child has earned income – 529 education savings account, a Uniform Gift to Minor (UGM) custodial account, a Coverdell account, and the new Trump account. Each option offers a different mix of tax benefits, contribution requirements and withdrawal rules. 529 Accounts Pros
  • Tax-free growth when used for qualified education expenses
  • High gift-tax contribution limits: $19K per contributor per year (indexed)
  • New ability to convert up to $35K into a Roth IRA for the beneficiary
Cons
  • Relatively complex with penalties and taxes on non-qualified withdrawals
  • Limited, state-approved investment options
  • Risk of underutilization if the child does not pursue qualifying education
Caveats
  • Technology and AI could significantly reduce education’s cost structure in the future
  • Roth conversions are capped at $35K lifetime
  • The 529 must be open 15 years, and contributions must age 5 years before conversion
  • Conversions require the beneficiary to have earned income (i.e. they could Roth anyway)
  • Annual Roth contribution limits still apply (e.g., $7.5K in 2026), so completing the full $35K conversion would take five years
UGM Custodial Accounts Pros
  • Brokerage account where up to $2.7K of unearned income can be tax-free each year
  • High gift-tax contribution limits: $19K per contributor per year (indexed)
  • Broad investment flexibility — stocks, bonds, funds, etc.
  • Few restrictions on how funds may be used for the child’s benefit
  • Potential for low taxes on capital gains, but subject to marginal “kiddie tax” at parent’s rates until tax-independency or age 24 
Cons
  • Higher income or capital gains could trigger the kiddie tax at the parents’ marginal rate
  • Assets count as the child’s for financial-aid purposes
Caveats
  • Custodians have some ability to spend down the account for legitimate child expenses if the child is a wild-child in the later teen years
Coverdell Accounts Pros
  • Tax-free growth for qualified education expenses
  • More flexible investment choices than most 529 plans
Cons
  • Low contribution limit: $2K per year plus income limits restrict who can contribute
  • Essentially irrelevant today given the expanded options within 529 plans
Trump Accounts Pros
  • $1K government seed deposit for children born 2025–2028
  • Contribution limit of $5K per year in 2026, indexed to inflation
  • Parent employers may contribute up to $2.5K per year (also indexed)
  • Tax-deferred growth with Roth-conversion opportunities beginning at age 18
  • No earned-income requirement for Roth conversions 
  • Roth conversions are ideal in low-income years starting after age 18 once the child has transitioned to tax-independency of parents or at age 24 when “kiddie taxation” ends. Early tax independence could even be a combined Roth plus student financial-aid strategy
  • Potential to convert large account values over several years at relatively low tax rates (potentially marginal 10-12% tax-rates, but averaging less due to the standard deduction).
Cons
  • Investment options limited to low-cost indexed stock funds (not necessarily a drawback)
  • Penalty-free withdrawals must wait until age 59½, but the accounts could be advantageous even including penalties
  • Limited custodian control and intervention possibilities if the teen is a wild-child
Caveats
  • If Roth conversions are not undertaken during the child’s low-income years, a UGMA invested to capture long-term capital gains tax-rates may outperform a Trump Account taxed at ordinary income tax-rates
  • Watch this space as future adjustments or eligibility changes are possible
  In effect, the 529 is a two-decade college savings program having some complexity and withdrawal limitations; the UGM is a reasonably flexible, 18-30-year college or house downpayment savings program; and the Trump account is a somewhat inflexible, sixty-year retirement accelerator   Resulting Playbook Here is our family’s intended playbook for tax-advantaged accounts in the grandchild's name:
  • Parents’ retirement account fundings remain their top priority - 401K’s at a minimum up to the match, HSAs with their triple tax advantages, and Roths as long as eligible within income limits.
  • A Trump account has already been initiated to secure the free $1K government seed contribution – grows to potentially $2.6K at age 18 after penalties and taxes.
  • Limited 529 funding has also been initiated to start the 15-year clock for potential later Roth conversions. 
  • The family’s next priority is to fund the Trump account which starts at $5K later this year. Maximizing the Roth conversion opportunity will require ~$116K of contributions (at 3% inflation) over 18 years which we grandparents intend to help fund. I estimate the Roth converted Trump account could grow to ~$2 million of tax-free money at age 60 (6% growth) assuming early-age Roth conversions, and the Wall Street Journal projects as much as $3 million (link likely paywalled).
  • The subsequent priorities are to start UGM taxable account and 529 account contributions in parallel to perhaps initial levels of about $35K each. This may take our family some years depending upon available resources for contributions.
For the UGM account, a balance of $35K should capture a sizeable chunk of the annual $2.7K tax-free income limit by investing in high-yield income alternatives. For the 529 account, $35K aligns with the Roth conversion limit. On a personal note, we had extremely positive UGM outcomes with our children. We saved taxes for two decades, and each child used the ~$60K balance as down payments on their first house shortly after college. Due to the 529’s withdrawal rigidities and potential technology impacts, we are unlikely to fund the 529 to the max. 
  • We will skip Coverdells as the alternatives offer ample savings opportunity in the child’s name ($200K+). 
  • Depending upon spare resources available for gifting, we can always reassess future contributions. 
That’s our plan, and we’re sticking to it…. until something changes.    John Yeigh is an author, coach and youth sports advocate. His book “Win the Youth Sports Game” was published in 2021. John retired in 2017 from the oil industry, where he negotiated financial details for multi-billion-dollar international projects. Check out his earlier articles.  
Read more »

The reality of Social Security and Medicare- My real life experience.

"Exactly. And yet many people don’t feel that way and likely would be opposed tax increase to sustain it. I am convinced Americans simply do not make the connection between taxes and what they provide in a society of 340 million or that millions of us need more assistance than others."
- R Quinn
Read more »

First Place

"I’ve been blessed to see a lot of the world in my travels, but there is something about going back to the Smoky Mountains in the fall that always feels different. The air is cooler, the colors are deeper, and life seems to slow down just enough to remind me what peace feels like. It’s not just the scenery, although the mountains are hard to beat. It’s the feeling of returning to a place that settles my mind, quiets the noise, and reminds me of the simple things I love most. No matter where I’ve been, the Smokies in the fall always feel like coming home."
- Jeff Peck
Read more »

A Life You Build

"Grant thank you for sharing your story. 😊"
- Jeff Peck
Read more »

Retirement Toys

"We have a dirt track midget team. A 40' trailer and Freightliner M2 206 extended cab truck to pull it. The car will be in the PRI Show in Indy this Dec, then we'll go racing in Illinois and then the Chili Bowl Nationals in Tulsa in Jan. That's my fun. Not cheap, but I've been around dirt track open wheel racing most of my life. Chili Bowl Nationals | The Official Website for the Chili Bowl Nationals"
- Jeff Peck
Read more »

Living On Autopilot

"Here in the retirement village, we buy in bulk and just signed a new contract. It's about $700,000 a year for 929 units, which comes to about $60 a month per user. We get fiber-optic internet and cable TV with hundreds of channels for that price. We hired a consultant to negotiate with the cable companies (about $25K) and he got us a great deal, We even get a $170K rebate for signing up. Right at the moment, they're busy ripping the village up to install conduits for their fiber."
- Ormode
Read more »

Sundry Memories of Mom

"Moms are the best part of life. I sure miss mine. Enjoyed reading your article."
- Jeff Peck
Read more »

Starting Up

"Andrew, thanks for this and I look forward to the second chapter. I can identify, as I worked long hours for many years, and with a wife and 4 kids. I'm lucky they put up with it and hung in there with me."
- Andrew Forsythe
Read more »

Tax Foundation Podcast Episode on American Financial Literacy

"Or select your favorite platform: https://taxfoundation.org/podcast/all/america-financial-literacy/"
- Randy Dobkin
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Investing Fundamentals: A Simple Guide for Beginners

"Nick, Young or old there are many people who don’t have a clue. I’m helping a neighbor who is 67, and newly retired. He was on auto pilot with his company plan and his government pension. He is one of the fortunate few who will be OK."
- W.D. Housley
Read more »

Dickie and his magic beans

"Just curious if anyone else here that started using GLP-1 meds has noticed a significant change in their sense of taste? We bought Starbucks French Roast k-cups for more years than I can remember, stocking up on several boxes at a time from Costco when there was a sale (~$0.50/pod). It was “OK”, but after starting on the aforementioned med, it just didn’t taste the same. After purchasing a new Keurig Supreme Plus machine with adjustable settings for temp and strength, I used an included coupon to purchase a small box of Gevalia Columbia pods. I noted a significant improvement in taste such that I can no longer stand my former favorite - extremely bitter tasting to me, regardless of the machine settings. Salt is another taste that seems to have elevated in sensation, especially if it’s “in/on the food”, rather than added by me at the table (which I use far less of now). Best to all."
- G W
Read more »

Jonathan’s Advice for 2026 Graduates

"11 more to come. All scheduled by Jonathan himself!"
- Bogdan Sheremeta
Read more »

Saving for Grandchildren

OUR FIRST GRANDCHILD recently arrived, which naturally has us thinking about the smartest ways to build a strong financial foundation for her future. In 2019, I wrote Take a Break, which outlined saving strategies on behalf of children. Since then, the landscape has changed with the introduction of Trump accounts and Roth-conversion pathways for 529 accounts.  Families have four tax-advantaged savings approaches on behalf of young children plus the Roth IRA option once the child has earned income – 529 education savings account, a Uniform Gift to Minor (UGM) custodial account, a Coverdell account, and the new Trump account. Each option offers a different mix of tax benefits, contribution requirements and withdrawal rules. 529 Accounts Pros
  • Tax-free growth when used for qualified education expenses
  • High gift-tax contribution limits: $19K per contributor per year (indexed)
  • New ability to convert up to $35K into a Roth IRA for the beneficiary
Cons
  • Relatively complex with penalties and taxes on non-qualified withdrawals
  • Limited, state-approved investment options
  • Risk of underutilization if the child does not pursue qualifying education
Caveats
  • Technology and AI could significantly reduce education’s cost structure in the future
  • Roth conversions are capped at $35K lifetime
  • The 529 must be open 15 years, and contributions must age 5 years before conversion
  • Conversions require the beneficiary to have earned income (i.e. they could Roth anyway)
  • Annual Roth contribution limits still apply (e.g., $7.5K in 2026), so completing the full $35K conversion would take five years
UGM Custodial Accounts Pros
  • Brokerage account where up to $2.7K of unearned income can be tax-free each year
  • High gift-tax contribution limits: $19K per contributor per year (indexed)
  • Broad investment flexibility — stocks, bonds, funds, etc.
  • Few restrictions on how funds may be used for the child’s benefit
  • Potential for low taxes on capital gains, but subject to marginal “kiddie tax” at parent’s rates until tax-independency or age 24 
Cons
  • Higher income or capital gains could trigger the kiddie tax at the parents’ marginal rate
  • Assets count as the child’s for financial-aid purposes
Caveats
  • Custodians have some ability to spend down the account for legitimate child expenses if the child is a wild-child in the later teen years
Coverdell Accounts Pros
  • Tax-free growth for qualified education expenses
  • More flexible investment choices than most 529 plans
Cons
  • Low contribution limit: $2K per year plus income limits restrict who can contribute
  • Essentially irrelevant today given the expanded options within 529 plans
Trump Accounts Pros
  • $1K government seed deposit for children born 2025–2028
  • Contribution limit of $5K per year in 2026, indexed to inflation
  • Parent employers may contribute up to $2.5K per year (also indexed)
  • Tax-deferred growth with Roth-conversion opportunities beginning at age 18
  • No earned-income requirement for Roth conversions 
  • Roth conversions are ideal in low-income years starting after age 18 once the child has transitioned to tax-independency of parents or at age 24 when “kiddie taxation” ends. Early tax independence could even be a combined Roth plus student financial-aid strategy
  • Potential to convert large account values over several years at relatively low tax rates (potentially marginal 10-12% tax-rates, but averaging less due to the standard deduction).
Cons
  • Investment options limited to low-cost indexed stock funds (not necessarily a drawback)
  • Penalty-free withdrawals must wait until age 59½, but the accounts could be advantageous even including penalties
  • Limited custodian control and intervention possibilities if the teen is a wild-child
Caveats
  • If Roth conversions are not undertaken during the child’s low-income years, a UGMA invested to capture long-term capital gains tax-rates may outperform a Trump Account taxed at ordinary income tax-rates
  • Watch this space as future adjustments or eligibility changes are possible
  In effect, the 529 is a two-decade college savings program having some complexity and withdrawal limitations; the UGM is a reasonably flexible, 18-30-year college or house downpayment savings program; and the Trump account is a somewhat inflexible, sixty-year retirement accelerator   Resulting Playbook Here is our family’s intended playbook for tax-advantaged accounts in the grandchild's name:
  • Parents’ retirement account fundings remain their top priority - 401K’s at a minimum up to the match, HSAs with their triple tax advantages, and Roths as long as eligible within income limits.
  • A Trump account has already been initiated to secure the free $1K government seed contribution – grows to potentially $2.6K at age 18 after penalties and taxes.
  • Limited 529 funding has also been initiated to start the 15-year clock for potential later Roth conversions. 
  • The family’s next priority is to fund the Trump account which starts at $5K later this year. Maximizing the Roth conversion opportunity will require ~$116K of contributions (at 3% inflation) over 18 years which we grandparents intend to help fund. I estimate the Roth converted Trump account could grow to ~$2 million of tax-free money at age 60 (6% growth) assuming early-age Roth conversions, and the Wall Street Journal projects as much as $3 million (link likely paywalled).
  • The subsequent priorities are to start UGM taxable account and 529 account contributions in parallel to perhaps initial levels of about $35K each. This may take our family some years depending upon available resources for contributions.
For the UGM account, a balance of $35K should capture a sizeable chunk of the annual $2.7K tax-free income limit by investing in high-yield income alternatives. For the 529 account, $35K aligns with the Roth conversion limit. On a personal note, we had extremely positive UGM outcomes with our children. We saved taxes for two decades, and each child used the ~$60K balance as down payments on their first house shortly after college. Due to the 529’s withdrawal rigidities and potential technology impacts, we are unlikely to fund the 529 to the max. 
  • We will skip Coverdells as the alternatives offer ample savings opportunity in the child’s name ($200K+). 
  • Depending upon spare resources available for gifting, we can always reassess future contributions. 
That’s our plan, and we’re sticking to it…. until something changes.    John Yeigh is an author, coach and youth sports advocate. His book “Win the Youth Sports Game” was published in 2021. John retired in 2017 from the oil industry, where he negotiated financial details for multi-billion-dollar international projects. Check out his earlier articles.  
Read more »

The reality of Social Security and Medicare- My real life experience.

"Exactly. And yet many people don’t feel that way and likely would be opposed tax increase to sustain it. I am convinced Americans simply do not make the connection between taxes and what they provide in a society of 340 million or that millions of us need more assistance than others."
- R Quinn
Read more »

First Place

"I’ve been blessed to see a lot of the world in my travels, but there is something about going back to the Smoky Mountains in the fall that always feels different. The air is cooler, the colors are deeper, and life seems to slow down just enough to remind me what peace feels like. It’s not just the scenery, although the mountains are hard to beat. It’s the feeling of returning to a place that settles my mind, quiets the noise, and reminds me of the simple things I love most. No matter where I’ve been, the Smokies in the fall always feel like coming home."
- Jeff Peck
Read more »

A Life You Build

"Grant thank you for sharing your story. 😊"
- Jeff Peck
Read more »

Retirement Toys

"We have a dirt track midget team. A 40' trailer and Freightliner M2 206 extended cab truck to pull it. The car will be in the PRI Show in Indy this Dec, then we'll go racing in Illinois and then the Chili Bowl Nationals in Tulsa in Jan. That's my fun. Not cheap, but I've been around dirt track open wheel racing most of my life. Chili Bowl Nationals | The Official Website for the Chili Bowl Nationals"
- Jeff Peck
Read more »

Living On Autopilot

"Here in the retirement village, we buy in bulk and just signed a new contract. It's about $700,000 a year for 929 units, which comes to about $60 a month per user. We get fiber-optic internet and cable TV with hundreds of channels for that price. We hired a consultant to negotiate with the cable companies (about $25K) and he got us a great deal, We even get a $170K rebate for signing up. Right at the moment, they're busy ripping the village up to install conduits for their fiber."
- Ormode
Read more »

Sundry Memories of Mom

"Moms are the best part of life. I sure miss mine. Enjoyed reading your article."
- Jeff Peck
Read more »

Free Newsletter

Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 54: WE NEED to be great savers to amass enough for retirement. But we shouldn’t get so good at saving money that, once we’re financially successful, we can’t bring ourselves to spend.

humans

NO. 50: WE LIKE owning assets we can see and touch—but that doesn’t mean they’re good investments. Go back a few generations, and folks put great value on art, jewelry, fine furniture and land. But most tangible assets haven’t been good investments in recent decades. Homes are the exception, but they’re also a big, undiversified risk that come with high costs.

Truths

NO. 37: IF INFORMATION is publicly available, it’s hard to make money from it. As soon as news breaks—whether it’s economic or otherwise—investors trade on the information, so it’s almost instantly reflected in stock and bond prices. True, you could get an edge by better analyzing that public information than other investors. But how likely is that?

think

EXPECTATIONS. Investment losses are most distressing when they’re least expected. For instance, many investors expect their stock portfolios to fall occasionally by 20% or more. But they’d be horrified if their money-market mutual fund—which they consider a haven of safety—“broke the buck” and slipped 1% from the standard $1 share price to 99 cents.

Plan your estate

Manifesto

NO. 54: WE NEED to be great savers to amass enough for retirement. But we shouldn’t get so good at saving money that, once we’re financially successful, we can’t bring ourselves to spend.

Spotlight: Taxes

Tax Loss Harvesting

BEFORE THE YEAR ENDS, I wanted to cover a great concept – tax-loss harvesting. It’s a strategy to lower your tax liability by selling investments and repurchasing a similar one. The loss can be used to cancel out gains from other investments, which helps reduce the taxes you owe. Or you can use up to $3,000 of those losses each year to lower your taxable income if you don’t have any gains.
Here’s the key goal of the tax-loss harvesting strategy:
Swap assets into similar,

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Am I missing something? What happened to taxes?

As a result of reading HD, I have become fascinated with certified financial planner videos on YouTube, some are pretty good, others not so much.
Often one thing strikes me as ironic. Some presenters look more like they will be starting college in the fall, than experienced experts and none of them look anywhere near retirement age – maybe they will FIRE, but I digress.🤑
My real curiosity is when they show a spreadsheet to see if a hypothetical couple can afford to retire.

Read more »

JCX-21-25

The Joint Committee on Taxation today posted their analysis of proposed changes to the current tax code. The 400+ page document is long but certainly easier to read than the tax bill that posted yesterday 5/12/2025.
Nothing final here but I think it will give a flavor to what may be coming in 2026.
https://www.jct.gov/publications/2025/jcx-21-25/

Read more »

FAQs IRS added March 20, 2025 regarding Employee Retention Credit

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and a spike in unemployment federal tax law was modified and the Employee Retention Credit (ERC) was born. The ERC was a refundable tax credit for certain eligible businesses and tax-exempt organizations that had employees and were affected during the COVID-19 pandemic. The business, tax community and the Internal Revenue Service continue to deal with compliance aftermath of the ERC.
On March 20, 2025 the IRS updated their frequently asked questions about the employee retention credit in the section headed “Income tax and the ERC”.

Read more »

Quinn rants about taxes-but maybe not what you think. 

Like most Americans I pay taxes, income taxes both federal and state, sales taxes, property taxes and for fifty years, payroll taxes and I’m still, at age 81, paying income, sales and property taxes – plus assorted other miner taxes and fees on goods and services.
Like any normal person, I think it would be nice not to pay taxes and keep all my money. But unlike too many of the uninformed people ranting on social media these days,

Read more »

Missouri Eliminating Capital Gains Tax on Stocks

The Missouri legislature recently passed a wide-reaching tax bill that includes ending the capital gains tax. The House passed the legislation 102-41. Since it had previously been approved by the Senate, it now goes to Gov. Mike Kehoe.
Rep. George Hruza, R-St. Louis County said this is one of the best things the legislature could do for Missouri.
Now I’m not sure it really is the best thing the legislature could do in a state that is #5 in the country in “gun death rates,”

Read more »

Spotlight: Retzke

Using AI to create a robust investment plan

I’ve been dabbling in AI.  Began using precursor “Expert Systems” about 20 years ago, but the new apps are more generalized and interesting. I’m aware of the limitations and anyone who wants to use something like Gemini or ChatGPT should also be aware. They can (and do) generate false information with apparent confidence. This can deceive users. Such disinformation has been given the name "hallucination" or "confabulation" by AI experts. Interesting names for inaccuracy. However, using precise prompts seems to improve the response. I’ve been running tests on Gemini using a range of prompts to build an in-retirement portfolio. I call these "tests" because I have my answer to compare this AI expert to. My early explorations indicate this might be a useful tool to add to my other modelling methods such as Monte-Carlo simulations. I’m also exploring approaches to a more robust withdrawal strategy. All of this is to aid my younger spouse. If anyone is interested in Gemini's complete response, simply copy and paste my prompts into a query.  However, AI being what it is, I expect every response will be slightly different. Adding a few terms to the prompts does generate differing results. For example, I asked Gemini to: “Provide a model of an in-retirement portfolio. The portfolio is $1,500,000. Annual withdrawal is 5%. The portfolio is to have a duration of 25 years. Provide an optimal mix of stocks and cash or bonds. Stocks may include ETFs, individual stocks in the US and global. Minimize risk.” I used 5% withdrawal as a means to stress the response. I received a 1,000 word response. A statement of goals and assumptions (inflation, returns and withdrawal rate) were made. Then Gemini went on to provide an “Optimal Mix of Stocks, Bonds, and Cash (Risk-Minimized Focus)”, a “Detailed Asset Allocation”,…
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The Wages of Success

I worked and earned income from 1963 to 2022. I always saved a portion of my earnings. Some was “parked” in real estate, some in the stock market, some in bonds and some in a traditional savings account. Every dollar I saved represented many hours of true labor. Some was as a business owner, some as an engineer, some was “sweat equity” in my homes and RVs, and some labor was expended by maintaining a commercial property. I didn’t spend all of my income from “work”. I "parked" a portion of the proceeds from that work via investments so I could draw upon them in retirement. I concluded this would be "shadow working" while I was retired. Today, every dollar I pull from my retirement accounts represents wages for my past effort and work success. During my actual working life at least 10% of my hours were “banked” for the future. In essence the echoes of my many years of labor are reverberating today, in the present. My savings are working for me today, but every dollar represents a small amount of physical or mental labor I expended in the past. This perspective influenced how I invested. Each investment was as if I were asking myself “What company is worthy of my efforts”? Which companies would be better stewards and are aligned with my values? This was a personal approach to investing and I’m sure I left “profits” on the table; there were many companies I deemed to be unworthy, or which had unsavory businesses or business practices. As a business owner I made a decision each year about how much “profit” to leave in the company. I could invest it in my firm, or share with others via dividends, bonuses or profit sharing. I decided how much to invest…
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Commodities vs. Gold

“Which Is the Better Inflation Hedge? Both have some merit, but one is better than the other.” Over at Morningstar Amy Arnott posted a short article to answer the question. Here’s a part of her analysis: “As shown in the table below, commodities were more consistent as an inflation hedge. They outpaced inflation in all five of the periods shown, while gold fell behind in two of the five periods. Gold did excel during the two separate inflationary periods in the early and late 1970s….. It also posted strong gains during the more muted inflationary environment from September 2007 through July 2008……However, it fell behind in the late 1980s….. During the most recent inflationary spike from mid-2021 through March 2023, gold prices rose, but cumulative returns lagged the broader commodity index by about 13 percentage points.” She delves into the reasons for this and provides a look at some of the issues. Each of those who own the precious metal, its surrogate GLD (SPDR® Gold Shares) or own other commodities there is a reason. Disclaimer: I don’t old GLD, preferring the miners. I do own an energy ETF. These provide dividends and I hold them as a part of what I consider a balanced portfolio. Combined they are about 3.5% of my personal portfolio. Since April 16 GLD seems to have settled within a range, which is about 43% higher than it was a year ago
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Maximizing Lifetime Retirement Spending

I’ve always been interested in retirement account alternative withdrawal strategies. Different strategies provide different outcomes. Some support higher initial spending rates, others leave larger amounts for a legacy. There is a middle ground with higher initial rate, and modest remaining amount. RMD (Required Minimum Distribution) is an often discussed method of withdrawals from retirement accounts. There are others and Morningstar is publishing a series on nine different approaches. These range from simple to complex. “The best retirement withdrawal method depends on what’s most important to you.” The articles look at differing approaches with can support different withdrawal rates. Some prefer a higher initial rate, others prefer leaving a legacy. This is a summary of one of the articles. It is available on the website and I’ve included a link at the end of this port. The three methods in this article allowed for higher spending rates at the beginning of retirement, higher than the “base case” which has a 3.9% starting safe withdrawal rate. The purpose of this specific article was to see which methods could support the largest payout over a 30 year period. As usual, the methods provide a 90% certainty using the data. The methods have different withdrawal rates and leave different balances at the end of the 30-year period. Alternately, Morningstar also looks at strategies to maximize your legacy. The popular “4% Rule” approach Is based on historical stock and bond data from 1926 to 1976, emphasizing downturns in the 1930s and 1970s. Morningstar "used forward-looking return and volatility assumptions to test 1,000 hypothetical return patterns over a 30-year period.” Each strategy was tested to estimate the starting safe withdrawal rate that would have supported spending over 30 years with a 90% probability of success. There were three strategies which maximized lifetime spending. The portfolio began…
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A Harsh Truth, or a Contrarian View

In a recent Morningstar article, the author pointed out a few things. “It feels like the economy has gone through three cycles in the past six years. The future looks very messy and uncertain, yet there’s no shortage of pundits that claim to know what will happen tomorrow. But predicting the short-term direction of the economy has always been that way. …. The media and investors alike are subject to recency bias: the tendency to place more emphasis on recent news and events than on older circumstances. There has been no shortage of economic disruptions over the past six years. Since mid-2019, the global economy has endured a pandemic, multiple supply chain disruptions, a short bout of inflation, and geopolitical tensions. Through all of that, real US GDP grew at about 2.3 percentage points annualized between July 2019 and March 2025. It’s easy to get hung up on past problems and miss what’s important…. The US economy’s current situation has never looked better. Economic output, as measured by real GDP, currently sits near an all-time high. Real GDP broke $23 trillion in early 2024, and it is on pace to surpass $24 trillion in the next year. Inflation has cooled down to about 3% over the past 2.5 years, which is slightly lower than the long-run 3.5% average the US has experienced in the post-World War II era since January 1948. Employment figures also look great by historical standards. The unemployment rate has hovered around 4% over the 12 months through June 2025, or below the long-term average of 5.7% dating back to January 1948. Further, the US economy has continued to employ more and more people as it has grown. It employed nearly 160 million Americans (excluding volunteers, farmers, and those self-employed) at the end of June 2025—an all-time…
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May 2025 Moving Averages

As a calming influence, here’s the latest about moving averages. The S&P 500 closed May with a monthly gain of 6.2%, the largest since November 2023.   However, Morningstar published an article today "Has the Stock Market Reached Peak Optimism on Tariffs? - Strategists say equities have already priced in the good news on tariffs as the trade war grinds on." I’ll periodically post if I become aware of changes of merit. [Currently posting an update via comments at the end of the month]. As of today (June 3, 2025), SPX index 200-day simple moving average is 5787.75, with the most recent change of +2.51 (+0.04%) on June 2, 2025. Over the past year, SPX index 200-day SMA has increased by +1009.50 (+21.13%). SPX index 200-day SMA is now at all-time high. SMAs (Simple Moving Averages) for Vanguard’s Total Stock Market Index ETF, Vanguard FTSE All World Ex-US ETF and the iShares 7-10 year Treasury Bond ETF each indicate that one should be invested at this time. Recently, the 10- and 12-month simple moving averages for the S&P indicated “cash” but after three months this shifted to “be invested”.  I don’t use these as sell indicators because I see the moving averages as one of several barometers for investor sentiment.  They make it easier for me to comprehend some of the positions taken at the HD and other forums. I’m not making any kind of recommendation.  As usual this is “Caveat Emptor”. Readers should be aware that I don’t jump in and out of the markets and I keep busy with other things so as to avoid the daily noise. I suggest we each consider our investing approach and tolerances. I’m a “buy and hold” investor of ETFs and individual stocks.  I judge the merit of individual stocks by the products and management of the companies involved.  I…
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