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Four Walls

"Thank you Mark for sharing that. Reading your experiences was both heartbreaking and inspiring. No child should have to endure what you described, yet your comments about resilience gave me something to think about. I suspect many of us who haven’t lived through conflict assume that children are forever defined by those experiences. Your story reminds us that while the scars may remain, children also possess an extraordinary ability to adapt, persevere, and find moments of normalcy amid chaos. Thank you for sharing a perspective that few of us could offer firsthand."
- Andrew Clements
Read more »

What’s in your portfolio ?

"What do folks think of including a REIT ETF in their portfolio. I’ve read mixed reviews on the necessity of a REIT fund; more correlated with broad market, so not necessary. Thoughts?"
- Andy Morrison
Read more »

Bonds vs. Bond Funds

"Good perspective and summary zeroing in on one’s investment timeline and goal, Mark."
- Andy Morrison
Read more »

Close to Everything I Need

I DON’T HAVE MANY regrets in life. But there is one conversation with my mother that I wish I had never had. It was about moving her into an assisted living facility. She was in her 90s, and I thought it would be best for both of us. My mother would receive better care, and I could take much-needed breaks. She could even keep her house and spend time there when I was with her. It seemed like a middle-of-the-road approach to providing care. I thought it was a win-win situation for both of us. But I couldn't convince my mother to leave the home she had lived in for 42 years. She would ask me questions like, “How far my bed would be from the front door?” I was beginning to understand that she was afraid of moving to an unfamiliar place. It was simply too much to ask of her.  About six weeks later, my mother had a heart attack. She passed away a week afterward in a rehabilitation facility after being discharged from the hospital. Looking back, I sometimes wonder if our discussions about assisted living were harder on her than I realized. It's something I've thought about many times since. After reaching age 75 and coming closer to the possibility of needing more care myself, I now have a better understanding of why my mother wanted to age in place. She valued the familiarity and emotional comfort of her home. She knew exactly how far her bed was from the front door. She maintained relationships with neighbors who would stop by to chat and share a glass of wine. She also knew the people at the stores and restaurants she visited regularly. A few of them even attended her funeral. All of her doctors were nearby. She would often say, "I'm close to everything I need." Recently, when I was experiencing problems with my eyesight, I've felt more vulnerable. One day, while having lunch with my wife, I brought up the topic of how we might receive care in our later years. As soon as I mentioned assisted living, Rachel grew quiet and a sad look came over her face. I've seen that look before. At that moment, I realized I was hearing the same concern I had heard from my mother years earlier. They were thinking about leaving behind a familiar life and moving to a place where everything would be different. My wife and my mother are not alone. About three-quarters of Americans over age 50 say they want to remain in their current homes as they age. I count myself among them. Part of our long-term care planning is an effort to preserve the life we've built here for as long as possible. It's not an easy decision because none of us knows what our future health will look like. Aging in place offers advantages, but it also involves risks. If we need only limited assistance, staying in our home could be significantly less expensive than moving to a senior living community, especially since our mortgage is paid off. We can purchase only the services we need—housekeeping, meal delivery, transportation, or occasional home health care—and adjust that support as circumstances change. At the same time, we retain ownership of our home and any future appreciation in its value. That equity remains available if we eventually need more extensive care. Of course, there is no guarantee that our health will cooperate. Serious illnesses or cognitive decline could create care needs that are difficult or expensive to manage at home. That's one reason some people choose a continuing care retirement community (CCRC), which offers a continuum of care and contracts that can provide insurance-like protection against future long-term care costs. For us, the decision comes down to a tradeoff: Do we value maximum independence and flexibility today, or do we value having a built-in care system already in place for the future? For now, we're taking a hybrid approach. We plan to remain in our home through our 70s and early 80s. We're in reasonably good health, and my eyesight is no longer a major issue. We are planning to invest in accessibility improvements, including a stair lift to our upstairs master bedroom, grab bars in the bathrooms, and brighter lighting. Our house already has a walk-in shower, doorways and hallways wide enough for a walker, and space for a caregiver if one is ever needed. In addition, we’re setting aside a dedicated reserve of 20% of our investment portfolio to help cover future care needs. Most people do not spend years in a nursing home. As a result, we're not trying to fund the most expensive long-term-care scenario imaginable. Instead, we're setting aside enough money to cover the most likely care needs without significantly affecting our lifestyle. If we encounter a more extreme situation, we still have the remainder of our portfolio and the equity in our home available. That’s just basic financial planning: managing risk to a comfortable level instead of spending a fortune to eliminate it completely. We'll reevaluate our situation every few years and remain open to moving to a CCRC or assisted living community if health, mobility, or caregiving needs increase significantly. There may come a day when Rachel and I decide that a CCRC or assisted living community is the right choice. None of us can predict the future, and flexibility has value. But I now understand something I didn't fully appreciate when my mother was alive. A home is more than a place to live. It is a collection of routines, relationships, memories, and comforts that become increasingly important as we grow older. My mother knew that instinctively. She wasn't being stubborn. She was protecting a life she loved and a sense of independence that mattered deeply to her. When she told me she was close to everything she needed, she wasn't talking about stores, restaurants, or doctors. She was talking about belonging. It took me years to understand what she meant. If I had understood it sooner, our conversations about assisted living might have been very different.   Dennis Friedman retired from Boeing Satellite Systems after a 30-year career in manufacturing. Born in Ohio, Dennis is a California transplant with a bachelor’s degree in history and an MBA. A self-described “humble investor,” he likes reading historical novels and about personal finance. Follow Dennis on X @DMFrie and check out his earlier articles
Read more »

Many seniors think we paid for our Social Security benefits based on the FICA taxes we paid. Let’s dispel that myth- we didn’t

"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/23/opinion/moreno-warren-social-security.html?smid=url-share These 2 have the right idea ..."
- George Counihan
Read more »

How do you prepare for the long term care cost as retiree?

"We didn’t want to leave it to self-funding and didn’t want to become a financial burden on our daughters, so we bought LTC policies quite some time ago through CalPERS. We later adjusted them to a 10-year benefit when our original lifetime benefit became prohibitively expensive. Hopefully that will be enough. My family tree in particular is not impressive as to longevity, but my mother turns 85 this year, so you never know. The other “pegs” of our plan include locked in monthly income (pensions + SS) with survivor benefits (except for the second SS, of course) and the intent to get on a couple of CCRC benefits. If we move to a CCRC at some point, we’ll either sell our house or tap savings for the down payment, our monthly income will cover the monthly fees, and LTC will kick in if we need skilled nursing or memory care. "
- DrLefty
Read more »

The Solitaire Solution

"Like others, I have used monte carlo for my retirement savings. You have to make assumptions about different variables, which is the flaw of all these forecasts. Get the assumptions wrong and you get bad and misleading results."
- Jerry Pinkard
Read more »

Thinking about downsizing? Think seriously

"200 acres is huge. How many units are there?"
- R Quinn
Read more »

The S Word

SOCIALISM. IT'S A WORD that can make people on the far left swoon, as they imagine an egalitarian utopia, even while inciting those on the far right to mumble protective oaths like a medieval citizen seeing a sign of the devil. It’s also a word that Google Trends reports has had a surge in search-related interest since last December. As competing visions of how to protect and enhance the American economic system vie for political popularity, the word is used to both support and condemn proposals. Problem is, it’s been stretched, pulled, interpreted and manhandled so much that two people debating the merits of socialism may not even be discussing the same thing. That’s not good if our goal is calm, cool deliberation, rather than emotional, knee-jerk confrontation. Let’s take a step back and revisit some basic economic concepts. Economics is the study of how we make choices. Economic systems are defined by who gets to make those choices. In their purest form, there are three such systems: Free market economy. Individuals, most notably buyers and sellers, make the decisions. They negotiate price and quality. Life is improved, famously, by the “invisible hand” of the competitive market. Its advantage is that it allows maximum freedom, sets an immediate, rational value to things, and inspires capital investment and innovation. The downside is that it’s predicated on a delicate balance of power between buyers and sellers, which—if thrown off—can subvert the system, as happens when someone has a monopoly. In addition, the system is prone to making more short-term, individual-benefitting decisions, rather than long-term choices that might help us collectively, such as reducing pollution or improving mass transportation. Command economy. In this model, decisions are made by those with political power. This is the category into which socialism falls. But the category also includes regulation by republican forms of government, monarchies and dictatorships. Big picture decisions can be made that have long-term advantages, such as constructing public schools to educate future citizens. If done well, it’s also possible to achieve economies of scale—as happens with public utilities. The downside: Governments are notorious for not doing things well, quickly or without waste. Traditional economy. This is the sleeper one—but, ironically, it has the most decision-makers, because the group consists of all our ancestors and their continuing influence. Why is beef off the menu for one religion and pork off the menu for others? Why are many stores closed on Sunday, or clam chowder red in some parts of the country and white in others, or some clothes just for one gender? These are the cumulative effects of cultural decision-making over time, and we often roll with them. The advantage of this system is that it gives people a framework to work within. It offers the comfort and identity that comes with being part of a group. The downside: Traditional decisions can be the hardest to change, even when they have become antiquated and counterproductive. Which system do we have? What’s the best system? The first question is simple to answer, because it is true for every system ever used: We are a mixed system, predominantly free market, but with elements of the others. Go to a grocery store. The owner decides what to sell and what price he wants to charge, though—aware of the importance of culture—he’ll take into account local area favorites. As customers, our choice is limited by the grocery store’s selection—but we always have the choice to go to another grocery store. We can be fairly confident the food sold is of a minimum health standard set by the government, and we may pay for our purchase with government assistance, because we are elderly, a veteran or poor. In other words, it’s mostly free market, but with aspects of both a command and traditional economy. We can debate what the best balance is between the three. But it’s counterproductive to engage in demonizing and name-calling, and we shouldn’t irrationally condemn any of the historic and vital aspects of what’s become the world’s greatest economy. People on the left have no doubt benefited from wealth earned by entrepreneurs. People on the right have had their lives enhanced, and possibly saved, by government safety standards. And we all love national holidays. Jim Wasserman is a former business litigation attorney who taught economics and humanities for 20 years. His previous articles were Applying PressureFive MistakesSpoonful of Advice and Under the Influence. Jim’s book series on teaching behavioral economics and media literacy,  Media, Marketing, and Me, is being published in 2019. Jim lives in Granada, Spain, with his wife and fellow HumbleDollar contributor, Jiab. Together, they write a blog on retirement, finance and living abroad at YourThirdLife.com. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
Read more »

Financial Planning

"For those of us with most assets inside IRAs, I think this idea has merit."
- Dan Smith
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Still Teaching

"Mark, an expanded conversation on the subject could be very helpful to people."
- Dan Smith
Read more »

Four Walls

"Thank you Mark for sharing that. Reading your experiences was both heartbreaking and inspiring. No child should have to endure what you described, yet your comments about resilience gave me something to think about. I suspect many of us who haven’t lived through conflict assume that children are forever defined by those experiences. Your story reminds us that while the scars may remain, children also possess an extraordinary ability to adapt, persevere, and find moments of normalcy amid chaos. Thank you for sharing a perspective that few of us could offer firsthand."
- Andrew Clements
Read more »

What’s in your portfolio ?

"What do folks think of including a REIT ETF in their portfolio. I’ve read mixed reviews on the necessity of a REIT fund; more correlated with broad market, so not necessary. Thoughts?"
- Andy Morrison
Read more »

Bonds vs. Bond Funds

"Good perspective and summary zeroing in on one’s investment timeline and goal, Mark."
- Andy Morrison
Read more »

Close to Everything I Need

I DON’T HAVE MANY regrets in life. But there is one conversation with my mother that I wish I had never had. It was about moving her into an assisted living facility. She was in her 90s, and I thought it would be best for both of us. My mother would receive better care, and I could take much-needed breaks. She could even keep her house and spend time there when I was with her. It seemed like a middle-of-the-road approach to providing care. I thought it was a win-win situation for both of us. But I couldn't convince my mother to leave the home she had lived in for 42 years. She would ask me questions like, “How far my bed would be from the front door?” I was beginning to understand that she was afraid of moving to an unfamiliar place. It was simply too much to ask of her.  About six weeks later, my mother had a heart attack. She passed away a week afterward in a rehabilitation facility after being discharged from the hospital. Looking back, I sometimes wonder if our discussions about assisted living were harder on her than I realized. It's something I've thought about many times since. After reaching age 75 and coming closer to the possibility of needing more care myself, I now have a better understanding of why my mother wanted to age in place. She valued the familiarity and emotional comfort of her home. She knew exactly how far her bed was from the front door. She maintained relationships with neighbors who would stop by to chat and share a glass of wine. She also knew the people at the stores and restaurants she visited regularly. A few of them even attended her funeral. All of her doctors were nearby. She would often say, "I'm close to everything I need." Recently, when I was experiencing problems with my eyesight, I've felt more vulnerable. One day, while having lunch with my wife, I brought up the topic of how we might receive care in our later years. As soon as I mentioned assisted living, Rachel grew quiet and a sad look came over her face. I've seen that look before. At that moment, I realized I was hearing the same concern I had heard from my mother years earlier. They were thinking about leaving behind a familiar life and moving to a place where everything would be different. My wife and my mother are not alone. About three-quarters of Americans over age 50 say they want to remain in their current homes as they age. I count myself among them. Part of our long-term care planning is an effort to preserve the life we've built here for as long as possible. It's not an easy decision because none of us knows what our future health will look like. Aging in place offers advantages, but it also involves risks. If we need only limited assistance, staying in our home could be significantly less expensive than moving to a senior living community, especially since our mortgage is paid off. We can purchase only the services we need—housekeeping, meal delivery, transportation, or occasional home health care—and adjust that support as circumstances change. At the same time, we retain ownership of our home and any future appreciation in its value. That equity remains available if we eventually need more extensive care. Of course, there is no guarantee that our health will cooperate. Serious illnesses or cognitive decline could create care needs that are difficult or expensive to manage at home. That's one reason some people choose a continuing care retirement community (CCRC), which offers a continuum of care and contracts that can provide insurance-like protection against future long-term care costs. For us, the decision comes down to a tradeoff: Do we value maximum independence and flexibility today, or do we value having a built-in care system already in place for the future? For now, we're taking a hybrid approach. We plan to remain in our home through our 70s and early 80s. We're in reasonably good health, and my eyesight is no longer a major issue. We are planning to invest in accessibility improvements, including a stair lift to our upstairs master bedroom, grab bars in the bathrooms, and brighter lighting. Our house already has a walk-in shower, doorways and hallways wide enough for a walker, and space for a caregiver if one is ever needed. In addition, we’re setting aside a dedicated reserve of 20% of our investment portfolio to help cover future care needs. Most people do not spend years in a nursing home. As a result, we're not trying to fund the most expensive long-term-care scenario imaginable. Instead, we're setting aside enough money to cover the most likely care needs without significantly affecting our lifestyle. If we encounter a more extreme situation, we still have the remainder of our portfolio and the equity in our home available. That’s just basic financial planning: managing risk to a comfortable level instead of spending a fortune to eliminate it completely. We'll reevaluate our situation every few years and remain open to moving to a CCRC or assisted living community if health, mobility, or caregiving needs increase significantly. There may come a day when Rachel and I decide that a CCRC or assisted living community is the right choice. None of us can predict the future, and flexibility has value. But I now understand something I didn't fully appreciate when my mother was alive. A home is more than a place to live. It is a collection of routines, relationships, memories, and comforts that become increasingly important as we grow older. My mother knew that instinctively. She wasn't being stubborn. She was protecting a life she loved and a sense of independence that mattered deeply to her. When she told me she was close to everything she needed, she wasn't talking about stores, restaurants, or doctors. She was talking about belonging. It took me years to understand what she meant. If I had understood it sooner, our conversations about assisted living might have been very different.   Dennis Friedman retired from Boeing Satellite Systems after a 30-year career in manufacturing. Born in Ohio, Dennis is a California transplant with a bachelor’s degree in history and an MBA. A self-described “humble investor,” he likes reading historical novels and about personal finance. Follow Dennis on X @DMFrie and check out his earlier articles
Read more »

Many seniors think we paid for our Social Security benefits based on the FICA taxes we paid. Let’s dispel that myth- we didn’t

"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/23/opinion/moreno-warren-social-security.html?smid=url-share These 2 have the right idea ..."
- George Counihan
Read more »

How do you prepare for the long term care cost as retiree?

"We didn’t want to leave it to self-funding and didn’t want to become a financial burden on our daughters, so we bought LTC policies quite some time ago through CalPERS. We later adjusted them to a 10-year benefit when our original lifetime benefit became prohibitively expensive. Hopefully that will be enough. My family tree in particular is not impressive as to longevity, but my mother turns 85 this year, so you never know. The other “pegs” of our plan include locked in monthly income (pensions + SS) with survivor benefits (except for the second SS, of course) and the intent to get on a couple of CCRC benefits. If we move to a CCRC at some point, we’ll either sell our house or tap savings for the down payment, our monthly income will cover the monthly fees, and LTC will kick in if we need skilled nursing or memory care. "
- DrLefty
Read more »

The Solitaire Solution

"Like others, I have used monte carlo for my retirement savings. You have to make assumptions about different variables, which is the flaw of all these forecasts. Get the assumptions wrong and you get bad and misleading results."
- Jerry Pinkard
Read more »

Thinking about downsizing? Think seriously

"200 acres is huge. How many units are there?"
- R Quinn
Read more »

The S Word

SOCIALISM. IT'S A WORD that can make people on the far left swoon, as they imagine an egalitarian utopia, even while inciting those on the far right to mumble protective oaths like a medieval citizen seeing a sign of the devil. It’s also a word that Google Trends reports has had a surge in search-related interest since last December. As competing visions of how to protect and enhance the American economic system vie for political popularity, the word is used to both support and condemn proposals. Problem is, it’s been stretched, pulled, interpreted and manhandled so much that two people debating the merits of socialism may not even be discussing the same thing. That’s not good if our goal is calm, cool deliberation, rather than emotional, knee-jerk confrontation. Let’s take a step back and revisit some basic economic concepts. Economics is the study of how we make choices. Economic systems are defined by who gets to make those choices. In their purest form, there are three such systems: Free market economy. Individuals, most notably buyers and sellers, make the decisions. They negotiate price and quality. Life is improved, famously, by the “invisible hand” of the competitive market. Its advantage is that it allows maximum freedom, sets an immediate, rational value to things, and inspires capital investment and innovation. The downside is that it’s predicated on a delicate balance of power between buyers and sellers, which—if thrown off—can subvert the system, as happens when someone has a monopoly. In addition, the system is prone to making more short-term, individual-benefitting decisions, rather than long-term choices that might help us collectively, such as reducing pollution or improving mass transportation. Command economy. In this model, decisions are made by those with political power. This is the category into which socialism falls. But the category also includes regulation by republican forms of government, monarchies and dictatorships. Big picture decisions can be made that have long-term advantages, such as constructing public schools to educate future citizens. If done well, it’s also possible to achieve economies of scale—as happens with public utilities. The downside: Governments are notorious for not doing things well, quickly or without waste. Traditional economy. This is the sleeper one—but, ironically, it has the most decision-makers, because the group consists of all our ancestors and their continuing influence. Why is beef off the menu for one religion and pork off the menu for others? Why are many stores closed on Sunday, or clam chowder red in some parts of the country and white in others, or some clothes just for one gender? These are the cumulative effects of cultural decision-making over time, and we often roll with them. The advantage of this system is that it gives people a framework to work within. It offers the comfort and identity that comes with being part of a group. The downside: Traditional decisions can be the hardest to change, even when they have become antiquated and counterproductive. Which system do we have? What’s the best system? The first question is simple to answer, because it is true for every system ever used: We are a mixed system, predominantly free market, but with elements of the others. Go to a grocery store. The owner decides what to sell and what price he wants to charge, though—aware of the importance of culture—he’ll take into account local area favorites. As customers, our choice is limited by the grocery store’s selection—but we always have the choice to go to another grocery store. We can be fairly confident the food sold is of a minimum health standard set by the government, and we may pay for our purchase with government assistance, because we are elderly, a veteran or poor. In other words, it’s mostly free market, but with aspects of both a command and traditional economy. We can debate what the best balance is between the three. But it’s counterproductive to engage in demonizing and name-calling, and we shouldn’t irrationally condemn any of the historic and vital aspects of what’s become the world’s greatest economy. People on the left have no doubt benefited from wealth earned by entrepreneurs. People on the right have had their lives enhanced, and possibly saved, by government safety standards. And we all love national holidays. Jim Wasserman is a former business litigation attorney who taught economics and humanities for 20 years. His previous articles were Applying PressureFive MistakesSpoonful of Advice and Under the Influence. Jim’s book series on teaching behavioral economics and media literacy,  Media, Marketing, and Me, is being published in 2019. Jim lives in Granada, Spain, with his wife and fellow HumbleDollar contributor, Jiab. Together, they write a blog on retirement, finance and living abroad at YourThirdLife.com. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
Read more »

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Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 63: WE CAN’T time the stock market—but we can rebalance our portfolios. There’s no way to guess the market’s direction. But by regularly rebalancing, we can profit from those price swings.

act

TAKE STOCK of your bonds. Our financial lives are chock-full of bond lookalikes, including our paycheck, Social Security and any defined benefit pension—all paying us regular income now or in the future. Set against this income is a big income drain: our debts. Result: Our finances may be more or less risky than our bond position alone suggests.

humans

NO. 20: MONEY worries can make us miserable—which is why not spending can be so smart. If spending leaves us with no savings, and perhaps bills we can’t afford to pay, the result can be great unhappiness. Research suggests that having some $5,000 in a savings account or similar “liquid” form can substantially boost our sense of financial well-being.

Truths

NO. 38: IN EFFICIENT markets, stock and bond prices reflect all known information. That makes it tough for smart investors to find bargains and earn market-beating returns. But that market efficiency also protects ignorant investors, who are less likely to overpay for stocks and bonds, and hence they should do okay—provided they diversify.

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Manifesto

NO. 63: WE CAN’T time the stock market—but we can rebalance our portfolios. There’s no way to guess the market’s direction. But by regularly rebalancing, we can profit from those price swings.

Spotlight: Houses

Let’s revisit the pros and cons of relocating upon retirement

A few weeks ago I wrote about relocating upon retirement and concluded it isn’t for us. 
This summer we are getting to test that conclusion. We are spending the entire summer at our place on Cape Cod, which means several months away from our routines, church, friends, golfing buddies and mostly family. I suppose if we moved here we would become accustomed to many things, but not being six hours away from family, let alone a three hour plane ride,

Read more »

My Humble Abode

SIPPING MORNING coffee on the porch of my 40-year-old aluminum box in the Sonoran Desert, I’m pondering the cost of housing.
My affordable unit sits on cement piers at the end of a street within an age-restricted park, at the sparsely populated edge of Tucson. Few jobs exist nearby. Civic amenities are modest. Summer weather is challenging, with heat, thunderstorms and seasonal rattlesnakes. Still, these conditions have created a financially comfortable place for a retiree to live.

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When the Retirement Community Goes Bankrupt

A sobering read (apologies, this article is behind a paywall hence I am not sure if I can reproduce the article here or attach the pdf)
 
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/18/health/retirement-community-bankruptcy.html

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Our Homes, Our Wealth: A Tale of Two Property Paths

I’m booking flights at the moment. Suzie and I are heading to the South of England to visit my brother-in-law and family in a couple of weeks’ time. They’ve just recently hit a major life milestone by purchasing their first home together, and we’re looking forward to getting a tour by the proud owners. I’m very happy for them; I’m also very happy for myself because I’m getting free accommodation by staying with them.
My brother-in-law is in his mid-forties with a wife ten years younger and has expressed nervousness at taking on such a large debt at his age,

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When You Can’t Take Care of Yourself

I don’t believe I’ve ever enjoyed life more than I do now. What is there not to like about my life? I have my health, financial stability, plenty of free time to do the things I want, and I have a companion to share my journey with. I wish this stage of my life was never-ending.
But at age 73, I know my life could be turned upside down tomorrow. Lately, I’ve been thinking about what Rachel and I should do if we can’t take care of ourselves.

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Assisted Living: How Will You Choose?

There have been many discussions about assisted living and CCRC in HD. As I learn about how they staff and manage these facilities, there are many unanswered questions.
Currently, about 65% of elderly are cared for by their families at home. For 13% of those who aren’t living with family, the gap is partially filled by assisted living establishments. The median cost of care is $5,900/month, but ancillary services are extra. That can bring that cost over $15,000/month.

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Spotlight: Goodell

Prophets and Losses

OFTEN WRONG, never in doubt. That describes many economic prognosticators. A rational response: Treat their predictions like hazardous waste—handle with caution, or better yet, don’t handle at all. Among the countless examples, consider newsletter writer Harry Dent. Armed with a Harvard MBA, Dent makes market predictions that are fantastic and frequently wrong. In late April and more recently in June, he predicted that the market would crash, adding that if he’s wrong, he would quit his job. I’m not holding my breath. In 1998, Dent published The Roaring 2000s, predicting that the decade was a sure winner. It turned out to be the worst investing decade of my lifetime—by a significant margin. Dent’s The Great Depression Ahead was published in 2009, at the start of the longest bull market in history. In 2011, he doubled down, publishing The Great Crash Ahead. In 2016, Dent wrote The Sale of a Lifetime: How the Great Bubble Bust of 2017 Can Make You Rich. Such predictions may seem foolish. But it’s all about marketing. Nothing gets eyeballs like doom-and-gloom predictions. Enter “stock market crash” on YouTube and compare the number of views for videos predicting financial disaster to others from the same analyst. You’ll invariably find many more views of the crash videos. They cater to the part of our brains that fixates on fear—a learned survival mechanism from our hunter-gatherer ancestors. But the fact is, nobody knows what the future holds for the financial markets.
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Do It Anyway

SIX YEARS AGO, a colleague came into my office, looking concerned. He asked if I could speak with a client who was suffering from dementia. At the time, I was the Army’s attorney in charge of legal assistance at Fort Hood, Texas. One of the services we provided was drafting wills for servicemembers, veterans and their families. For our legal office, my policy was that I’d always be the person to deliver bad news. Every attorney who has practiced estate planning long enough has experienced what I was about to go through. But I’ve come to realize that no one is truly prepared for that first time. I certainly wasn’t. As I walked in and greeted the client, nothing seemed amiss. He was elderly and genial. When I asked him whether he owned his home and where he lived, reasonable questions to ascertain whether he was mentally competent to execute a will, I realized something was off. We sat awkwardly for a few minutes before the gentleman told me he couldn’t remember. Next came the tough conversation: informing him and his family, who had driven him to the appointment, that they wouldn’t be able to get a will, health care power of attorney and living will because he lacked the necessary mental ability. I’ll never forget that my first such conversation involved a kind, elderly man who wore a subtle pin on his sport coat that indicated he’d received the Silver Star for heroism in combat. That only made the conversation harder. He had sacrificed so much for the country, and yet the rules of my profession forbade me from helping. Instead, I felt utterly helpless. [xyz-ihs snippet="Mobile-Subscribe"] This hero left my office confused and sad. I’ve thought of him and our conversation often in the years since. A few…
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Income Isn’t Wealth

MY WIFE AND I RECENTLY read The Ant and the Grasshopper, from Aesop’s Fables, to our youngest daughter. If you recall, the grasshopper mocks the ant for spending all his free time amassing food. But when winter comes, the starving grasshopper begs for assistance—and the ant refuses. Lately, I’ve been struck by the irony of this parable. As we celebrate the role of physicians in keeping us all safe from a virus, that same virus is slowly starving physicians of their salaries. How am I acutely aware of this bizarre conundrum? I’m married to a family physician. Before you break out the world’s tiniest violin, allow me to paint a picture of what I and others are witnessing across the nation. The economics are startling, even if the personal finance lessons are a well-worn, cautionary tale. Since this virus’s arrival on our shores, more or less all of us are now under some kind of quarantine, except essential workers. As hospitals have halted their elective procedures to free up bed space and medical equipment, their revenue has taken a massive hit. In addition, many outpatient clinics have closed to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Our once-booming economy has now ground to a halt—even for the medical field. Those clinics that remain open have seen a dramatic decline in patients, who are presumably afraid they’ll get the virus by visiting the doctor. I went to my doctor’s office recently. It was a ghost town. It’s usually packed with people, but there were no other patients the entire time I was there. Many offices, including my wife’s, have gone to virtual medicine via video platforms, which has helped alleviate—but not eliminate—the financial burden. Keep in mind that these same doctors are on standby if or when hospitals become overwhelmed. They will begin seeing patients…
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Average Is Great

I RECENTLY DISCUSSED retirement plans with my old college roommate, Joe, who now runs his own business. As we wrapped up the conversation, Joe asked if I had any book recommendations. I told him I was about to start Good to Great, the management book by Jim Collins. It’s been a huge bestseller, with four million copies sold. Joe immediately shot back, “John, that book demonstrates precisely why low-cost index funds have to be the answer for most retirement plans. Read it and you’ll see what I mean.” Initially, I thought Joe was talking about fees, but he wasn’t. Instead, he was referring to the other major reason to own low-cost index funds: diversification. In seeking to find the best companies—those that go from good to great—Collins had uncovered some general truths about what constitutes the best leaders for a business organization. Collins posits that these leaders end up leaving their companies enduringly better. Did they? Here are some of the great companies that Collins identified: Circuit City, which went bankrupt in 2008, in part because of the rise of Amazon and online shopping. Fannie Mae, which effectively imploded during the Great Recession, thanks to bad lending. Wells Fargo, which has been mired in the fallout from its creation of millions of sham customer accounts. Clearly, time has proved how difficult it is for the great to stay great—or even good in some cases. To be fair, Collins profiles some companies that haven’t performed nearly so poorly, such as Nucor, Abbott Labs, Kimberly-Clark, Kroger and Walgreens (though the last two have also struggled because of online shopping and the behemoth that is Amazon). Changes in business models, and disruption caused by low-cost competitors and new technology, happen to the best of companies. Everyday investors can’t reliably predict these things. Even professional money…
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Stay Positive

AMONG THE AREAS of law that have made me miserable over 16 years of practice, it’s the adversarial roles that have made me most miserable. My experience in labor and employment law has been particularly difficult because the interaction with opposing counsel is usually contentious, each side compelled to zealously advocate for their position. Almost any type of litigation is a zero-sum game. One side wins, the other loses. Because the outcome is never guaranteed, those involved often engage in cut-throat, zero-sum behavior. I’ve slowly come to realize that the financial world has a similar dynamic. Short-term trading usually delivers zero-sum outcomes, while longer-term investing offers positive-sum results. The game that investors choose to play determines the outcome they receive. In a zero-sum game, rational actors seeking the greatest gain for themselves will necessarily do so at the expense of other actors. Trading amounts to a zero-sum game. Buyers hope to get a better deal at the expense of sellers, and vice versa. By contrast, in positive-sum games, the overall pie is growing, so there are more spoils for everyone to share. Positive-sum games can be win-win situations. Investing for the long term in a broad market index fund, and thereby avoiding the risks inherent in individual stocks, is a positive-sum game because markets move up over time—and all investors can potentially win. Moreover, the longer investors hold a diverse basket of stocks, the greater the likelihood that the engine of capitalism will produce a happy outcome. An added bonus: Investors can avoid the nasty “winner takes all” mentality that many short-term traders consciously or subconsciously have. For my own mental health, I prefer to play positive-sum games—whether it’s in my professional life or when investing.
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Saving Their Souls

EVERY FALL AT LAW schools across America, a process occurs called on-campus interviewing, or OCI, as it’s commonly known. The more elite the law school, the more prestigious the crop of law firms that visit, each offering the promise of large salaries to brilliant, mostly young minds. Only students with excellent grades or editorial positions on the school’s law review are selected to interview for summer internships. Like nearly all graduate schools, law school comes with an expensive price tag, leaving many students with large amounts of debt. Because law students are nearly always type-A personalities and because law firm recruiting is a zero-sum game—there are many more applicants than spots, with even fewer spots at prestigious, well-paying firms—law school tends to engender extreme competitiveness and jealousy. In the pre-internet era, there were legendary stories of pages torn from books to thwart other students’ success. In the 15 years since I graduated from law school, I’ve noticed an interesting trend. Very few of my peers who began as law firm associates stayed to make partner. Many left to become in-house counsel at corporations. Others became law professors, government attorneys and judges. Long hours, high pressure and unfulfilling work lead many attorneys to tap out of the law firm life, and opt instead for careers that are much less stressful and arguably more rewarding. Law school is by no means the only graduate school where the most intelligent alumni chase prestige and money, only to end up mired in soul-sucking work. Many top-tier business school graduates head to Wall Street. The best medical students often become plastic surgeons. Some of our brightest computer science minds create technology that negatively impacts countless lives. A lot of attention is paid to where someone goes to graduate school and what they do after graduation.…
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