A Worthy Choice?
Mike Zaccardi | Oct 17, 2021
A RECENT RULING from the Department of Labor appears to pave the way for more ESG (environmental, social and governance) mutual funds in 401(k) plans. Last week, Morningstar even launched an ESG-focused retirement plan service. ESG assets are modest compared to other parts of the money management business, but they’re growing fast. Fund flows are substantial in the U.S. and gigantic in Europe. Investors are increasingly putting their money where their conscience is. But is that really a good thing when it comes to building our long-term wealth? There’s data supporting the notion that stocks with high ESG scores perform relatively well. Critics, however, argue that impressive ESG fund performance simply reflects strong recent results for particular market sectors, notably technology. After all, tech firms and companies with an online-only presence have low carbon footprints—boosting their all-important “E” score. Aligning some of your wealth with your beliefs is fine. But as investors, we also need to keep sight of the cold-hearted truth that investing is primarily about building wealth. If we want to be charitable, it might make more sense to focus on donating part of our gains to our favorite nonprofits. One consequence of the Department of Labor’s favorable ruling for the ESG industry: 401(k) plan participants could be faced with more choice, and that often hurts investment decision-making. I’d rather just own a few low-cost index funds or even a single target-date fund. Would I ever consider an ESG fund? Only if its expense ratio was dirt cheap.
Read more » Listen Up
Mike Zaccardi | May 12, 2022
WHEN I STUDIED FOR the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) exams, I snagged extra prep time by listening to textbooks while commuting. As boring as that sounds, it helped me absorb the dry curriculum—and it made listening to financial information part of my daily routine.
While I no longer commute—or even own a car—I continue to plug in my earphones to catch up on the latest investment insights, often during my afternoon walks. Here are my eight favorite podcasts: The Long View. Morningstar’s Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak do a great job of interviewing portfolio managers, personal finance experts and other market pros. Investors seeking to learn more about the current investment landscape and finance generally should tune in. Consistent with the research firm’s thoughtful, data-driven approach, Benz and Ptak allow guests to talk while asking targeted questions. Animal Spirits. The Ritholtz Wealth Management team is famous for producing outstanding content for investors and financial advisors. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson have been at the mic for almost five years. Biweekly episodes consist of a no-nonsense approach to markets, including interviewing fintech firms and promoting sound, long-term investment concepts—all with a fun tone. They also dive into their latest favorite books and TV shows, an ever-popular segment. Standard Deviations. I’m a sucker for behavioral finance. To me, you won’t find a better communicator on the topic than Daniel Crosby, who has a PhD in psychology. He’s a frequent keynote speaker at conferences and has written several books on the subject. Infinite Loops. These Apple podcasts by Jim O'Shaughnessy and Jamie Catherwood hit each Thursday, offering a much broader perspective than the typical financial podcast. They’re a refreshing escape from the constant market news and noise that I usually subject myself to. CNBC’s Fast Money and Closing Bell: Overtime. HumbleDollar readers might scoff at listening to talking heads from shows focused on daily market action. I do it because panelists like Josh Brown, Ed Yardeni and Jeremy Siegel often bring commonsense to the crazy world of short-term trading. I also have to keep up with the day-to-day action for my writing gigs—it comes with the territory. “The Weekly Trend” by David Zarling and Ian McMillan, along with “Behind the Markets” with Jeremy Schwartz and Prof. Siegel, are also among my weekend market listens. Odd Lots. While reading Bloomberg articles requires a subscription, you can freely tune into Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway interviewing guests on fascinating macro topics. Inflation, supply chain issues and niche industry trends are among the topics covered. The hosts’ chemistry makes the show compelling, and their journalism skills are on full display. Kitces & Carl. Many financial advisors are familiar with Michael Kitces and Carl Richards. Kitces runs one of the most-visited research sites in the wealth management industry. Richards is famous for his simple and profound sketches published in The New York Times during his years as a columnist. Since I work with financial advisors, I never miss an episode. Rarely do I listen to a show and fail to come away with a cool writing idea. Your Money Briefing. This daily 10-minute podcast from The Wall Street Journal covers a market topic or personal finance issue. Journalists are brought on to talk about their recent articles. I particularly enjoy it when Laura Saunders, the newspaper’s tax expert, weighs in. Admittedly, I’m an information and research addict. Not everyone is like that and, indeed, some investors may be better off ignoring anything related to day-to-day market analysis and financial news. But if you want to learn more about the markets—and the information doesn’t prompt you to trade unnecessarily—you could do worse than listen to a few of the shows listed above.
Mike Zaccardi is a freelance writer for financial advisors and investment firms. He's a CFA® charterholder and Chartered Market Technician®, and has passed the coursework for the Certified Financial Planner program. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikeZaccardi, connect with him via LinkedIn, email him at MikeCZaccardi@gmail.com and check out his earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
Read more » Submerging Markets
Mike Zaccardi | Aug 1, 2021
JULY WAS ANOTHER positive month for U.S. stocks, which gained 1.7%. But overseas markets were down 1.4%, with emerging markets faring even worse, tumbling 5.9%. Last week, the Chinese government clamped down on its education and technology industries, sparking a sharp selloff. The return of Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (symbol: VWO), which is 40% Chinese stocks, briefly turned negative for the year, while U.S. stocks continue to sport year-to-date gains of more than 15%. Sentiment is so bearish that The Economist featured emerging markets on its cover this weekend. The prudent course of action is to rebalance your portfolio once or twice a year to ensure your asset allocation fits with your long-term goals. Emerging markets comprise about 11% of the total world stock market, as measured by Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT). Straying from that number is effectively an active bet for or against emerging markets. When analyzing your portfolio’s composition, keep in mind that broader international funds may have a significant allocation to emerging markets. Volatility in any one market segment can prompt investors to question their allocation. While this past week’s steep decline in emerging markets is no more than a blip, it’s been many months since we’ve seen that sort of short-term hit in the stock market. It’s a little reminder to always keep a long-term focus when the headlines turn scary.
Read more » It Could Be Worse
Mike Zaccardi | Dec 26, 2022
FEELING DESPONDENT about your 2022 investment returns? Yes, it’s been a grueling year for almost all stock and bond investors. But some folks have been hit far harder than others.
In the bounce back from 2020’s coronavirus market crash, near-zero-percent interest rates, coupled with consumers flush with cash, made for pockets of irrational exuberance. High-risk growth stocks—like those owned by Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (symbol: ARKK)—captured the imaginations of Wall Street and Main Street alike.
ARK Innovation rallied from a pandemic low of $33 to its February 2021 peak just shy of $160. But fast forward to today, and the fund’s shares have completed a roundtrip to their March 2020 bottom. The fund has plummeted some 80% from its all-time high and is off 67% this year alone. One fund has capitalized on ARK’s misfortune: AXS Short Innovation Daily ETF (SARK) sells short the entire ARK Innovation portfolio, in a bet those stocks will fall. AXS is up almost 86% in 2022.
But ARK Innovation is hardly 2022’s only big loser. In 2021, SPACs, short for special purpose acquisition companies, were a popular way for private companies to become publicly traded. But total issuance of new SPACs was down sharply in the first half of 2022 from a year earlier, and that trend has likely continued through the rest of 2022. What about the performance of companies that went public via the SPAC route? Bloomberg reports that the median post-merger SPAC company that debuted this year is down a stunning 70%.
And we can’t leave out cryptocurrencies. Stalwarts like bitcoin and ethereum are down more than 60% in 2022, while smaller “altcoins” have fared even worse. Meanwhile, some stablecoins—tokens thought to be pegged one-for-one to the dollar—left investors with big losses as some crypto lenders went bankrupt in recent months. In all, the total value of cryptocurrencies is down some 65% year-to-date, dropping from nearly $3 trillion in November 2021 to almost $800 billion today.
We shouldn’t expect gains every year in the stock and bond markets. Still, while a 15% to 20% drop feels lousy, it pales next to the crashes we’ve seen in these other assets. Moreover, while it’s debatable whether investors in SPACs, crypto and ARK Innovation will ever make back their losses, 2022’s pain in the mainstream stock and bond markets probably means better returns in the years ahead.
Read more » Wrestling With Rates
Mike Zaccardi | Jan 31, 2022
THE S&P 500 WAS UP 0.8% last week. It was a wild ride, with the Volatility Index climbing to almost 40—the highest level in 15 months—as investors grappled with the threat of rising interest rates. The Federal Reserve is steadfast in its plans to aggressively raise short-term interest rates. Bank of America Global Research was the buzz of Wall Street on Friday morning, with its economic team saying it now expects the Fed to hike rates by a quarter-point at all seven remaining meetings this year. If Bank of America is right, we’ll be able to earn upwards of 2½% to 3% on money market accounts by the end of 2023. But keep in mind that forecasts vary widely. Still, the fear is that tighter Fed policy will lead to slower economic growth. Amid the monetary policy uncertainty, corporate earnings are coming in fast. FactSet’s earnings insight blog provides the latest earnings season figures. It’s been a solid but not spectacular reporting period thus far. FactSet says that 77% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates, near the five-year average beat rate. Aggregate earnings, however, are just 4% above analysts’ expectations, well below the 8.6% five-year average. With the S&P 500 down 7% year-to-date and earnings continuing to climb, price-earnings (P/E) ratios are becoming more reasonable. The U.S. stock market now looks cheaper than at any time last year. The ratio based on expected earnings is at 19.2, near the five-year average of 18.5, says FactSet. Outside the S&P 500—such as among foreign stocks—valuations appear much better. Meanwhile, the economy was humming along until Omicron hit. The Commerce Department reported Thursday that real gross domestic product grew at a 6.9% annualized clip in the fourth quarter. That’s the fourth fastest pace since the high-growth days of the mid-1980s. Much of the huge growth in the economy was the result of inventory restocking, which is seen as less indicative of sustainable growth. Looking ahead, economists expect the latest COVID variant to hurt job growth in January. We’ll get a fresh look at the employment situation on Friday. Some forecasters expect the Labor Department to report a drop in jobs after a stellar 807,000 gain in December’s employment report.
Read more » Cash No Longer Trash
Mike Zaccardi | Aug 1, 2022
MONEY MARKET YIELDS are no longer zero. Far from it. With the Federal Reserve raising short-term interest rates by another 0.75 percentage point last week, investors can now park their savings in a safe money-market mutual fund and earn more than 2%.
If you look at Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (symbol: VFMXX), you won’t see a seven-day SEC yield that’s that high—yet. But give it a few days. Right before the Fed’s move last week, Vanguard’s money market fund yielded 1.5%. Add 0.75 percentage point to that figure, and you’ll get a sense for where we’re headed.
For folks with accounts at Fidelity Investments, another option is Fidelity Money Market Fund (SPRXX). The last time I reviewed Fidelity’s policies, it doesn’t allow that fund to be a default core cash position. Instead, you must opt to purchase the fund’s shares, just like you would any other fund. That means there’s an extra step to get the fund's higher yield, versus Fidelity Government Money Market Fund (SPAXX), which has a lower SEC yield but can be used as a default cash position. I stumbled across a Fidelity Institutional page that lists a “one-day” SEC yield of 1.96% for Fidelity Money Market Fund as of July 29.
Earlier this year, I suggested people consider a short-term Treasury bond fund for their emergency savings. At the time, the yields on those funds were attractive relative to bank money market accounts and online savings accounts. I took my own advice. As it turns out, I was early with that call. Rates rose through mid-June, leading to modest share-price declines among the Treasury funds I mentioned in March. But now, with Treasury note yields declining over the past seven weeks while the Fed hikes short-term rates, I decided to make a switch.
Late last week, I exchanged my emergency money, which had been sitting in Fidelity Short-Term Treasury Bond Index Fund (FUMBX), to Fidelity Money Market Fund. My plan now is to keep my cash in that money market fund through at least early 2023. That’s when traders see the Fed’s rate-raising campaign peaking in the 3.25% to 3.5% range. Thanks to the Fed’s actions and a Treasury yield curve that’s the most inverted it’s been since 2000, money-market mutual funds look like a relatively good deal—one that comes with little risk.
Read more »
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