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If owning foreign stocks is especially risky for U.S. investors, is owning U.S. shares especially risky for foreigners?

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2025 Tax Return Time – Overview of Changes

"It’s called an “IP PIN,” originally established for victims of identity theft. Eventually, all taxpayers were allowed to obtain one. I’ve used one since anyone could get one. Another layer of security to add. I’d advise everyone to get one."
- Jeff Long
Read more »

Helping Adult Children

"We take a somewhat different approach to this, as I may have mentioned in other posts on this topic. We pay for our grandchildren’s summer camps directly to the camps they attend. This large expense would be difficult for our daughters and SILs to manage without our help. Our two oldest granddaughters (14 and 12) attend sleep away camp for 1/2 of the summer session as they have dance competitions early in the summer that prevents them from attending the full summer session. Our younger daughter has a 7 and 3 year old and we pay for their day camps for the full summer session. Although the amounts are not equal we have never looked at it as needing to “Even it out” between our daughters. They are each benefiting from having this large childcare expense paid for by grandma and grandpa. In fact, the camps know that we pay the bills and they bill us or Debit our bank account directly for the payments. I’m not sure how we will continue this once they “outgrow” summer camps (when college comes around) but I’m sure we will find other ways to help out with large expenditures (other than college tuition)."
- luvtoride44afe9eb1e
Read more »

My toe in the water again – with hesitation.

"Here is food for thought. A new WalletHub survey on American’s debt says ”65% of people think better budgeting will solve their problems with debt.” I’m thinking better.spending habits might be the answer. "
- R Quinn
Read more »

Should You Stop Contributing To Your IRA?

"You’re correct—there are important structural distinctions between IRAs and employer plans like 401(k)s and 403(b)s. My intent wasn’t to collapse those differences, but to focus on the shared math and behavior across retirement accounts, particularly the point at which portfolio growth overtakes new contributions. I agree the title should better reflect that nuance."
- William Housley
Read more »

When $2100 is not what it appears. The Medicare Part D trap

"My wife uses some expensive medications so that limits some Part D plans that I can use. I discovered Cost Plus Drugs which is Mark Cuban's invention. So, when we have to renew Part D, I spreadsheet all her meds and figure out which plan in conjunction with Cost Plus provides the lowest cost. I have moved her plan every year for the last 4 years and saved several thousand dollars by doing so. Not everyone has an interest in doing this much work to save money. It is shameful what senior citizens have to go through."
- Tony Schmitt
Read more »

Choices, choices everywhere

"Chris - when I was younger, and my kids were very young, I would tell them that when they were independently wealthy I wanted an arrest-me-red Porsche 911 Turbo with a whale tale and a rollbar. They are not yet independently wealthy so I must be content with my self-purchased Subaru Forester. They last time I rode in a serious sports car, I had the same experience as you, as it was a struggle to extricate myself from the vehicle."
- Jeff Bond
Read more »

The High Cost of Financial Advice: A Tale of Two Portfolios Revisited

"Know thyself! 😀 …you are doing what’s right for you."
- Andy Morrison
Read more »

Value of Waiting

I WAS THINKING ABOUT Jonathan the other day on my morning walk, which happens more often than you might think. It’s hard not to think about him when you have HumbleDollar coasters in your living room and a HumbleDollar shopping bag in your car that you use for groceries. My wife confiscated the HumbleDollar cup I had been using for my morning tea, and it now has a new home in our bathroom holding her toothbrush and toothpaste. There’s even an apron somewhere in the house that Jonathan once sent to all the writers. Ever since I started writing for HumbleDollar in 2017, Jonathan has influenced my retirement. I now own the Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund (symbol: VT) in my investment portfolio because of his recommendation. He liked it for its “broad global diversification in one low-cost fund that covers virtually all publicly traded companies worldwide.” It struck me as a good way to simplify our holdings. I didn’t just borrow some of Jonathan’s investment ideas; I also borrowed some of his words he used when editing my articles. I began peppering my writing with words like fret, upshot, and folks. He once told me, “While your grammar is occasionally a bit dodgy, you have a great ear for language.” I was too embarrassed to ask him what he meant by a “great ear for language.” When I retired, I never imagined that writing for HumbleDollar would become such a big part of my retirement, and I’m grateful to Jonathan for that. I also didn’t think my retirement would be so fluid. I pictured something far more stable: remaining single, living in a one-bedroom condo, and fending for myself. My life now is different. I’m married and live in a three-bedroom home in another city. One of the biggest changes, however, has nothing to do with geography. It has to do with money—specifically, how financial decisions change when there are two people instead of one. I learned that lesson early in our marriage. We got married in August 2020. That December, I woke up one morning and saw blood in my urine. I went to an urologist who ran a series of tests, but it took about a month to determine the cause.   During that time, I decided to consolidate our remaining investment holdings to make things easier for Rachel to manage in case something happened to me. Most of our money was already at Vanguard, except for a 401(k) from my former employer that was invested in a stable value fund. It still held a significant balance. Without much hesitation, I moved it into a bond fund at Vanguard. Not too long afterward, the bond market nosedived. The fund performed poorly—especially compared to the stable value fund the money had been in. The upshot: I panicked—and paid for it. It wasn’t a good time to make a financial decision while I was under stress. Some of the worst money moves happen when emotions are running high—selling stocks at the bottom of a bear market or rushing to act after an unexpected windfall. More often than not, it’s better to wait until you’re clearheaded before making a decision. At the time, I was also fretting about whether Rachel would qualify for my Social Security benefit, which is much larger than hers. You have to be married for at least nine months. I found myself counting off the days. Another financial decision became more complicated simply because we were now a couple: what to do with the three properties we owned—my condo, Rachel’s house, and the house I had inherited. Neither of us wanted to be landlords at this stage of our lives. We were excited about getting married and starting a new life together. I decided to sell my condo during the pandemic, which wasn’t easy. Rather than wait, I accepted an offer of $380,000—$43,000 below the asking price. Rachel decided to wait and rent out her house for two years. She didn’t get caught up in the excitement or rush into selling. As it turned out, that patience paid off. When the for-sale sign finally went up, I would stop by the house to water the yard and rake the falling leaves. One day, a real estate agent and his client were there looking at the property. They kept asking me whether the price listed on the brochure was correct. Rachel’s agent had intentionally priced the house at the lower end of the range in hopes of creating a bidding war. I told them they would have to talk to my wife and her agent because it wasn’t my house. The agent asked how long we had been married. When I told him two years, he nodded and said, “I get it. She wanted to wait until she was sure about the marriage before selling the house.” Rachel laughed when I told her what he said. She wasn’t waiting to see if the marriage would work. She waited because selling a house is a major financial decision, and she didn’t see any reason to rush it. Two years later, the timing turned out to be just right. The market had improved and the strategy worked exactly as planned. There were multiple offers, and the final sale price was well above what it would have been earlier. At the time my wife sold her house, Zillow’s estimated price of my condo was $484,000—$104,000 more than I received. I don’t really know why I was in such a rush to sell. Maybe it had something to do with the pandemic, my mother’s recent death, my sister and brother-in-law moving out of state, or the stress of renovating our new house. It was an emotional time for me, and I was probably searching for some stability in my life. What I’ve learned—both from Jonathan and from being married—is that good financial decisions usually come from patience, not urgency. When I feel anxious or pressured to act, I’m more likely to make a mistake. When I slow down, think things through, and listen—especially to my wife—the outcome is usually better. Managing money well isn’t about always making the right move. It’s about avoiding the wrong ones—and knowing when to wait.  Dennis Friedman retired from Boeing Satellite Systems after a 30-year career in manufacturing. Born in Ohio, Dennis is a California transplant with a bachelor’s degree in history and an MBA. A self-described “humble investor,” he likes reading historical novels and about personal finance. Follow Dennis on X @DMFrie and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

A Message to Young Readers: Your Crisis Is Coming.

"Thanks mom & dad, both yours for the help they gave you, an mine for the $12,000 (20%) down payment on my family of 5's first house in Concord, CA in 1975!"
- David Rhoades
Read more »

Perfect Portfolio

WHAT'S THE BEST way to manage your investments? A new book titled Your Perfect Portfolio helps answer this question. I spoke this week with the author, Cullen Roche. Adam Grossman: The title is Your Perfect Portfolio with an emphasis on your Cullen Roche: I was very intentional about saying “your perfect portfolio” because everyone’s different, everyone’s unique. So I wrote this book with the intent of studying lots of different strategies and styles. I go into detail on the history behind the portfolios, why they’re popular, their origin story, then I describe the history of how they’ve performed, and the pros and cons, and who these portfolios might be good and bad for. The goal is to help people not only understand all the different options out there, but hopefully arrive at a point where they can look at certain styles or strategies and say, “This is the portfolio that’s perfect for me.” Adam: You start the book with 10 essential principles. One is that beating the market is very hard. Cullen: The numbers are daunting. Over 20 years, 95% of active investors will underperform a simple index. More importantly, beating the market is literally not a good financial goal, because typically when people are chasing returns, they’re really chasing risk. Adam: Another of your essential principles is that asset allocation is a temporal conundrum. Cullen: We talk about diversification across different asset classes, but people don’t often talk about diversification across different time horizons. Especially from a financial planning perspective, I think the difficulty is that it’s really a time problem. When you sit down with somebody and you start mapping out their financial goals, you’re really trying to make sure that people have enough money at certain times in their life. [Dartmouth College finance professor] Ken French said that risk is uncertainty of future consumption, which I think is a perfect way of summarizing it. Asset allocation, to me, is really a time-based problem. Adam: In the second part of your book, you discuss 20 different portfolio options. Let’s start with the simplest one: 100% bonds. What are the pros and cons? Cullen: I’m a huge advocate of very, very short-term instruments. I’m somewhat hypercritical of very long-duration bonds. I love the concept of matching assets to liabilities, which is what banks and pension funds do. It’s even more applicable to your average individual investor. So I try to be rigorous about matching assets and liabilities inside of portfolios, but when you get to longer-term Treasurys, they’re not very good liability matching instruments, because of the risk. Bonds can be wildly volatile instruments that, on a risk-adjusted basis, just don’t generate very good returns. Today, a 30-year Treasury bond is yielding 4.5%, and has a duration, or interest rate sensitivity level, of 18%. If you’ve got a 15-plus year time horizon, the probability of the stock market outperforming bonds is very, very high.  Adam: At the other end of the spectrum, there’s 100% stocks. If someone were 30 or 40 years old, with decades until retirement, should that person go all-in on stocks?  Cullen: You should think of your human capital as sort of a fixed income allocation. The income you’re generating from your job functions a lot like a bond, and so if you’re making $100,000 a year, you can think of that as a $1 million bond that is paying 10%. So someone who’s 20 years old, who’s got 40 years of runway, they actually have a lot more potential to take equity market risk, because they’ve basically got a 40-year bond that is going to be paying them 10% a year. It’s arguably the greatest asset that person has. They’ve got a much higher risk capacity because of that. Adam: Is age the only consideration in deciding on an allocation? Cullen: I also like to break it up by portfolio type. For a 50-year-old with a Roth IRA and a taxable account, their Roth has a very different return and risk profile than their taxable account. They’ve got the luxury in the Roth IRA of thinking of that account as maybe a multi-generational account. So that piece of your portfolio might be 100% stocks. Adam: So any given person might have more than one perfect portfolio? Cullen: Yes, you’re not just building one sort of homogeneous portfolio. You can pick and choose and have lots of different perfect portfolios of your own. Adam: Between the extremes of 100% bonds and 100% stocks, the book looks at the traditional 60-40 strategy as well as the Bogleheads three-fund portfolio. What are the pros and cons? Cullen: The three-fund portfolio is a bond aggregate fund, a domestic stock fund, and a foreign stock fund. It’s just three funds. It can be bought for close to 0% fees. It’s incredibly elegant in its simplicity. That and the 60-40 strategy have stood the test of time. But you can also argue that there are elements in them that are too simple. You don’t have a cash bucket, so if you’re going through 2022, and you were a retiree with the three-fund portfolio, you maybe didn’t feel that comfortable. You probably felt like you wanted a fourth bucket inside of that portfolio at times during that year.  Adam: After deciding on their perfect portfolio, how often should investors revisit their strategy? Cullen: Only when life changes. For longer-term goals, I don’t think you should tinker too much. You should probably just buy index funds and set it and forget it. Let them serve long-term needs. Adam: In deciding whether to change strategy, should investors respond to the news? Cullen: The financial media is incentivized to say almost hyperbolic things all the time, because they’re just trying to get your attention. And that’s counterproductive to a lot of what good, sound portfolio management requires.  Adam: Gold makes an appearance in some of the portfolios in your book. How do you think about gold? Cullen: Gold is a really tough asset to think about because it doesn’t generate cash flows. There’s no way to really value it. Some people view gold as almost like fiat currency insurance, which I don’t think is irrational. But nobody knows how to value it.  And it’s had this huge run-up. When an asset goes up a whole lot in a very short time period, that creates what I call price compression. Let’s say that gold can be reasonably expected to generate 8% per year, for instance. And let’s say it gains 70%, like it did last year. What happens, in my view, inside of an environment like that, is that you’ve taken a whole bunch of those average 8% years, and you’ve compressed them all down into one year. And what this does is creates much greater sequence of return risk going forward, where the probability is higher of the prices decompressing at some point. The classic example of price compression was the NASDAQ bubble. If you bought at the very top of the NASDAQ 100 back in 2000, you’ve generated an 8% return per year—a really good return, even if you picked the absolute worst time to buy. The kicker, of course, is that you went through 15 to 20 years of just horrific sequence of return risk inside of that portfolio. So when I see an asset booming like gold, that’s the risk. Adam: Another portfolio is the endowment model. It’s gotten a lot of discussion recently because of the potential for private funds to enter 401(k) plans. How should individual investors think about the endowment model? Cullen: This is a really hard one. You almost need your own research team to actually manage a good endowment portfolio. They’re really complex, they’re hard to replicate. And you’ve got a huge fee compounding effect inside a lot of these portfolios. For the vast majority of people, you really don’t need to try to do anything that sophisticated, because there’s other really simple models where you can get low-cost, diversified asset allocation without giving yourself brain damage trying to overcomplicate everything. Adam: In a paper you wrote in 2022, you introduced a concept you call Defined Duration Investing. Could you talk about how that works? Cullen: It’s kind of like a bucketing strategy, where I’m bucketing things into very specific time horizons, but I’m doing it in a much more personalized way, where each bucket is serving a specific financial goal and matched to a specific asset. Then you can allocate it in a much more quantified way, mapping out the expenses and liabilities. For instance, we need one year of emergency funds. That’s going into a T-bill ladder. We have a house down payment for $200K that we need to set aside. That’s going into a three-year instrument. And then you’ve got retirement goals 20 years out. We’re matching that to a 20-year type of instrument. You can start to build a rigorously, temporally structured portfolio utilizing this methodology. When I wrote the paper three years ago, I was trying to quantify the time horizon of the stock market, in order to quantify the sequence of returns risk in the market.  The thing that I always disliked about bucketing strategies was that they don’t really quantify or communicate the time horizon to people. They use these vague sorts of terms like “short-term” and “long-term.” The question I always run into is determining what long-term means. Learning to think across very specific time horizons is really useful, because it creates this clarity, matching assets to future liabilities. And I mitigate a lot of the behavioral risk in my portfolio, because I understand exactly what my asset-liability mismatch looks like, and if there is one or not.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

2025 Tax Return Time – Overview of Changes

"It’s called an “IP PIN,” originally established for victims of identity theft. Eventually, all taxpayers were allowed to obtain one. I’ve used one since anyone could get one. Another layer of security to add. I’d advise everyone to get one."
- Jeff Long
Read more »

Helping Adult Children

"We take a somewhat different approach to this, as I may have mentioned in other posts on this topic. We pay for our grandchildren’s summer camps directly to the camps they attend. This large expense would be difficult for our daughters and SILs to manage without our help. Our two oldest granddaughters (14 and 12) attend sleep away camp for 1/2 of the summer session as they have dance competitions early in the summer that prevents them from attending the full summer session. Our younger daughter has a 7 and 3 year old and we pay for their day camps for the full summer session. Although the amounts are not equal we have never looked at it as needing to “Even it out” between our daughters. They are each benefiting from having this large childcare expense paid for by grandma and grandpa. In fact, the camps know that we pay the bills and they bill us or Debit our bank account directly for the payments. I’m not sure how we will continue this once they “outgrow” summer camps (when college comes around) but I’m sure we will find other ways to help out with large expenditures (other than college tuition)."
- luvtoride44afe9eb1e
Read more »

My toe in the water again – with hesitation.

"Here is food for thought. A new WalletHub survey on American’s debt says ”65% of people think better budgeting will solve their problems with debt.” I’m thinking better.spending habits might be the answer. "
- R Quinn
Read more »

Should You Stop Contributing To Your IRA?

"You’re correct—there are important structural distinctions between IRAs and employer plans like 401(k)s and 403(b)s. My intent wasn’t to collapse those differences, but to focus on the shared math and behavior across retirement accounts, particularly the point at which portfolio growth overtakes new contributions. I agree the title should better reflect that nuance."
- William Housley
Read more »

When $2100 is not what it appears. The Medicare Part D trap

"My wife uses some expensive medications so that limits some Part D plans that I can use. I discovered Cost Plus Drugs which is Mark Cuban's invention. So, when we have to renew Part D, I spreadsheet all her meds and figure out which plan in conjunction with Cost Plus provides the lowest cost. I have moved her plan every year for the last 4 years and saved several thousand dollars by doing so. Not everyone has an interest in doing this much work to save money. It is shameful what senior citizens have to go through."
- Tony Schmitt
Read more »

Choices, choices everywhere

"Chris - when I was younger, and my kids were very young, I would tell them that when they were independently wealthy I wanted an arrest-me-red Porsche 911 Turbo with a whale tale and a rollbar. They are not yet independently wealthy so I must be content with my self-purchased Subaru Forester. They last time I rode in a serious sports car, I had the same experience as you, as it was a struggle to extricate myself from the vehicle."
- Jeff Bond
Read more »

The High Cost of Financial Advice: A Tale of Two Portfolios Revisited

"Know thyself! 😀 …you are doing what’s right for you."
- Andy Morrison
Read more »

Value of Waiting

I WAS THINKING ABOUT Jonathan the other day on my morning walk, which happens more often than you might think. It’s hard not to think about him when you have HumbleDollar coasters in your living room and a HumbleDollar shopping bag in your car that you use for groceries. My wife confiscated the HumbleDollar cup I had been using for my morning tea, and it now has a new home in our bathroom holding her toothbrush and toothpaste. There’s even an apron somewhere in the house that Jonathan once sent to all the writers. Ever since I started writing for HumbleDollar in 2017, Jonathan has influenced my retirement. I now own the Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund (symbol: VT) in my investment portfolio because of his recommendation. He liked it for its “broad global diversification in one low-cost fund that covers virtually all publicly traded companies worldwide.” It struck me as a good way to simplify our holdings. I didn’t just borrow some of Jonathan’s investment ideas; I also borrowed some of his words he used when editing my articles. I began peppering my writing with words like fret, upshot, and folks. He once told me, “While your grammar is occasionally a bit dodgy, you have a great ear for language.” I was too embarrassed to ask him what he meant by a “great ear for language.” When I retired, I never imagined that writing for HumbleDollar would become such a big part of my retirement, and I’m grateful to Jonathan for that. I also didn’t think my retirement would be so fluid. I pictured something far more stable: remaining single, living in a one-bedroom condo, and fending for myself. My life now is different. I’m married and live in a three-bedroom home in another city. One of the biggest changes, however, has nothing to do with geography. It has to do with money—specifically, how financial decisions change when there are two people instead of one. I learned that lesson early in our marriage. We got married in August 2020. That December, I woke up one morning and saw blood in my urine. I went to an urologist who ran a series of tests, but it took about a month to determine the cause.   During that time, I decided to consolidate our remaining investment holdings to make things easier for Rachel to manage in case something happened to me. Most of our money was already at Vanguard, except for a 401(k) from my former employer that was invested in a stable value fund. It still held a significant balance. Without much hesitation, I moved it into a bond fund at Vanguard. Not too long afterward, the bond market nosedived. The fund performed poorly—especially compared to the stable value fund the money had been in. The upshot: I panicked—and paid for it. It wasn’t a good time to make a financial decision while I was under stress. Some of the worst money moves happen when emotions are running high—selling stocks at the bottom of a bear market or rushing to act after an unexpected windfall. More often than not, it’s better to wait until you’re clearheaded before making a decision. At the time, I was also fretting about whether Rachel would qualify for my Social Security benefit, which is much larger than hers. You have to be married for at least nine months. I found myself counting off the days. Another financial decision became more complicated simply because we were now a couple: what to do with the three properties we owned—my condo, Rachel’s house, and the house I had inherited. Neither of us wanted to be landlords at this stage of our lives. We were excited about getting married and starting a new life together. I decided to sell my condo during the pandemic, which wasn’t easy. Rather than wait, I accepted an offer of $380,000—$43,000 below the asking price. Rachel decided to wait and rent out her house for two years. She didn’t get caught up in the excitement or rush into selling. As it turned out, that patience paid off. When the for-sale sign finally went up, I would stop by the house to water the yard and rake the falling leaves. One day, a real estate agent and his client were there looking at the property. They kept asking me whether the price listed on the brochure was correct. Rachel’s agent had intentionally priced the house at the lower end of the range in hopes of creating a bidding war. I told them they would have to talk to my wife and her agent because it wasn’t my house. The agent asked how long we had been married. When I told him two years, he nodded and said, “I get it. She wanted to wait until she was sure about the marriage before selling the house.” Rachel laughed when I told her what he said. She wasn’t waiting to see if the marriage would work. She waited because selling a house is a major financial decision, and she didn’t see any reason to rush it. Two years later, the timing turned out to be just right. The market had improved and the strategy worked exactly as planned. There were multiple offers, and the final sale price was well above what it would have been earlier. At the time my wife sold her house, Zillow’s estimated price of my condo was $484,000—$104,000 more than I received. I don’t really know why I was in such a rush to sell. Maybe it had something to do with the pandemic, my mother’s recent death, my sister and brother-in-law moving out of state, or the stress of renovating our new house. It was an emotional time for me, and I was probably searching for some stability in my life. What I’ve learned—both from Jonathan and from being married—is that good financial decisions usually come from patience, not urgency. When I feel anxious or pressured to act, I’m more likely to make a mistake. When I slow down, think things through, and listen—especially to my wife—the outcome is usually better. Managing money well isn’t about always making the right move. It’s about avoiding the wrong ones—and knowing when to wait.  Dennis Friedman retired from Boeing Satellite Systems after a 30-year career in manufacturing. Born in Ohio, Dennis is a California transplant with a bachelor’s degree in history and an MBA. A self-described “humble investor,” he likes reading historical novels and about personal finance. Follow Dennis on X @DMFrie and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Perfect Portfolio

WHAT'S THE BEST way to manage your investments? A new book titled Your Perfect Portfolio helps answer this question. I spoke this week with the author, Cullen Roche. Adam Grossman: The title is Your Perfect Portfolio with an emphasis on your Cullen Roche: I was very intentional about saying “your perfect portfolio” because everyone’s different, everyone’s unique. So I wrote this book with the intent of studying lots of different strategies and styles. I go into detail on the history behind the portfolios, why they’re popular, their origin story, then I describe the history of how they’ve performed, and the pros and cons, and who these portfolios might be good and bad for. The goal is to help people not only understand all the different options out there, but hopefully arrive at a point where they can look at certain styles or strategies and say, “This is the portfolio that’s perfect for me.” Adam: You start the book with 10 essential principles. One is that beating the market is very hard. Cullen: The numbers are daunting. Over 20 years, 95% of active investors will underperform a simple index. More importantly, beating the market is literally not a good financial goal, because typically when people are chasing returns, they’re really chasing risk. Adam: Another of your essential principles is that asset allocation is a temporal conundrum. Cullen: We talk about diversification across different asset classes, but people don’t often talk about diversification across different time horizons. Especially from a financial planning perspective, I think the difficulty is that it’s really a time problem. When you sit down with somebody and you start mapping out their financial goals, you’re really trying to make sure that people have enough money at certain times in their life. [Dartmouth College finance professor] Ken French said that risk is uncertainty of future consumption, which I think is a perfect way of summarizing it. Asset allocation, to me, is really a time-based problem. Adam: In the second part of your book, you discuss 20 different portfolio options. Let’s start with the simplest one: 100% bonds. What are the pros and cons? Cullen: I’m a huge advocate of very, very short-term instruments. I’m somewhat hypercritical of very long-duration bonds. I love the concept of matching assets to liabilities, which is what banks and pension funds do. It’s even more applicable to your average individual investor. So I try to be rigorous about matching assets and liabilities inside of portfolios, but when you get to longer-term Treasurys, they’re not very good liability matching instruments, because of the risk. Bonds can be wildly volatile instruments that, on a risk-adjusted basis, just don’t generate very good returns. Today, a 30-year Treasury bond is yielding 4.5%, and has a duration, or interest rate sensitivity level, of 18%. If you’ve got a 15-plus year time horizon, the probability of the stock market outperforming bonds is very, very high.  Adam: At the other end of the spectrum, there’s 100% stocks. If someone were 30 or 40 years old, with decades until retirement, should that person go all-in on stocks?  Cullen: You should think of your human capital as sort of a fixed income allocation. The income you’re generating from your job functions a lot like a bond, and so if you’re making $100,000 a year, you can think of that as a $1 million bond that is paying 10%. So someone who’s 20 years old, who’s got 40 years of runway, they actually have a lot more potential to take equity market risk, because they’ve basically got a 40-year bond that is going to be paying them 10% a year. It’s arguably the greatest asset that person has. They’ve got a much higher risk capacity because of that. Adam: Is age the only consideration in deciding on an allocation? Cullen: I also like to break it up by portfolio type. For a 50-year-old with a Roth IRA and a taxable account, their Roth has a very different return and risk profile than their taxable account. They’ve got the luxury in the Roth IRA of thinking of that account as maybe a multi-generational account. So that piece of your portfolio might be 100% stocks. Adam: So any given person might have more than one perfect portfolio? Cullen: Yes, you’re not just building one sort of homogeneous portfolio. You can pick and choose and have lots of different perfect portfolios of your own. Adam: Between the extremes of 100% bonds and 100% stocks, the book looks at the traditional 60-40 strategy as well as the Bogleheads three-fund portfolio. What are the pros and cons? Cullen: The three-fund portfolio is a bond aggregate fund, a domestic stock fund, and a foreign stock fund. It’s just three funds. It can be bought for close to 0% fees. It’s incredibly elegant in its simplicity. That and the 60-40 strategy have stood the test of time. But you can also argue that there are elements in them that are too simple. You don’t have a cash bucket, so if you’re going through 2022, and you were a retiree with the three-fund portfolio, you maybe didn’t feel that comfortable. You probably felt like you wanted a fourth bucket inside of that portfolio at times during that year.  Adam: After deciding on their perfect portfolio, how often should investors revisit their strategy? Cullen: Only when life changes. For longer-term goals, I don’t think you should tinker too much. You should probably just buy index funds and set it and forget it. Let them serve long-term needs. Adam: In deciding whether to change strategy, should investors respond to the news? Cullen: The financial media is incentivized to say almost hyperbolic things all the time, because they’re just trying to get your attention. And that’s counterproductive to a lot of what good, sound portfolio management requires.  Adam: Gold makes an appearance in some of the portfolios in your book. How do you think about gold? Cullen: Gold is a really tough asset to think about because it doesn’t generate cash flows. There’s no way to really value it. Some people view gold as almost like fiat currency insurance, which I don’t think is irrational. But nobody knows how to value it.  And it’s had this huge run-up. When an asset goes up a whole lot in a very short time period, that creates what I call price compression. Let’s say that gold can be reasonably expected to generate 8% per year, for instance. And let’s say it gains 70%, like it did last year. What happens, in my view, inside of an environment like that, is that you’ve taken a whole bunch of those average 8% years, and you’ve compressed them all down into one year. And what this does is creates much greater sequence of return risk going forward, where the probability is higher of the prices decompressing at some point. The classic example of price compression was the NASDAQ bubble. If you bought at the very top of the NASDAQ 100 back in 2000, you’ve generated an 8% return per year—a really good return, even if you picked the absolute worst time to buy. The kicker, of course, is that you went through 15 to 20 years of just horrific sequence of return risk inside of that portfolio. So when I see an asset booming like gold, that’s the risk. Adam: Another portfolio is the endowment model. It’s gotten a lot of discussion recently because of the potential for private funds to enter 401(k) plans. How should individual investors think about the endowment model? Cullen: This is a really hard one. You almost need your own research team to actually manage a good endowment portfolio. They’re really complex, they’re hard to replicate. And you’ve got a huge fee compounding effect inside a lot of these portfolios. For the vast majority of people, you really don’t need to try to do anything that sophisticated, because there’s other really simple models where you can get low-cost, diversified asset allocation without giving yourself brain damage trying to overcomplicate everything. Adam: In a paper you wrote in 2022, you introduced a concept you call Defined Duration Investing. Could you talk about how that works? Cullen: It’s kind of like a bucketing strategy, where I’m bucketing things into very specific time horizons, but I’m doing it in a much more personalized way, where each bucket is serving a specific financial goal and matched to a specific asset. Then you can allocate it in a much more quantified way, mapping out the expenses and liabilities. For instance, we need one year of emergency funds. That’s going into a T-bill ladder. We have a house down payment for $200K that we need to set aside. That’s going into a three-year instrument. And then you’ve got retirement goals 20 years out. We’re matching that to a 20-year type of instrument. You can start to build a rigorously, temporally structured portfolio utilizing this methodology. When I wrote the paper three years ago, I was trying to quantify the time horizon of the stock market, in order to quantify the sequence of returns risk in the market.  The thing that I always disliked about bucketing strategies was that they don’t really quantify or communicate the time horizon to people. They use these vague sorts of terms like “short-term” and “long-term.” The question I always run into is determining what long-term means. Learning to think across very specific time horizons is really useful, because it creates this clarity, matching assets to future liabilities. And I mitigate a lot of the behavioral risk in my portfolio, because I understand exactly what my asset-liability mismatch looks like, and if there is one or not.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
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Manifesto

NO. 43: IF OUR GOAL is investment growth, we should almost never buy insurance products. That means no cash-value life insurance, costly variable annuities or indexed annuities.

think

RISK VS. REWARD. To earn high returns, we need to take high risk. Over the long haul, someone with 80% stocks will likely earn far higher returns than an investor with 80% bonds. Still, it’s called risk for a reason: The extra reward isn’t guaranteed—especially if we take unnecessary risk, such as betting on a handful of stocks rather than a diversified portfolio.

humans

NO. 68: WE SPEND our days focused on goals, but achieving them rarely delivers the happiness we imagine. Instead, it’s the journey we truly enjoy. This is captured by psychologist Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi’s notion of flow. We’re often happiest when engaged in challenging activities we’re passionate about, consider important and feel we’re good at.

act

THROW STUFF OUT. Almost all of us have too many possessions. Those possessions come with an ongoing cost if, say, we rent a storage locker or we feel compelled to own a larger home. A suggestion: Make it a rule that, for every item of clothing or every tchotchke you buy, you have to give away at least one—and perhaps two—items that you already own.

Financial life planner

Manifesto

NO. 43: IF OUR GOAL is investment growth, we should almost never buy insurance products. That means no cash-value life insurance, costly variable annuities or indexed annuities.

Spotlight: Life Events

Bouncing Back

IN SUMMER 2005, my 40-year marriage officially ended. My previous world, with its hopes and dreams, was no more. My life as a single individual became the new reality. Part of the new reality was financial in nature. Previously developed long-term plans became fiction. New plans, by necessity, appeared on the drawing board.
My personal net worth had dropped by roughly 50%. I no longer owned my historic neighborhood condo. I lost two of our three cars,

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My Death Odyssey

THERE SEEM TO BE four subjects that folks are reluctant to discuss with acquaintances, friends, intimates and often themselves: money, sex, religion and death. A few months ago, I broached the subject of money, to wit, my investment history—territory well-trod by this readership.

I will now turn to the literal and figurative last item in the above lineup of forbidden subjects: death. As a physician, I have some knowledge about the death of others.

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The Unsettling Relief of Saying Goodbye

It would have been my mum’s 91st birthday this week. She passed two years ago this June after the long goodbye from the thousand small cuts of dementia. Although I experienced grief and sadness, it truly was a relief to bid my mum the final farewell after the long marathon of loss over many years. I gave a final kiss to the echo of the woman before me as the heat of life left mum’s body.

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From Half to Whole

FOUR YEARS AGO, at age 45, I got divorced. These days, divorces are equal-opportunity proceedings. Since our income streams had been roughly the same, and we didn’t have children, our assets were split 50-50. For me, that meant losing half my state pension. Along with that loss came the realization that my retirement dream was just that—a dream.
Following the divorce, my lifestyle underwent a huge upheaval. Living on my own for the first time in my adult life,

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Boglehead Conference

There is a Boglehead Conference in October.  Has anybody attended previous conferences? I’m considering attending and I’d appreciate your hearing about your experience. Did you find it valuable?
Thanks,
Jackie

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He Sold Staples

IN SPRING 1984, WHEN I was age 32, we purchased a little ranch house in need of tender loving care. That’s why I found myself in a musty crawlspace, removing clutter and installing vapor barriers.
I heard a booming voice from above. It wasn’t God telling me I should run for president. Instead, it was my new neighbor Ken. I came to the surface, dusted myself off and went inside the house.
Standing there was a 47-year-old,

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Spotlight: Friedman

Going Nowhere

REAL ESTATE PRICES in California are through the roof. The price of a smaller home in our neighborhood just sold for $80,000 above the list price. Not only is housing expensive for retirees like us, but also the cost of living in California is very high. Gas, food and taxes are a lot higher here than in other places favored by retirees, such as the Sunbelt. When I was going to school, I was never good at math. In fact, I needed a tutor to get through algebra. But I know enough to calculate that—for the price of our house—we could move to another state, buy a nice home, plus a vacation home, plus a Range Rover for the garage. It’s very tempting, especially when I climb those 18 steps on my way to bed each evening. If we asked a financial advisor, he or she would probably tell us to put the for-sale sign out front and start packing our bags. But my wife and I have no intention of moving to another state with a lower cost of living. We've learned that retirement living isn’t just about how much money and stuff we have. It’s more than that. It’s about whether you enjoy your life. That’s the question you should be asking yourself before you make any major life-changing decision. It’s the true test of whether your retirement is on the right track.
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Small Is Beautiful

I’M SAYING GOODBYE to an old friend I’ve known for 35 years. We had a special relationship that enriched my life in many ways. Although I’ll be moving to a new city and will never see my old friend again, I’ll always be grateful for our relationship, and how it helped me financially and emotionally. You see, as I put my dear little friend—a one-bedroom, 789-square-foot condominium—up for sale, I’ve come to realize how important it was to have a home that helped me live below my means. Our relationship over the years had its ups and downs. It would have been nice to have a larger home, so I could have offered out-of-town friends and family a place to stay. It would also had been more convenient to have a washer and dryer in my home, so I didn’t have to lug my laundry down to the appliances in the garage. I have to admit that moving to a larger home crossed my mind occasionally. A few years after I bought my condo, I considered purchasing a nearby 2,258-square-foot house with three bedrooms and two bathrooms. At the time, this single-family home was selling for $275,000, roughly three times more expensive than my condo. That single-family home has appreciated nicely over the years and is now listed at $1.2 million. Instead, I stuck with my condo, for which I paid $90,000 and which was recently appraised at $377,000. I ask myself, “Would I have been further ahead financially if I’d bought the larger, more expensive home?” It’s difficult to make an accurate assessment without knowing the total cost of owning each property. A bigger house comes with bigger expenses. That’s one reason I didn’t buy the house. When I looked at it, it already needed a new roof. I also didn’t need a house that size. Indeed, I have no regrets about my small, less expensive condominium. It’s benefited me in at least nine different ways: The condo meant low fixed expenses, including modest mortgage payments, property taxes, utilities and insurance. It helped me have hope for the future, because I could save for my long-term goals. It allowed me to make maximum contributions to my 401(k) plan. It also allowed me to contribute to a traditional IRA, a Roth IRA and a personal savings account. It gave me the financial leeway to build up a six-month emergency fund. It helped me live free from financial stress. It allowed me to become financially independent, including the freedom to retire at age 58. It helped me help others. I was able to quit the workforce, so I could assist my parents as a caregiver. Most important, it put an affordable roof over my head, keeping me safe and secure during difficult economic times. The important thing to remember when purchasing a home: Buy one that you can afford, so you won’t have to mortgage your financial future. That’s exactly what I did—and I’m thankful for it. Dennis Friedman retired from Boeing Satellite Systems after a 30-year career in manufacturing. Born in Ohio, Dennis is a California transplant with a bachelor's degree in history and an MBA. A self-described "humble investor," he likes reading historical novels and about personal finance. His previous articles include On My Mind, Turning the Page and Journey's End. Follow Dennis on Twitter @DMFrie. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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First Responders

MY DOCTOR TOLD ME that my white blood cell count has been trending lower for the past five years. He was concerned there was something going on with my immune system and wanted me to see an oncologist. The oncologist performed a number of tests and couldn't find anything that would have caused my condition. He wasn't concerned about my ability to fight off infections because my absolute neutrophil count was in an acceptable range. He went on to explain that neutrophils are one of the most important types of white blood cell, because they’re a first responder to any infection. They can travel through the walls of blood vessels and tissue to combat injury and illness. That got me thinking about other parts of my life—and I realized there are financial neutrophils, which also act like first responders. They come in different forms: a financial asset, an insurance policy, your spouse, a best friend. Their job is to combat those unexpected expenses that threaten your financial security. To do this, they need to be readily available, so you can deploy them at a moment’s notice. According to a 2015 report by the Pew Charitable Trusts, 60% of households experienced one or more financial shocks over the prior 12 months, with the most expensive shock typically costing $2,000. Pew defines a financial shock as an unexpected expense, such as a job loss, injury, illness, death, or a major auto or home expense. The best first responder against a job loss, as well as an unexpected household or auto expense, would be a six-month cash emergency fund that would cover your living expenses. This would allow you time to find another job and pay for any major repairs. If necessary, you can also use money from a Roth IRA, because you can withdraw your contributions at any time without paying taxes or penalties. The Kaiser Family Foundation found that 26% of U.S. adults had difficulty paying their medical bills over the prior 12 months. This number includes people who have health insurance. High medical expenses can lead to financial bankruptcy. The best first responders against an injury or illness would be a combination of health insurance, a health savings account, disability insurance and a six-month cash emergency fund. Here are some other first responders you might deploy when unexpected expenses hit: Term life insurance offers low-cost financial protection, should your spouse or significant other die. Home and auto insurance can help protect you from natural disasters, such as floods, fire, earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes. A personal umbrella liability policy provides added protection against legal claims made against you. A home equity line of credit and a credit card with an available balance can help cover major expenses when you’re short on cash. And don't forget family and friends. They can be a valuable resource in protecting you from unexpected costs. According to a Wall Street Journal article, "an estimated 34.2 million people provide unpaid care to those 50 and older. These caregivers, about 95% family, and long the backbone of the nation's long-term care system, provide an estimated $500 billion worth of free care annually." Having family and friends nearby, who are willing to provide assistance at times of need, can save you thousands of dollars. First responders are not intended to grow your portfolio, as a stock would.  Instead, they protect you from sacrificing your financial future for an unexpected major expense. They can also help you avoid bankruptcy. They make you feel safe and secure, offering invaluable peace of mind. Dennis Friedman retired at age 58 from Boeing Aerospace Company. He enjoys reading and writing about personal finance. His previous articles include Truth Be Told, Mind Games and Looking Forward. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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Worth the Wait

IF SOMEONE ASKS ME what my favorite day is, I’d have to say the second Wednesday of the month. That’s when my Social Security check gets deposited into my checking account. I’ve received three checks so far and each one has been a joy. The experts might be right when they say retirees who have predictable income are happier. At age 70, I feel like a little boy who just got his first bicycle. I waited a long time for my first check—and it was well worth it: I now have the best income annuity you can own. Compared to annuities sold by insurance companies, Social Security has better inflation protection, it’s taxed less heavily and there’s less credit risk. Because I waited until 70, my check is large enough to cover our overhead costs. That larger check reduces the risk that our investment portfolio will run out prematurely. We can spend more freely knowing we have a financial backstop in my larger Social Security check. Delaying my benefits has lowered our taxable income. While I waited to claim Social Security, I was able to do larger Roth conversions, and those mean I’ll have smaller required minimum distributions starting at age 72. If I die tomorrow, you could argue that I made the wrong decision in delaying Social Security—and you might be right, though my wife will get my benefit as a survivor benefit. On top of that, from a financial point of view, dying tomorrow isn’t my big concern. Instead, what would be more worrisome to me is watching our savings dwindle in our later years—and be left with a smaller Social Security check to fall back on.
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Leap of Faith

SOME PEOPLE SAY I eat like a dog. I eat the same food everyday. For breakfast, I have egg whites with mushrooms on a whole wheat tortilla, and oatmeal with fruit and almonds. For lunch, I have a salad of tomatoes, cucumbers, carrots, avocado and baby spring mixed lettuce, and usually a nonfat bean and rice burrito.  For dinner, I have vegetables like broccoli, cauliflower, spinach and squash with fish or poultry. When I feel adventurous, I might have a turkey burger with a little mayonnaise. My lifestyle generally is just as disciplined as my eating habits. Some people might describe it as plain and boring. I live in the same small condo I bought more than 30 years ago. I drive a 2010 Ford Fusion, which I plan on keeping until it becomes too costly to repair. I exercise every morning, usually at the same gym. I go to bed every night at 9 p.m. and wake up every morning at 4 a.m. Every day, I listen to the same music from the 1960s. As you can see, I don't like change and I'm very disciplined in how I live my life. The question I keep asking myself is, why can’t I have the same discipline when it comes to investing? Last year, I wrote in a blog about the four simple investing rules I follow. Rule No. 4 says I control my emotions by tuning out the noise and rule No. 3 says I don’t make significant changes to my portfolio. Lately, I have done just the opposite. In 2017, I lowered my stock position from roughly 50% to 25%, plus I made changes in the mutual funds I own. At the time I made these changes, I was losing confidence in the sustainability of the bull market and wanted to reduce my risk. Tomorrow, I will probably have reasons I should make further changes to my portfolio. Why do I have so little discipline when it comes to investing? I’ve concluded I have a difficult time dealing with things in my life that aren’t black and white. For instance, I feel pretty confident the food I eat are nutritious and are beneficial to my health. But when it comes to investing, matters aren’t so black and white. What the stock or bond market is going to do tomorrow or 10 years from now is pretty much anyone's guess. Investing requires faith that what you’re doing today will lead to a successful outcome. Maybe what I need is a little faith. In the absence of that faith, I’m falling back on a friend. To bring more discipline to my investment decisions, I decided to share my portfolio with a close friend—and to confide in her next time I get the urge to make major portfolio changes. Dennis Friedman retired at age 58 from Boeing Aerospace Company. He enjoys reading and writing about personal finance. His previous blog was Lessons Learned. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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Paying Them to Worry

EVERY SO OFTEN, I see comments on social media about Vanguard Group’s Personal Advisor Services (PAS). One person posted that he’d talked to a growing number of people who quit PAS. There was no particular reason given for why they left. But I don’t doubt it. I’m a PAS client. I’ve often thought about terminating my relationship. I’ve been with PAS since 2018. When I first joined, the PAS advisors made a few changes to my investment portfolio. They increased my stock asset allocation by about 12%. In my bond portfolio, they increased my exposure to corporate bonds by about 30%. Have I benefited from these changes? Yes. They added enough value to justify the 0.3% advisory fee. I now ask myself: What value can they provide over the next three years? Why don’t I take over the management of the portfolio they created? All I have to do is rebalance it every so often. My expenses would be just 0.06% of assets, versus a total of 0.36% today. That would be quite a savings. But life is not always that simple. If I was in the accumulation stage, I’d be managing my own money. But I’m not. I’ll be 71 this year. This is the time when my wife and I are planning to make significant withdrawals from our portfolio. We’re planning to do a lot of traveling in the next three years. If COVID is under control, we’ll spend most of our time on the road. We also want to buy a new vehicle, plus do some more work on the house. What do I want from my PAS advisor over the next three years? A withdrawal plan for these large expenditures. I would also like some emotional support, such as a periodic phone conversation reassuring me that these large withdrawals won’t jeopardize our financial security. I don’t want to be worrying about money—not while I’m trying to enjoy my retirement. Three years from now, I want to relax in my hotel room, log on to my PAS account and still see that big green round circle that reads: “>99% likelihood of success.”
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