Prophets and Losses
John Goodell | Jul 26, 2021
OFTEN WRONG, never in doubt. That describes many economic prognosticators. A rational response: Treat their predictions like hazardous waste—handle with caution, or better yet, don’t handle at all. Among the countless examples, consider newsletter writer Harry Dent. Armed with a Harvard MBA, Dent makes market predictions that are fantastic and frequently wrong. In late April and more recently in June, he predicted that the market would crash, adding that if he’s wrong, he would quit his job. I’m not holding my breath. In 1998, Dent published The Roaring 2000s, predicting that the decade was a sure winner. It turned out to be the worst investing decade of my lifetime—by a significant margin. Dent’s The Great Depression Ahead was published in 2009, at the start of the longest bull market in history. In 2011, he doubled down, publishing The Great Crash Ahead. In 2016, Dent wrote The Sale of a Lifetime: How the Great Bubble Bust of 2017 Can Make You Rich. Such predictions may seem foolish. But it’s all about marketing. Nothing gets eyeballs like doom-and-gloom predictions. Enter “stock market crash” on YouTube and compare the number of views for videos predicting financial disaster to others from the same analyst. You’ll invariably find many more views of the crash videos. They cater to the part of our brains that fixates on fear—a learned survival mechanism from our hunter-gatherer ancestors. But the fact is, nobody knows what the future holds for the financial markets.
Read more » Do It Anyway
John Goodell | Nov 12, 2021
SIX YEARS AGO, a colleague came into my office, looking concerned. He asked if I could speak with a client who was suffering from dementia. At the time, I was the Army’s attorney in charge of legal assistance at Fort Hood, Texas. One of the services we provided was drafting wills for servicemembers, veterans and their families. For our legal office, my policy was that I’d always be the person to deliver bad news. Every attorney who has practiced estate planning long enough has experienced what I was about to go through. But I’ve come to realize that no one is truly prepared for that first time. I certainly wasn’t. As I walked in and greeted the client, nothing seemed amiss. He was elderly and genial. When I asked him whether he owned his home and where he lived, reasonable questions to ascertain whether he was mentally competent to execute a will, I realized something was off. We sat awkwardly for a few minutes before the gentleman told me he couldn’t remember. Next came the tough conversation: informing him and his family, who had driven him to the appointment, that they wouldn’t be able to get a will, health care power of attorney and living will because he lacked the necessary mental ability. I’ll never forget that my first such conversation involved a kind, elderly man who wore a subtle pin on his sport coat that indicated he’d received the Silver Star for heroism in combat. That only made the conversation harder. He had sacrificed so much for the country, and yet the rules of my profession forbade me from helping. Instead, I felt utterly helpless. [xyz-ihs snippet="Mobile-Subscribe"] This hero left my office confused and sad. I’ve thought of him and our conversation often in the years since. A few…
Read more » Income Isn’t Wealth
John Goodell | Apr 15, 2020
MY WIFE AND I RECENTLY read The Ant and the Grasshopper, from Aesop’s Fables, to our youngest daughter. If you recall, the grasshopper mocks the ant for spending all his free time amassing food. But when winter comes, the starving grasshopper begs for assistance—and the ant refuses. Lately, I’ve been struck by the irony of this parable. As we celebrate the role of physicians in keeping us all safe from a virus, that same virus is slowly starving physicians of their salaries. How am I acutely aware of this bizarre conundrum? I’m married to a family physician. Before you break out the world’s tiniest violin, allow me to paint a picture of what I and others are witnessing across the nation. The economics are startling, even if the personal finance lessons are a well-worn, cautionary tale. Since this virus’s arrival on our shores, more or less all of us are now under some kind of quarantine, except essential workers. As hospitals have halted their elective procedures to free up bed space and medical equipment, their revenue has taken a massive hit. In addition, many outpatient clinics have closed to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Our once-booming economy has now ground to a halt—even for the medical field. Those clinics that remain open have seen a dramatic decline in patients, who are presumably afraid they’ll get the virus by visiting the doctor. I went to my doctor’s office recently. It was a ghost town. It’s usually packed with people, but there were no other patients the entire time I was there. Many offices, including my wife’s, have gone to virtual medicine via video platforms, which has helped alleviate—but not eliminate—the financial burden. Keep in mind that these same doctors are on standby if or when hospitals become overwhelmed. They will begin seeing patients…
Read more » Average Is Great
John Goodell | Apr 8, 2020
I RECENTLY DISCUSSED retirement plans with my old college roommate, Joe, who now runs his own business. As we wrapped up the conversation, Joe asked if I had any book recommendations. I told him I was about to start Good to Great, the management book by Jim Collins. It’s been a huge bestseller, with four million copies sold. Joe immediately shot back, “John, that book demonstrates precisely why low-cost index funds have to be the answer for most retirement plans. Read it and you’ll see what I mean.” Initially, I thought Joe was talking about fees, but he wasn’t. Instead, he was referring to the other major reason to own low-cost index funds: diversification. In seeking to find the best companies—those that go from good to great—Collins had uncovered some general truths about what constitutes the best leaders for a business organization. Collins posits that these leaders end up leaving their companies enduringly better. Did they? Here are some of the great companies that Collins identified: Circuit City, which went bankrupt in 2008, in part because of the rise of Amazon and online shopping. Fannie Mae, which effectively imploded during the Great Recession, thanks to bad lending. Wells Fargo, which has been mired in the fallout from its creation of millions of sham customer accounts. Clearly, time has proved how difficult it is for the great to stay great—or even good in some cases. To be fair, Collins profiles some companies that haven’t performed nearly so poorly, such as Nucor, Abbott Labs, Kimberly-Clark, Kroger and Walgreens (though the last two have also struggled because of online shopping and the behemoth that is Amazon). Changes in business models, and disruption caused by low-cost competitors and new technology, happen to the best of companies. Everyday investors can’t reliably predict these things. Even professional money…
Read more » Stay Positive
John Goodell | May 24, 2022
AMONG THE AREAS of law that have made me miserable over 16 years of practice, it’s the adversarial roles that have made me most miserable. My experience in labor and employment law has been particularly difficult because the interaction with opposing counsel is usually contentious, each side compelled to zealously advocate for their position. Almost any type of litigation is a zero-sum game. One side wins, the other loses. Because the outcome is never guaranteed, those involved often engage in cut-throat, zero-sum behavior. I’ve slowly come to realize that the financial world has a similar dynamic. Short-term trading usually delivers zero-sum outcomes, while longer-term investing offers positive-sum results. The game that investors choose to play determines the outcome they receive. In a zero-sum game, rational actors seeking the greatest gain for themselves will necessarily do so at the expense of other actors. Trading amounts to a zero-sum game. Buyers hope to get a better deal at the expense of sellers, and vice versa. By contrast, in positive-sum games, the overall pie is growing, so there are more spoils for everyone to share. Positive-sum games can be win-win situations. Investing for the long term in a broad market index fund, and thereby avoiding the risks inherent in individual stocks, is a positive-sum game because markets move up over time—and all investors can potentially win. Moreover, the longer investors hold a diverse basket of stocks, the greater the likelihood that the engine of capitalism will produce a happy outcome. An added bonus: Investors can avoid the nasty “winner takes all” mentality that many short-term traders consciously or subconsciously have. For my own mental health, I prefer to play positive-sum games—whether it’s in my professional life or when investing.
Read more » Saving Their Souls
John Goodell | Feb 18, 2022
EVERY FALL AT LAW schools across America, a process occurs called on-campus interviewing, or OCI, as it’s commonly known. The more elite the law school, the more prestigious the crop of law firms that visit, each offering the promise of large salaries to brilliant, mostly young minds. Only students with excellent grades or editorial positions on the school’s law review are selected to interview for summer internships. Like nearly all graduate schools, law school comes with an expensive price tag, leaving many students with large amounts of debt. Because law students are nearly always type-A personalities and because law firm recruiting is a zero-sum game—there are many more applicants than spots, with even fewer spots at prestigious, well-paying firms—law school tends to engender extreme competitiveness and jealousy. In the pre-internet era, there were legendary stories of pages torn from books to thwart other students’ success. In the 15 years since I graduated from law school, I’ve noticed an interesting trend. Very few of my peers who began as law firm associates stayed to make partner. Many left to become in-house counsel at corporations. Others became law professors, government attorneys and judges. Long hours, high pressure and unfulfilling work lead many attorneys to tap out of the law firm life, and opt instead for careers that are much less stressful and arguably more rewarding. Law school is by no means the only graduate school where the most intelligent alumni chase prestige and money, only to end up mired in soul-sucking work. Many top-tier business school graduates head to Wall Street. The best medical students often become plastic surgeons. Some of our brightest computer science minds create technology that negatively impacts countless lives. A lot of attention is paid to where someone goes to graduate school and what they do after graduation.…
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