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First Job, Lasting Impact

"A little bit of Hollywood trivia for any film buffs at HumbleDollar: The Los Angeles intersection where the drugstore and McDonalds sit is where Henry Fonda’s Tom Joad is seen walking at the start of The Grapes of Wrath."
- D.J.
Read more »

Take a Look In the Mirror

"Agreed Dan. My perspective on this usually relates to the good fortune that I have had. Born into a stable, middle class family in Australia, and then provided the opportunity for a university education. Yeah, I worked pretty hard and perhaps made a few good decisions along the way, but my initial good luck can't be ignored, particularly if I feel inclined to judge others."
- greg_j_tomamichel
Read more »

Writing a Book in Retirement: The Good, the Hard, and the Surprisingly Meaningful

"Cindy had a publisher for a while, but is now basically self published. https://cindytomamichel.com/"
- greg_j_tomamichel
Read more »

Retirement Accounts

I WAS SCROLLING through social media recently and saw somebody dismiss retirement accounts as “paper wealth.” The argument was familiar: Your money is locked away and you’re waiting for permission to access it.

Post Example

There’s a grain of truth here. Retirement accounts do come with rules. But much of the discussion online ignores how flexible these accounts actually are. More important, it ignores the enormous tax advantages.

Most people today will likely live well beyond age 59½. Many will spend two or three decades in retirement. Even if somebody retires early, they’ll still need assets later in life.

That’s why ignoring retirement accounts at age 30 often isn’t wise. You could end up giving away 30 or 40 years of tax-advantaged compounding.

It also isn’t an all-or-nothing decision. We can use taxable brokerage accounts, Roth IRAs and 401(k)s together. Each account serves a different purpose.

Retirement accounts also provide rebalancing flexibility that taxable accounts don’t.

Inside a Traditional or Roth IRA, investors can rebalance portfolios without triggering capital gains taxes. Somebody who wants less stock market exposure can freely sell shares and buy bonds, Treasurys or other funds without generating an immediate tax bill. That matters over long periods of time.

The other misconception is that retirement accounts are completely inaccessible until age 59½. 

Let's talk about Rule 72(t), also called Substantially Equal Periodic Payments, or SEPP. This IRS rule allows penalty-free withdrawals before age 59½ if specific requirements are followed.

Using online 72(t) calculators, a $500,000 retirement account could potentially generate annual withdrawals of roughly $30,000 while avoiding the normal 10% early-withdrawal penalty:

72(t) calculator

The payments must continue for a required period and the IRS rules are strict. Still, the broader point remains: There are legal ways to access retirement funds earlier than many people realize.

The Rule of 55 is another example.

If you leave your employer during or after the year you turn 55, you can often withdraw money from that employer’s 401(k) without the normal 10% penalty. Again, the money is not completely locked away until 60.

Roth IRAs may also be flexible. Contributions can be withdrawn anytime tax- and penalty-free because taxes were already paid before the money went into the account.

That doesn’t mean people should tap retirement accounts early. But accessibility is very different from impossibility.

Roth IRAs also happen to be among the most powerful wealth building tools available.

Qualified withdrawals are tax-free. Dividends compound without yearly tax bills. Investors can buy and sell investments inside the account without triggering taxable events.

You may remember a famous example about Peter Thiel. According to reporting by ProPublica, Thiel reportedly grew a Roth IRA from $2,000 to more than $5 billion between 1999 and now. He turns 59½ in 2027, meaning those withdrawals could potentially be tax-free. Imagine if he had decided to skip retirement accounts because he wanted to “live now.”

Employer matches are another point often ignored online. Skipping a 401(k) match can be one of the costliest financial mistakes people make.

Suppose an employer offers a dollar-for-dollar match on the first 3% of salary contributed to a 401(k). Before the investments even grow, that’s effectively an immediate 100% return.

Very few opportunities offer that kind of risk-adjusted benefit.

In fact, somebody could theoretically contribute, collect the employer match, later withdraw the money, pay ordinary income taxes plus the 10% penalty, and still potentially come out ahead versus investing only through a taxable brokerage account with no match.

The tax advantages extend beyond employer matches.

Inside retirement accounts:

  • Dividends can compound without annual tax drag
  • Investors can rebalance without triggering taxable events
  • Capital gains taxes are deferred or eliminated, depending on the account type

Compare that with a taxable brokerage account, where dividends may create yearly tax bills and selling appreciated shares can trigger capital gains taxes.

Retirement accounts can also create opportunities for tax arbitrage.

Somebody contributing while in the 22% or 24% marginal federal tax bracket today might eventually withdraw money while in the 10% or 12% bracket during retirement.

State taxes can widen the advantage even more. Some states provide tax deductions on retirement contributions while later taxing retirement withdrawals lightly or not at all.

Early retirees often use Roth conversion ladders as well.

The process generally works like this:

  • Move money from a Traditional IRA or 401(k) into a Roth IRA
  • Pay taxes on the converted amount
  • Wait five years
  • Withdraw the converted funds penalty-free

Like Rule 72(t), there are strict rules involved. But these strategies exist because retirement accounts were never designed to be prison cells.

The larger point is that retirement planning should involve multiple tools working together. Taxable brokerage accounts provide flexibility. Roth IRAs provide tax-free growth. Traditional retirement accounts can reduce taxes during high-earning years.

None of these accounts are perfect by themselves. Together, however, they can create an extremely efficient system for building long-term wealth.

That’s why describing retirement accounts as “paper wealth” misses the bigger picture.

 

Bogdan Sheremeta is a licensed CPA based in Illinois with experience at Deloitte and a Fortune 200 multinational.  
Read more »

Resilient Investing

BACK IN 2010, at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, a shareholder challenged Warren Buffett. Noting that shares of motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson had nearly tripled over the prior year, he asked Buffett why he had chosen to buy the company’s bonds rather than its stock. Buffett’s reply was a two-minute masterclass in how to think about investments. It’s worth walking through it point by point. To start, Buffett acknowledged that hindsight can be cruel. “I might have asked the same question,” he said. But then he reminded the investor that we should never judge an investment decision solely based on its result. Instead, he emphasized the importance of a sound decision-making process. He then detailed how he thought about the Harley decision at the time. Buffett started at a high level, with a discussion of asset allocation, and here he made a counterintuitive argument. Many of Berkshire Hathaway’s liabilities extended out more than 50 years, he said, and with such a long time horizon, it might seem like the company could afford to take an almost unlimited amount of risk in the stock market. Buffett acknowledged that was indeed the case. But, he said, “we would never have all our money in stocks,” even if, on paper, it seemed like the best choice. Buffett and his partner, Charlie Munger, still chose to hold substantial amounts in bonds, even if that meant giving up potential gains. Why? Buffett went on to explain why holding bonds made sense even in the absence of any clear need. For starters, bonds provide flexibility during stock market downturns. And since bear markets always arrive without notice, and can last multiple years, it makes sense to hold bonds, more or less, at all times. Perhaps not surprisingly, Buffett once mentioned that a trust he’d established for his family was similarly structured, with 10% in bonds, even though it had a long time horizon and could theoretically afford to be entirely in stocks. Coming back to the Harley-Davidson decision, Buffett referenced his mentor, Benjamin Graham. In his book Security Analysis, he had explained the relative benefits of “junior” and “senior” securities. “Junior securities,” Buffett said, “usually do better, but you’re going to sleep better with the senior securities.” What did he mean by junior and senior? In a typical corporate structure, where a company has issued both bonds and stocks, bondholders would have first claim on the company’s assets if it went into distress. Stockholders, on the other hand, would be further back in line. For that reason, bonds are said to be senior, while stocks are junior. It’s an important distinction. Because of this structure, bonds are inherently more secure than stocks. They are essentially IOUs. But also because of that structure, bonds will normally have lower returns than stocks. Companies know they don’t have to offer as much in the way of interest to bondholders because of their more senior position. This is the technical reason why, all things being equal, bonds offer both lower risk and lower returns than stocks. Buffett acknowledged that Harley-Davidson was a beloved company. “I kind of like a company where your customers tattoo your name on their chest.” Still, Buffett said, there were no guarantees. Even great companies can run into trouble. It was for this reason, Buffett said, that buying Harley-Davidson’s bonds was a relatively easy decision. “I knew enough to lend them money. I didn’t know enough to buy [the stock].” That’s because buying the stock would have required a much more detailed analysis of the motorcycle market, including an understanding of consumer trends and the effects of competition on Harley’s profit margins. Buying the company’s bonds, on the other hand, “was a very simple decision. It was just a question of, are they going to go broke or not?”  When we choose to buy bonds, in other words, we’re intentionally choosing the slow lane, but it’s for a reason: because bonds offer a level of certainty that stocks can never provide. And because of that certainty, we shouldn’t feel badly when bonds deliver meager returns. It’s by design. Buffett wrapped up the discussion acknowledging that if he’d opted for Harley’s stock, he would have made far more money for Berkshire shareholders. But that wasn’t the right yardstick, he argued. “We are running this place so that it can stand anything.” That, I think, is the most important thing we can take away from this story. The investment industry spends a lot of time talking about performance—and specifically, about outperformance. Of course, we all want to see our investments grow, but what’s most important, in my view, is that your portfolio be resilient enough to “stand anything.” One of the benefits of stock market downturns is that they give us an opportunity to stress test our emotional response to the market. After a roughly 10% downturn earlier this year, stocks are back at all-time highs, so this is a good time to take the temperature of your portfolio. If you lost some sleep during the downturn this spring, or the one we experienced last spring, this might be a good time to shift some of your portfolio to more senior, more secure, securities. If, on the other hand, you barely even noticed these downturns, that’s important information as well. Investing, in other words, isn’t just about numbers. Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Direct Indexing Anyone?

"DI is a lot more work than most want to spend on managing their finances, especially in retirement. Way too complex to take into late retirement. A direct investor is likely overfunded or will be, you have better uses of your time unless finances is your hobby. DI will not make or break a retirement portfolio, an optimization strategy at best."
- AnthonyClan
Read more »

GLP1 Access for Only a $50 Copay?

"David, that sounds like a truly awful affliction, I hope the medication brings you some relief and it shows there's always more than one side to an issue beyond the obvious. My own situation is a different kind of battle: I'm rarely hungry these days. I've found an unlikely workaround, though. When I eat out with my ten-year-old grandson, we've developed a foolproof system — he orders what I want from the kids' menu, I order what he wants from the adult menu, and then we swap plates. He gets his feast, I get my smaller portion, and the waiter gets a story to tell when he gets home."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Starting Up – Part 2

"Excellent article Andrew. You sure hit that nail on the head, All my jobs for delivery boy, to stock clerk, to COOP student, was not so much the job itself, but the people from every background. I learned to Observe people. I think that is what college does today."
- William Dorner
Read more »

The Nerf Gun Incident: Sunk Costs, Suppressing Fire and the Glassblower

"David, sunk cost is a tricky beast. I decided to keep my car for an extra year mainly due to the cost of a clutch replacement…I want to make sure I get my money's worth out of it."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Money and Me by Jonathan Clements

"Thanks for the info, Jonathan was the BEST, and a genius of finance."
- William Dorner
Read more »

Help for divorcing daughter

"Interesting. I’ve been retired 16 years, but last year I had a now retired former union committee member e-mail asking me to verify something I had promised the union back in 2000 or so."
- R Quinn
Read more »

The Rent is Too Damn High!

"At my place, we have a fleet of trucks. We need some new vans - our current vans are pre-2010 - and we're trying to scrounge up some used vans that won't cost much. The trucks and backhoe are newish, but we had to take 7-year financing on them, and we're paying $70K a year in loan payments."
- Ormode
Read more »

First Job, Lasting Impact

"A little bit of Hollywood trivia for any film buffs at HumbleDollar: The Los Angeles intersection where the drugstore and McDonalds sit is where Henry Fonda’s Tom Joad is seen walking at the start of The Grapes of Wrath."
- D.J.
Read more »

Take a Look In the Mirror

"Agreed Dan. My perspective on this usually relates to the good fortune that I have had. Born into a stable, middle class family in Australia, and then provided the opportunity for a university education. Yeah, I worked pretty hard and perhaps made a few good decisions along the way, but my initial good luck can't be ignored, particularly if I feel inclined to judge others."
- greg_j_tomamichel
Read more »

Writing a Book in Retirement: The Good, the Hard, and the Surprisingly Meaningful

"Cindy had a publisher for a while, but is now basically self published. https://cindytomamichel.com/"
- greg_j_tomamichel
Read more »

Retirement Accounts

I WAS SCROLLING through social media recently and saw somebody dismiss retirement accounts as “paper wealth.” The argument was familiar: Your money is locked away and you’re waiting for permission to access it.

Post Example

There’s a grain of truth here. Retirement accounts do come with rules. But much of the discussion online ignores how flexible these accounts actually are. More important, it ignores the enormous tax advantages.

Most people today will likely live well beyond age 59½. Many will spend two or three decades in retirement. Even if somebody retires early, they’ll still need assets later in life.

That’s why ignoring retirement accounts at age 30 often isn’t wise. You could end up giving away 30 or 40 years of tax-advantaged compounding.

It also isn’t an all-or-nothing decision. We can use taxable brokerage accounts, Roth IRAs and 401(k)s together. Each account serves a different purpose.

Retirement accounts also provide rebalancing flexibility that taxable accounts don’t.

Inside a Traditional or Roth IRA, investors can rebalance portfolios without triggering capital gains taxes. Somebody who wants less stock market exposure can freely sell shares and buy bonds, Treasurys or other funds without generating an immediate tax bill. That matters over long periods of time.

The other misconception is that retirement accounts are completely inaccessible until age 59½. 

Let's talk about Rule 72(t), also called Substantially Equal Periodic Payments, or SEPP. This IRS rule allows penalty-free withdrawals before age 59½ if specific requirements are followed.

Using online 72(t) calculators, a $500,000 retirement account could potentially generate annual withdrawals of roughly $30,000 while avoiding the normal 10% early-withdrawal penalty:

72(t) calculator

The payments must continue for a required period and the IRS rules are strict. Still, the broader point remains: There are legal ways to access retirement funds earlier than many people realize.

The Rule of 55 is another example.

If you leave your employer during or after the year you turn 55, you can often withdraw money from that employer’s 401(k) without the normal 10% penalty. Again, the money is not completely locked away until 60.

Roth IRAs may also be flexible. Contributions can be withdrawn anytime tax- and penalty-free because taxes were already paid before the money went into the account.

That doesn’t mean people should tap retirement accounts early. But accessibility is very different from impossibility.

Roth IRAs also happen to be among the most powerful wealth building tools available.

Qualified withdrawals are tax-free. Dividends compound without yearly tax bills. Investors can buy and sell investments inside the account without triggering taxable events.

You may remember a famous example about Peter Thiel. According to reporting by ProPublica, Thiel reportedly grew a Roth IRA from $2,000 to more than $5 billion between 1999 and now. He turns 59½ in 2027, meaning those withdrawals could potentially be tax-free. Imagine if he had decided to skip retirement accounts because he wanted to “live now.”

Employer matches are another point often ignored online. Skipping a 401(k) match can be one of the costliest financial mistakes people make.

Suppose an employer offers a dollar-for-dollar match on the first 3% of salary contributed to a 401(k). Before the investments even grow, that’s effectively an immediate 100% return.

Very few opportunities offer that kind of risk-adjusted benefit.

In fact, somebody could theoretically contribute, collect the employer match, later withdraw the money, pay ordinary income taxes plus the 10% penalty, and still potentially come out ahead versus investing only through a taxable brokerage account with no match.

The tax advantages extend beyond employer matches.

Inside retirement accounts:

  • Dividends can compound without annual tax drag
  • Investors can rebalance without triggering taxable events
  • Capital gains taxes are deferred or eliminated, depending on the account type

Compare that with a taxable brokerage account, where dividends may create yearly tax bills and selling appreciated shares can trigger capital gains taxes.

Retirement accounts can also create opportunities for tax arbitrage.

Somebody contributing while in the 22% or 24% marginal federal tax bracket today might eventually withdraw money while in the 10% or 12% bracket during retirement.

State taxes can widen the advantage even more. Some states provide tax deductions on retirement contributions while later taxing retirement withdrawals lightly or not at all.

Early retirees often use Roth conversion ladders as well.

The process generally works like this:

  • Move money from a Traditional IRA or 401(k) into a Roth IRA
  • Pay taxes on the converted amount
  • Wait five years
  • Withdraw the converted funds penalty-free

Like Rule 72(t), there are strict rules involved. But these strategies exist because retirement accounts were never designed to be prison cells.

The larger point is that retirement planning should involve multiple tools working together. Taxable brokerage accounts provide flexibility. Roth IRAs provide tax-free growth. Traditional retirement accounts can reduce taxes during high-earning years.

None of these accounts are perfect by themselves. Together, however, they can create an extremely efficient system for building long-term wealth.

That’s why describing retirement accounts as “paper wealth” misses the bigger picture.

 

Bogdan Sheremeta is a licensed CPA based in Illinois with experience at Deloitte and a Fortune 200 multinational.  
Read more »

Resilient Investing

BACK IN 2010, at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, a shareholder challenged Warren Buffett. Noting that shares of motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson had nearly tripled over the prior year, he asked Buffett why he had chosen to buy the company’s bonds rather than its stock. Buffett’s reply was a two-minute masterclass in how to think about investments. It’s worth walking through it point by point. To start, Buffett acknowledged that hindsight can be cruel. “I might have asked the same question,” he said. But then he reminded the investor that we should never judge an investment decision solely based on its result. Instead, he emphasized the importance of a sound decision-making process. He then detailed how he thought about the Harley decision at the time. Buffett started at a high level, with a discussion of asset allocation, and here he made a counterintuitive argument. Many of Berkshire Hathaway’s liabilities extended out more than 50 years, he said, and with such a long time horizon, it might seem like the company could afford to take an almost unlimited amount of risk in the stock market. Buffett acknowledged that was indeed the case. But, he said, “we would never have all our money in stocks,” even if, on paper, it seemed like the best choice. Buffett and his partner, Charlie Munger, still chose to hold substantial amounts in bonds, even if that meant giving up potential gains. Why? Buffett went on to explain why holding bonds made sense even in the absence of any clear need. For starters, bonds provide flexibility during stock market downturns. And since bear markets always arrive without notice, and can last multiple years, it makes sense to hold bonds, more or less, at all times. Perhaps not surprisingly, Buffett once mentioned that a trust he’d established for his family was similarly structured, with 10% in bonds, even though it had a long time horizon and could theoretically afford to be entirely in stocks. Coming back to the Harley-Davidson decision, Buffett referenced his mentor, Benjamin Graham. In his book Security Analysis, he had explained the relative benefits of “junior” and “senior” securities. “Junior securities,” Buffett said, “usually do better, but you’re going to sleep better with the senior securities.” What did he mean by junior and senior? In a typical corporate structure, where a company has issued both bonds and stocks, bondholders would have first claim on the company’s assets if it went into distress. Stockholders, on the other hand, would be further back in line. For that reason, bonds are said to be senior, while stocks are junior. It’s an important distinction. Because of this structure, bonds are inherently more secure than stocks. They are essentially IOUs. But also because of that structure, bonds will normally have lower returns than stocks. Companies know they don’t have to offer as much in the way of interest to bondholders because of their more senior position. This is the technical reason why, all things being equal, bonds offer both lower risk and lower returns than stocks. Buffett acknowledged that Harley-Davidson was a beloved company. “I kind of like a company where your customers tattoo your name on their chest.” Still, Buffett said, there were no guarantees. Even great companies can run into trouble. It was for this reason, Buffett said, that buying Harley-Davidson’s bonds was a relatively easy decision. “I knew enough to lend them money. I didn’t know enough to buy [the stock].” That’s because buying the stock would have required a much more detailed analysis of the motorcycle market, including an understanding of consumer trends and the effects of competition on Harley’s profit margins. Buying the company’s bonds, on the other hand, “was a very simple decision. It was just a question of, are they going to go broke or not?”  When we choose to buy bonds, in other words, we’re intentionally choosing the slow lane, but it’s for a reason: because bonds offer a level of certainty that stocks can never provide. And because of that certainty, we shouldn’t feel badly when bonds deliver meager returns. It’s by design. Buffett wrapped up the discussion acknowledging that if he’d opted for Harley’s stock, he would have made far more money for Berkshire shareholders. But that wasn’t the right yardstick, he argued. “We are running this place so that it can stand anything.” That, I think, is the most important thing we can take away from this story. The investment industry spends a lot of time talking about performance—and specifically, about outperformance. Of course, we all want to see our investments grow, but what’s most important, in my view, is that your portfolio be resilient enough to “stand anything.” One of the benefits of stock market downturns is that they give us an opportunity to stress test our emotional response to the market. After a roughly 10% downturn earlier this year, stocks are back at all-time highs, so this is a good time to take the temperature of your portfolio. If you lost some sleep during the downturn this spring, or the one we experienced last spring, this might be a good time to shift some of your portfolio to more senior, more secure, securities. If, on the other hand, you barely even noticed these downturns, that’s important information as well. Investing, in other words, isn’t just about numbers. Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Direct Indexing Anyone?

"DI is a lot more work than most want to spend on managing their finances, especially in retirement. Way too complex to take into late retirement. A direct investor is likely overfunded or will be, you have better uses of your time unless finances is your hobby. DI will not make or break a retirement portfolio, an optimization strategy at best."
- AnthonyClan
Read more »

GLP1 Access for Only a $50 Copay?

"David, that sounds like a truly awful affliction, I hope the medication brings you some relief and it shows there's always more than one side to an issue beyond the obvious. My own situation is a different kind of battle: I'm rarely hungry these days. I've found an unlikely workaround, though. When I eat out with my ten-year-old grandson, we've developed a foolproof system — he orders what I want from the kids' menu, I order what he wants from the adult menu, and then we swap plates. He gets his feast, I get my smaller portion, and the waiter gets a story to tell when he gets home."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Starting Up – Part 2

"Excellent article Andrew. You sure hit that nail on the head, All my jobs for delivery boy, to stock clerk, to COOP student, was not so much the job itself, but the people from every background. I learned to Observe people. I think that is what college does today."
- William Dorner
Read more »

The Nerf Gun Incident: Sunk Costs, Suppressing Fire and the Glassblower

"David, sunk cost is a tricky beast. I decided to keep my car for an extra year mainly due to the cost of a clutch replacement…I want to make sure I get my money's worth out of it."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Free Newsletter

Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 58: IF WE HAVE a long time horizon, we should aim to be owners—by buying our cars, our home and a diversified stock portfolio. The latter will make us part owners of companies large and small.

act

REASSESS YOUR emergency fund. Experts often recommend keeping three-to-six months of living expenses as an emergency fund. Just left a secure job to strike out on your own? You should probably hold more cash. Just retired? Now that losing your job is no longer a risk, you might shrink your emergency fund—and perhaps shutter it entirely.

Truths

NO. 51: ANNUAL FUND expenses are the biggest driver of differences in fund performance. A stock-fund manager may get lucky and post big gains, despite a hefty expense ratio. But that’s rare with bond and money-market funds: Investors should favor the lowest-cost funds, because they invariably dominate each category’s list of top five-year performers.

think

RISK TOLERANCE. Objectively, we may be able to take a lot of investment risk because we have a secure job and a long time horizon. But before we invest heavily in stocks, we should consider our personal tolerance for risk. This isn’t easy because it changes with the market: We grow braver as stock prices climb—and fearful when the market falls.

What we don’t do

Manifesto

NO. 58: IF WE HAVE a long time horizon, we should aim to be owners—by buying our cars, our home and a diversified stock portfolio. The latter will make us part owners of companies large and small.

Spotlight: Life Events

70 years old

I just turned 69 and I feel that there isn’t something quite right with that! The feeling has more to do with where I am in my life than feeling 69. I don’t know what it will be like when I turn 70.
To get prepared I read an article about being 70 and found a list, of all things, that I liked so much that wanted to share it.  Do you have anything to add to this list?

Read more »

Did we do this all wrong?

Looking up at the ceiling recovering from major surgery has this 70+ boomer rethinking life. Everyone on here has an intense interest in personal finance. Most of us are boomers.  Our parents were the Greatest Generation who lived the Depression and fought the war then shared their stories of sacrifice. We’ve read the Wall Street Journal, especially when Jonathan was there, financial papers, magazines and websites galore. My guess is that our playbook is pretty much the same:  get an education,

Read more »

Feeling Lucky

How much of our success is due to luck?
As HumbleDollar’s U.S. readers have occasionally noted, we’ve all been lucky in one crucial way: We live in 2024 in what’s arguably the most economically successful nation ever. That’s meant large swaths of the population have enjoyed financial success, even if they weren’t the best students, or the hardest workers, or the most talented employees.
But our luck doesn’t end there. Before we persuade ourselves that our success was solely due to our own talents and efforts,

Read more »

Times Like These

I really feel for people  who are unexpectedly losing their jobs late career because of the DOGE cuts.
I experienced something similar when I was pushed out of my 36 year banking job at age 59. I was a good performer, but when they want to get you they get you.
I struggled for a couple of years but the good news is that I finally figured things out and at age 70 I’m the happiest I’ve ever been.

Read more »

Don’t Discount Luck

Ben Carlson’s column today is titled “The Ovarian Lottery”. Where and when you were born has a whole lot to do with how your life turns out. You could be capable of becoming a great artist, but if you were born female for most of human history you wouldn’t be able to reach your potential. Born a serf in medieval Europe? You were going to stay a serf. Sure, hard work helps, but if your particular talent isn’t in demand,

Read more »

A Diamond Wedding Anniversary

I wore a gown of Chantilly lace—the sun caught the sparkles in my bridal headdress. My husband was resplendent in his tuxedo—the sun was shining on a beautiful April morning —Our wedding day, 60 years ago, April, 1965.
While The choice of a spouse is among the most important decisions most people ever make,  it’s a choice that comes with no guarantees of long term happiness.  That said, we all have an ideal vision of the person we would like to marry. 

Read more »

Spotlight: Ehart

Bad News Bonds

EXPERTS HAVE LATELY been recommending that investors shift some money from short-term bonds—which offer the highest yield these days—to longer-term issues, whose prices are more sensitive to interest rates. Had I followed this advice—and I almost did—I’d have quickly lost money in what’s supposed to be the safe part of my portfolio. Bonds did indeed rally from their October 2022 lows, but have pulled back since early May. Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (symbol: VGIT) was down 4.2% from its May 4 peak through last Friday, while iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) was off 8.8% during that stretch. The “smart money” said prepare to profit if interest rates fall, perhaps because the economy slips into a recession. But that’s a big “if.” The flipside: You lose if rates rise. That’s why I’ve generally preferred short-term Treasurys in my portfolio. That limits my exposure to interest-rate fluctuations and provides a hedge against the risk of falling stock prices. Short-term Treasury prices won’t decline much if rates keep rising, though they also won’t gain much if rates fall from here. An added bonus: Today, we’re enjoying generous yields on short-term bonds and cash investments, including some guaranteed by the federal government. Indeed, those high rates have lately drawn me to money market funds and certificates of deposit (CDs). The bond market got a bad case of the willies in August, burning those who hold interest-sensitive assets. Now, Wall Street is gripped by the fear of rising rates. Budget deficits and the national debt really do matter—finally—or so some are saying. On top of that, the U.S. Treasury must issue a lot of new debt at higher rates, while foreign countries are reducing their Treasury holdings. Prepare for interest rates to be “higher for longer,” some experts are predicting. I prefer not…
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Who’s Counting?

INVESTORS SHOULD diligently track two things: their portfolio’s performance and their asset allocation. To monitor overall performance is humbling. If you’re like me, you eventually realize how much your cockamamie market-beating schemes have lagged the market—and it dawns on you that you could do much better by simply mimicking the market with index funds and occasionally rebalancing. What percentage of your portfolio should be in U.S. shares, foreign stocks, cash, bonds and other assets? Only you can answer that. Question is, do you know where your assets are right now? Does that mix fit with your preferences and risk tolerance? How has it affected your performance? I monitor my year-to-date performance and asset allocation in one place: an Excel spreadsheet that’s also a kind of investment journal. In it, I have running notes about moves I’ve made and those I’m considering. While I do use some tools offered by Yahoo Finance and Morningstar, I haven’t found any online portfolio trackers totally to my liking. My spreadsheet is customizable to my precise and ever-evolving preferences, even if I do have to manually enter some data. The accompanying example is just a simplified illustration. My real spreadsheet has a lot more rows and columns. For instance, with the help of Morningstar data, I monitor how much I have invested in China, which I want to strictly limit. I use the Fidelity Freedom Index 2035 Fund (symbol: FIHFX) as my benchmark. Its stock-bond mix is similar to what I’ve chosen for myself at this point in my life, but my portfolio has unique aspects that are important to me, such as the limit on China. My return was a little behind the Fidelity fund last year and I’m a little ahead this year. One reason my returns have improved: About 40% of my…
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Rising Risk

IT’S BUYER BEWARE for bond fund investors. Three big risks have snuck up on today’s fund shareholders, which—taken together—mean higher volatility and lower returns. I discussed these pitfalls with Ben Johnson, director of global exchange-traded fund research at Morningstar, the Chicago investment research firm. “In recent years, the market’s standards have loosened significantly and durations have lengthened,” Johnson told me. “People are generally willing to lend money to less creditworthy borrowers for longer terms…. That likely spells more risk and less return for the foreseeable future.”  Let’s count the ways that today’s market is less favorable for bond fund investors: Higher interest rate risk. Total bond market index funds—the bread-and-butter investment grade option for many investors, as well as a key building block for some balanced, asset allocation and target-date funds—are a lot more vulnerable to rising rates than they used to be. Johnson noted that the duration of Vanguard Total Bond Market Index ETF has jumped to 6.6 years from almost 4.8 years in 2007. Duration is a measure of interest rate risk. That means investors stand to lose nearly 7% for every one percentage point increase in interest rates, versus less than 5% just 14 years ago. That’s 40% greater risk. That said, if interest rates fell, the rewards today would also be greater. More credit risk. Total bond market funds—which typically track the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index—carry more credit risk in their corporate bond holdings than they used to. In other words, there’s a greater chance that some of the bonds within the index will default. Slimmer rewards. The extra yield that these riskier-than-usual investment grade corporate bonds are paying over Treasury bonds is near record lows. “You’re getting paid incrementally less to take on incrementally more risk, which isn’t all that enticing a proposition,”…
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Different This Time

I’M DETERMINED NOT to repeat my mistakes of 2008-09. I was ruined by that financial crisis or, more accurately, I let it ruin me. I led into it with my chin. I’ll spare you the details of my personal situation in the years leading up to the crash, but the upshot is I was egotistical, financially reckless and looking for a big score. As the crisis unfolded, I piled risk upon risk, mistake upon mistake. I bought 2008 all the way down, loading up on many of the beaten-down financial names: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and even Lehman Brothers. Unfortunately, I purchased Goldman and Morgan Stanley with borrowed money, using my margin account. I had been using such leverage for years—within prudent limits, I thought. I calculated potential downsides but, of course, it was the potential gains that seized my imagination. The hard lesson for me? It wasn’t that margin investors can be forced to sell stocks in bear markets, particularly the worst and most sudden ones, leaving them no means to buy back in. I knew that. What I didn’t know is that brokerage firms can decide overnight that some securities are no longer marginable and hence they don’t count as collateral. E*Trade said I couldn’t borrow against my Goldman and Morgan Stanley shares anymore. I was forced to sell. Probably less than two months before the low. Then I was laid off at the end of 2009 and missed about a year of potential 401(k) contributions as the market recovered. I entered 2020 much poorer for my folly. But I have no debt today. The car is paid off and has many miles left on it. My big risk is getting laid off again—unfortunately, a real possibility, as it is for so many. But unlike 2008, I’m not picking…
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Limiting Risk of Rising Rates

An exercise I find useful — certainly more useful than trying to predict the future — is to ask myself, what are the main risks to my portfolio? Sometimes we have more riding on one potential outcome, or at risk from another, than we realize. The list of major risks is long, but higher-than-expected inflation and interest rates are pretty high up. Other than underweighting the mega-cap tech stocks for fear they will fall back to earth, the biggest risk I’ve chosen to protect against over the past few years is rising rates I’m not predicting higher rates. I’m not shorting Treasurys. If rates stay at current levels or fall, my stock funds, and thus my overall portfolio, should do fine. It’s just that my bond holdings, geared to limit rate risk, would lag the overall bond market index if rates fell (bond prices rise when rates go down). That’s because the index is heavy on Treasurys — since Uncle Sam is such a prodigious borrower — and has significant interest rate sensitivity. But that’s a risk I’m willing to take. I don’t want both my stock holdings and my bond holdings excessively vulnerable to an unexpected increase in rates. Here’s my approach to the 33% of my portfolio that’s in bonds. It’s broadly diversified — arguably overcomplicated, but I have many retirement accounts and an emergency fund. It’s duration (a measure of interest rate sensitivity) is just 2.7 versus 5.9 for the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (symbol: AGG), which tracks the overall investment grade bond market. To illustrate duration, the ETF would lose (or gain) 5.9% for a 1 percentage point rise (or fall) in interest rates. That’s more fluctuation than I’d like, though some experts say that with a recent starting yield of 4.6%, the risk/reward…
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No A for Effort

LESS IS MORE when it comes to investing. Less effort. Fewer transactions. Lower costs. Less worry. Lower taxes. Less ego. Less clickbait. We’re wired to try hard. To do well. Especially if you’ve had some success in your life, and built up some money to invest, you probably got there by working harder than others. Problem is, the same rule doesn’t apply to investing. There is no A for effort. But there is an F for frenetic. The good news is, there’s a simple way. You can grow wealth by matching the market—with index funds—instead of vainly trying to beat it. Broadly diversified low-cost balanced, asset allocation and target-date funds also can be good choices. It’s the pursuit of market-beating funds that can do us in, since past outperformance does not predict future outperformance. What will you do when yesterday’s top fund manager lags the market for the ensuing two or three years? Will you agonize, switch to the next hot fund, rinse and repeat? Just matching the market can be plenty lucrative. While we’re working, most of us will have the opportunity to invest regularly and let our money compound over several decades. Let’s assume you had done just that over the past 30 years. You made an initial $3,000 investment in a tax-deferred account on June 1, 1989, in the Vanguard 500 Index Fund. Then you added $400 a month through May 31, 2019. (In truth, you should try to invest more. This is just an eminently doable example, especially if you have a 401(k) with a company match.) According to PortfolioVisualizer.com, your money would have compounded at about 9% a year, in line with the historical average for U.S. stocks. Boring you say? What would you say to $717,000? I thought so. There’s no guarantee that your…
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